Transcript chapter 4 - courses.psu.edu

CHAPTER 4
GATHERING INFORMATION AND
MEASURING MARKET
DEMAND
Important Topics of This Chapter
Modern MIS.
 Marketing research process.
 Marketing decision support system(MDSS).
 Forecasting and demand measurement.
 Estimating current demand.
 Estimating future demand.
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MODERN MARKETING
INFORMATION SYSTEM
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Marketing Information System:
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MIS consists of people, equipment, and procedures to
gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and distribute needed,
timely, and accurate information to marketing decision
makers.
Internal Record System:
» Order-to-payment cycle:
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Orders and invoices (EDI), fax and e-mails
» Sales information systems:
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Sales force automation (SFA)
MODERN MARKETING
INFORMATION SYSTEM
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Marketing Intelligence System:
» It is set of procedures and sources to obtain
everyday information about marketing
environment. Four steps to improve the
quality:
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Training/motivating the sales force
Motivate distributors, retailers and customers to send necessary
information
Mystery Shoppers
Syndicated research firms:
– A.C.Nielsen
Internal information centers:
– Collect information .
Customer advisory panels
MARKETING RESEARCH
SYSTEM
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Marketing Research:
– Designing, collection, analysis, reporting and
disseminating of information relevant to marketing
problems:
» Suppliers of Marketing Research:
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research department
research firms-custom and specialty(field service)
on line services
universities
syndicated research firms
Specialty line marketing research firms
MARKETING RESEARCH
PROCESS
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Define the Problem and Research Objectives:
» exploratory research
» descriptive research
» causal research.
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Developing Research Plan:
» Data sources
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secondary
primary data
» Research approaches
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observational
focus group research
survey research
behavioral data
Experimental
MARKETING RESEARCH
PROCESS (CONT.)
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Developing Research Plan (cont.)
» Research instruments-questionnaires
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closed-ended
open-ended
mechanical
» sampling plan:
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probability
non-probability.
» contact methods:
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mail survey
telephone survey
personal interviews(arranged or intercept).
Internet
MARKETING RESEARCH
PROCESS (CONT.)
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Data Collection:
» Interviewer errors
» Response errors
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Data Analysis:
» Quantitative tools-multivariate techniques
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Present findings:
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Frequency counts
Analysis of statistical results
Recommendations
Managerial Implications
Final research report
MARKETING RESEARCH
PROCESS (CONT.)
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The Characteristics of Good Marketing research:
» Scientific method:
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Hypothesis testing
» Research creativity:
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Innovative research
» Multiple methods:
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Sources of better information
» Interdependence of models and data
» Value and cost of information:
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Value of information
» Healthy skepticism:
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Assumptions
» Ethical marketing
MARKETING RESEARCH
PROCESS (CONT.)
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Overcoming Barriers:
» A narrow conception of research:
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Some managers think it is a fact finding operations
» Uneven caliber of marketing researchers
» Late and occasional erroneous findings:
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Some managers do not trust the findings
» Personality differences:
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Line and staff people
MARKETING DECISION
SUPPORT SYSTEM
MDSS is a coordinated collection of data with
supporting software by which an organization
gathers and interprets relevant information. It
includes internal and external information,
state of the art data base approach, application
models(call plan, detailer, brandaid, mediac,
geolone, promoter, adcad, cover story), user
friendly computer language, graphic features.
STATISTICAL TOOLS
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Multivariate Techniques:
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Discriminant Analysis
Factor Analysis
Cluster Analysis
Conjoint Analysis
Multidimensional Scaling-perceptional map
Simulation Models:
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Markov-process model
Queuing model
New-product pretest models
Sales-response models
FORECASTING AND
DEMAND MEASUREMENT
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The Measurement of market demand:
» Product level:
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Product line and brands
» Time level:
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Short, medium and long term
» Market level:
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Domestic and global
FORECASTING AND
DEMAND MEASUREMENT
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Which Market to measure:
» Potential:
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Total number of consumers
» Available:
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Group of consumers who has interest
» Qualified;
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Consumers who have money and interest
» Target:
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Company wants to attract
» Penetrated:
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Consumers who are buying companies product
A VOCABULARY FOR
DEMAND MEASUREMENT
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Market Demand:
» Market demand is the total volume that would be bought by a defined
customer group:
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Market demand function:
– It is the difference between potential, forecasted and actual sales.
» Market forecast:
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Demand estimates
» Market potential:
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Limit of market demand
» Company demand:
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Company’s market demand in a given time period
» Company sales forecast:
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Expected sales level of the company
» Company sales quota:
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Defining and stimulating sales
» Sales budget:
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Expected sales volume and current purchasing, production and cash flow decision
ESTIMATING CURRENT
DEMAND
total market potential(Q=nqp)
market forecast
sales(demand) potential
sales(demand) forecast
ESTIMATING CURRENT
DEMAND (CONT.)
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Total Market Potential:
» Suspect pool
» Prospect pool
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Area Market Potential
» Market-buildup method:
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Difficult to gather information
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
North American Industrial Classification (NAICS)
» Multiple factor index method:
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Buying Power Index:
– BPI=.5Y + .3 R + .2P Where:
Y=income, R=retail sales, P=population
Industry Sales and market Share:
» A. C. Nielsen reports
ESTIMATING FUTURE
DEMAND
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Survey of Buying Intentions/Purchase Probability
Scales
» SRC of the University of Michigan
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Sales Force Composites/opinions
Expert Opinions
Past-Sales Analysis
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Time series analysis
Exponential smoothing
Statistical demand analysis
Econometric analysis
Market Test Method
» New product introduction