Transcript hc43409
Climate Literacy Summation Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Manageable BAD Humanity Blew It Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change An Ecosystem Literally Melts Away Waveform of Concern Global Sea Level Rise Our basic Expectation Long wavelength absorption properties of our atmosphere increase the surface temperature- Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by CO2 Ice Core data Provides compelling qualitative evidence of the relation between temperature and CO2 But time resolution is insufficient to truly show if CO2 is a driver or follower of temperature change Hockey Stick Problems Role of urbanization may not be adequately account for Average temperature of the Earth may not be a physically meaningful quantity. Reliability of multi-century record is questionable Two D representation is most convincing Data Period: 1976 - 2000 Amplification of Polar Warming Note the significant slop change at 2005: Methane Feedback signature? Methane Potential role of methane is larger than CO2 GWP = 21 Scales with population growth Released from permafrost Released from hydrate deposits Emissions now rising again due to global wetlands returning from prolonged drought Competition among anthropogenic forces Uncertain Role of Aerosol The Physical scattering properties are crucial to determining total dimming We know Aerosols are Important Volcanic Eruptions provide a natural lab Feedbacks are huge uncertainty Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Ocean sink now less than before Ocean PH Rising Ocean sink capacity no longer scales with increasing emissions Future Scenarios Really, Three Choices BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently react to disasters as they come A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in time B1: Value system change: understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordingly Carbon Trading Emission space is fixed bid or contract on emissions Effective trading requires many sources of generation What process determines size of emission space? What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap? Carbon Market Is now not behaving according to original expectations of rapid growth: In 2009 it is now much cheaper to put Carbon into the Atmosphere than to capture and store it Carbon, Capture and Storage Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS? CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested. Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep ocean CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stabilization Stabilization and Wedges 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per year This is a global effort Again, real carbon market could help provide various incentives And remember, global carbon emissions are now increasing annually (except for the 2008 global meltdown correction) Gaining a Wedge • Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg • or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000 • Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25% • Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials • Commit to building large scale renewable energy projects at the TerraWatt level. Unambiguous climate change detection • The intrinsic difficulty is easily forgotten by most policy makers • The more we learn about climate science the more we understand the importance of multi-decadal variability in the climate baseline which clearly impacts regional climate. Regional Climate Change: Raisins Along with Malaria And we Policy Wank our way along "The United States is committed to reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012. “ Policy oops Economics: Resource Depletion Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000 The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history! (until 2008 correction) China emerges Global Carbon Intensity is Increasing Which box do we want to be in? We Are At Peak Oil!! 85 MBD (but now down to 83 averaged over last 6 months) Total accessible reserve = 900 BBL Annual use = 365x85= 31 BBL/year 30 years left – end of story What to Do? Subversive videos on You Tube don’t hurt Drive less; Period. Period. Period. Better transport pods (100 mpg) Change Values: nature is not a consumable; Wilderness is Everywhere; Global Famine should everything is sacred not be a market based outcome Properly factor in avoidance costs in economic modeling of climate change Make markets have ethical dimensions What to Do II Stabilize this so that alternative energy fiscal baselines can be set and our collective chain can stop being yanked. IPCC Scenarios Once again, three real choices Remain Market Driven Hope that technological leaps occur Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness that is needed to reduce personal consumption. Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)3.5 Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal? Your generation is inheriting the legacy of consumption driven greed 20 Million College Students Have inherited this world Your Choice Matrix: Give up or Not: