Transcript Probabilistic Forecasting for Local Flooding

Probabilistic Forecasting for Local
Flooding
David Leedal, Paul Smith, Keith
Beven and Peter Young
Lancaster Environment Centre
www.floodrisk.org.uk
EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1
Local Flood Forecasting
• Level sensors are cheap and easily networked
Depth
sensor
Data…
fittings
GPRS/IP
logger
900
£500
950
£400 Total: £500
£50
Local Flood Forecasting
• Level sensors are
quick to installation
• Work with rainfall or
level input
• Provide a forecast
where it’s needed
Local Flood Forecasting
Data Based Mechanistic (DBM) Modelling Approach
• Simple nonlinearity + transfer function model within
stochastic data assimilation framework
• Identification of State Dependent Nonlinearity directly
from data added in FRMRC1
• Further development of data assimilation from local
sensors in FRMRC2
River Eden Sensor Network
Funded by FRMRC2
to
(a) Test HD model
predictions and
(b) Test local flood
forecasting
Local flood
forecasting test
site:
Stead
McAlpin
Local Forecasting at Stead McAlpin (river
Caldew nr. Carlisle)
• Stead McAlpin Factory – flooded in Jan 2005 (almost in 2009 &
2010)
Forecasting Results
Calibration:
2009
event
Testing: NovNov
2010
event
2 hour forecast
4 hour forecast
Mean forecast
Standard error
Hourly observations
5 hour forecast
Summary
• Local flood forecasts might be useful to local
stakeholders, even with short to medium forecast lead
times
• FRMRC2 has produced a simple way of providing local
flood forecasts with estimates of forecast uncertainty
using local level sensors and on-line data assimilation
• Further work on self-calibrating models is on-going –
install-and-leave
Acknowledgement
The research reported in this presentation was conducted as part of the
Flood Risk Management Research Consortium with support from the:
• Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
• Department of Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs/Environment Agency Joint Research Programme
• United Kingdom Water Industry Research
• Office of Public Works Dublin
• Northern Ireland Rivers Agency
Data were provided by the EA and the Ordnance Survey.
www.floodrisk.org.uk
EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1