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History of AI
Image source
What are some successes of AI today?
IBM Watson
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http://www-03.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson/
NY Times article
Trivia demo
IBM Watson wins on Jeopardy (February 2011)
Self-driving cars
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Google’s self-driving car passes 300,000 miles (Forbes, 8/15/2012)
Nissan pledges affordable self-driving car models by 2020
(CNET, 8/27/2013)
Natural Language
• Speech technologies
• Google voice search
• Apple Siri
• Machine translation
• translate.google.com
• Comparison of several translation systems
Vision
• OCR, handwriting recognition
• Face detection/recognition: many consumer
cameras, Apple iPhoto
• Visual search: Google Goggles, search by image
• Vehicle safety systems: Mobileye
Mathematics
• In 1996, a computer program written by researchers
at Argonne National Laboratory proved a
mathematical conjecture unsolved for decades
• NY Times story: “[The proof] would have been called
creative if a human had thought of it”
• Mathematical software:
Games
• IBM’s Deep Blue defeated the reigning world chess
champion Garry Kasparov in 1997
• 1996: Kasparov Beats Deep Blue
“I could feel – I could smell – a new kind
of intelligence across the table.”
• 1997: Deep Blue Beats Kasparov
“Deep Blue hasn't proven anything.”
• In 2007, checkers was “solved” (though checkers
programs had been beating the best human players
for at least a decade before then)
• Science article
Logistics, scheduling, planning
• During the 1991 Gulf War, US forces
deployed an AI logistics planning and
scheduling program that involved up to
50,000 vehicles, cargo, and people
• NASA’s Remote Agent software operated the
Deep Space 1 spacecraft during two
experiments in May 1999
• In 2004, NASA introduced the MAPGEN
system to plan the daily operations for the
Mars Exploration Rovers
Robotics
• Mars rovers
• Autonomous vehicles
• DARPA Grand Challenge
• Self-driving cars
• Autonomous helicopters
• Robot soccer
• RoboCup
• Personal robotics
• Humanoid robots
• Robotic pets
• Personal assistants?
Towel-folding robot
YouTube Video
• J. Maitin-Shepard, M. Cusumano-Towner, J. Lei and P. Abbeel, Cloth
Grasp Point Detection based on Multiple-View Geometric Cues with
Application to Robotic Towel Folding, ICRA 2010
• More clothes folding
Origins of AI: Early excitement
1940s First model of a neuron (W. S. McCulloch & W. Pitts)
Hebbian learning rule
Cybernetics
1950s Turing Test
Perceptrons (F. Rosenblatt)
Computer chess and checkers (C. Shannon, A. Samuel)
Machine translation (Georgetown-IBM experiment)
Theorem provers (A. Newell and H. Simon,
H. Gelernter and N. Rochester)
1956 Dartmouth meeting: “Artificial Intelligence” adopted
Herbert Simon, 1957
“It is not my aim to surprise or shock you –
but … there are now in the world
machines that think, that learn and that
create. Moreover, their ability to do these
things is going to increase rapidly until –
in a visible future – the range of problems
they can handle will be coextensive with
the range to which human mind has been applied. More
precisely: within 10 years a computer would be chess
champion, and an important new mathematical
theorem would be proved by a computer.”
• Simon’s prediction came true – but forty years later
instead of ten
Harder than originally thought
• 1966: Eliza chatbot (Weizenbaum)
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“ … mother …” → “Tell me more about your family”
“I wanted to adopt a puppy, but it’s too young to be
separated from its mother.”
• 1954: Georgetown-IBM experiment
• Completely automatic translation of more than sixty Russian
sentences into English
• Only six grammar rules, 250 vocabulary words, restricted to
organic chemistry
• Promised that machine translation would be solved in three
to five years (press release)
• Automatic Language Processing Advisory Committee
(ALPAC) report (1966): machine translation has failed
• “The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak.” →
“The vodka is strong but the meat is rotten.”
Blocks world (1960s – 1970s)
Larry Roberts, MIT, 1963
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History of AI: Taste of failure
1940s
1950s
Late 1960s
Early 1970s
Late 1970s
First model of a neuron (W. S. McCulloch & W. Pitts)
Hebbian learning rule
Cybernetics
Turing Test
Perceptrons (F. Rosenblatt)
Computer chess and checkers (C. Shannon, A. Samuel)
Machine translation (Georgetown-IBM experiment)
Theorem provers (A. Newell and H. Simon,
H. Gelernter and N. Rochester)
Machine translation deemed a failure
Neural nets deprecated (M. Minsky and S. Papert, 1969)*
Intractability is recognized as a fundamental problem
The first “AI Winter”
*A sociological study of the official history of the perceptrons controversy
History of AI to the present day
1980s
Late 1980sEarly 1990s
Mid-1980s
Late 1980s
1990s-Present
Expert systems boom
Expert system bust; the second “AI winter”
Neural networks and back-propagation
Probabilistic reasoning on the ascent
Machine learning everywhere
Big Data
Deep Learning
History of AI on Wikipedia
AAAI Timeline
Building Smarter Machines: NY Times Timeline
NY Times article
What accounts for recent successes in AI?
• Faster computers
• The IBM 704 vacuum tube machine that played chess in
1958 could do about 50,000 calculations per second
• Deep Blue could do 50 billion calculations per second
– a million times faster!
• Dominance of statistical approaches,
machine learning
• Big data
• Crowdsourcing
Historical themes
• Moravec’s paradox
• “It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult
level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers,
and difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a oneyear-old when it comes to perception and mobility”
[Hans Moravec, 1988]
• Why is this?
• Early AI researchers concentrated on the tasks that they
themselves found the most challenging, abilities of animals
and two-year-olds were overlooked
• We are least conscious of what our brain does best
• Sensorimotor skills took millions of years to evolve, whereas
abstract thinking is a relatively recent development
Historical themes
• Silver bulletism (Levesque, 2013):
• “The tendency to believe in a silver bullet for AI, coupled with the
belief that previous beliefs about silver bullets were hopelessly naïve”
• Conceptual dichotomies (Newell, 1983):
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Symbolic vs. continuous
High-level vs. low-level modeling of mental processes
Serial vs. parallel
Problem solving vs. recognition
Performance vs. learning
• Boom and bust cycles
• Periods of (unjustified) optimism followed by periods of disillusionment
and reduced funding
• Image problems
• AI effect: As soon as a machine gets good at performing some task,
the task is no longer considered to require much intelligence
Philosophy of this class
• Our goal is to use machines to solve hard problems
that traditionally would have been thought to require
human intelligence
• We will try to follow a sound scientific/engineering
methodology
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Consider relatively limited application domains
Use well-defined input/output specifications
Define operational criteria amenable to objective validation
Zero in on essential problem features
Focus on principles and basic building blocks