Transcript BAE Systems Australia Tracey Clavell Head of Estimating

BAE Systems Australia
Tracey Clavell
Head of Estimating and Pricing – Corporate
Defence Cost Estimating Conference
Adelaide July 2011
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Quotes from Wikipedia
• Estimation is the calculated approximation of a result which
is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.
• In statistics,
• estimation theory and estimator, for topics involving
inferences about probability distributions
• forecasting and prediction, for estimation of yet-to-be
observed quantities
• In mathematics, approximation or estimation typically means
finding upper or lower bounds of a quantity that cannot
readily be computed precisely
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End to End Estimating at BAE Systems Australia
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Cradle to Grave Estimating
DCP
1st Pass
2nd Pass
FIS
Pre Contract
Post Contract
Design
Subcontracts / Suppliers
VOP
PBC
Subcontracts / Suppliers
CCP &EAC’s
VOP
PBC
Processes
Techniques & Metrics
Tools
People & Professionalisation
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Estimating Techniques
•
Top Down Vs Bottom up
•
Multiple Methods
•
Metrics
•
Risk and Uncertainty
•
Three Point Estimating
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Multiple methods of Estimating
Little Confidence
1 method per bid
More Confidence
Multiple methods per bid
Parametric
Parametric
Detailed
Analogous
Analogy
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Detailed
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True Planning – Top Down Parametric Estimating
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Types of Parametric Estimating
•
Should Costs for Subcontracts / Suppliers
•
Design for Cost
•
Cost as an Independent Variable
•
Top Down Validation
•
Cost Benefit Analysis
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Benefits of Parametric Estimating
•
Supports Bid / No Bid decisions
•
Supports Strategic Reform Program
•
To validate / challenge Subcontractor quotes
•
Supports initial design costing
•
Additional validation point for other methods
•
Quicker to generate ROMs and Indicative Pricing
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Parametric Journey Thus Far
Evaluation of
Software
License & trg
True Planning
plus ICT trg &
Licenses
Logistics
Training
Tool Calibration
& Licences
Hardware trg
& Licenses
2005
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2006
2007
2008
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2009
2011
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People and Developing Capability
•
Standard Position Descriptions
•
Developing You Program
•
Competency Matrix
•
Career Ladder
•
External membership and accreditation
•
Diversity and Inclusion
•
Mentoring and Leadership
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Estimating & Pricing Tools
•
True Planning - Parametric Estimating
•
Phoenix - Estimating Capture Tool
•
Open Plan – Scheduling
•
ProPricer – Pricing Tool
•
Predict – Risk Collation and Monte Carlo
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Phoenix – Estimating Capture Tool
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Lessons Learned
•
DAREO
•
Stability & Sensitivity
•
Management of the Supply Chain
•
Indexation & Cost Principles
•
Demonstrate Value for Money
•
Performance Based Contracting
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End to End Estimating – Getting the Balance Right
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All Done
Any Questions ?
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