Transcript Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public Provide Solid Science

Educating the Public
About Climate Change
Issues - the Role of
Outreach
By
Barrett N. Rock
Complex Systems Research Center
University of New Hampshire
[email protected]
The Public has Many Climate
Change Questions
• Is climate change or global warming real?
• Isn’t the current warming trend just part of a
natural cycle?
• How do we know human activities are the
cause?
• Can we do anything about climate change?
Useful Approaches in
Dealing with the Public
• Providing Solid Science;
Pelée
Krakatoa
Agung St. Helens
(Bali)
Pinatubo
The Solar Cycles
11 years
100+ years
(Taken from NERA Overview, 2001)
•
CO2 exists in two
stable isotopic
forms in the air 12CO (light CO )
2
2
13
and CO2 (heavy
CO2);
•
Green plants
selectively take
up 12CO2 (light
CO2);
•
When fossil fuels
are burned, they
emit more light
CO2 than occurs
in air because
the fuels were
originally made
from green
plants.
Ambient “Heavy”
13CO Concentrations
2
Total Atmospheric
CO2 Concentrations
2005 the warmest year on record
1998 the previous warmest year
Sunspot activity
Baseline represents average temperatures for 1861-1899; 2005 includes the full year 2005.
No cooling
volcanoes along
with increasing
sunspot activity
First Half
20th Century
Warming
(Natural)
Mid-Century
Cooling
(Urban
Pollution)
Latter Half
20th Century
Warming
(GHGs)
Baseline represents average temperatures for 1861-1899; 2005 includes the full year 2005.
Useful Approaches in
Dealing with the Public
• Providing Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
600
Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted
Fossil Fuel Burning
500
The EPICA Ice Core Project
400
300
280
CO2 [ppmv]
260
240
220
200
180
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (yr BP)
200,000
100,000
0
600
Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted
Fossil Fuel Burning
500
The EPICA Ice Core Project
400
Today’s CO2 Concentration 384 ppm
300
280
Pre-Industrial Maximum
CO2 [ppmv]
260
240
The Range of Natural Variability
220
200
180
Pre-Industrial Minimum
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (yr BP)
200,000
100,000
0
Useful Approaches in
Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
Spatial Variation of Annual Temperature Trend 1899-2000
1.8oF over past 100 years
Linear trend in annual temperature (oF) from 1899-2000 for the Northeast. The change
was estimated from a linear regression of annual average temperature for each station.
Use Regional Issues - New England Fall Colors
Changing Maple Sugaring Conditions
8-hour Average Peak Concentration
0-50 ppb
51-100 ppb
101-150 ppb
151-200 ppb
201-300 ppb
Bad Ozone Day
(8-hour peak values)
http://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.displaymaps#map
Useful Approaches in
Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
• Make the Data Relevant;
Temperature °C
Historic
Historic –10
CGCM1
CGCM1-10
Hadley
Hadley-10
1.8oF
(Taken from NERA Overview, 2001)
Temperature °F
New England Regional Mean Historic and Model Scenario
Annual Minimum Temperature Change
10oF
6oF
(10o F)
(6o F)
Useful Approaches in
Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
• Make the Data Relevant;
• Be Honest;
What Must be Done to Avert
Catastrophic Climate Change
Averting catastrophic climate change” is defined as limiting
the increase in average global surface temperature to 2°
C (3.6° F) above the pre-industrial level (pre-1750). This
will require stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide and its equivalents (“CO2e”) to 450 parts
per million by volume (“450 ppmv CO2e”). To have a
greater-than-50% chance of reaching the goal will require
limits very close to:
(a) Capping the growth of all U.S. emissions by 2010;
(b) Reducing emissions by no less than 3.33% per year
from the baseline year of 2010; and
(c) Eliminating all human-induced emissions by 2040.
Useful Approaches in
Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
• Make the Data Relevant;
• Be Honest;
• But Also be Hopeful;
Recent findings from “Northeast Climate Choices” published in
2006 by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
The difference between “higher” (business as usual) and “Lower”(an active
effort to reduce emissions by 3% per year). Emissions scenarios depend on our
energy choices - fossil fuels vs. alternative energy
5-15 years out
40-50 years out
80-90 years out
Assumptions made for the
Lower Emissions Scenario
Extensive use of Public Transportation;
• Reduced Vehicle Miles Traveled;
• More Fuel Efficient Cars (Higher CAFE
Standards at 34 (2015) and 50 MPG (2030);
• Use Low Carbon Fuels (Gasohol, E85);
• Aggressive Development of Alternative sources
of Energy (Wind, Solar, Tidal, etc.);
• Improved Home Energy Efficiency (CFLs,
Increased insulation, Energy-STAR Appliances,
Passive Solar, etc.).
•
Useful Approaches in
Dealing with the Public
• Provide Solid Science;
• Use Compelling Graphics;
• Include Local/Regional Information;
• Make the Data Relevant;
• Be Honest;
• But Also be Hopeful.
Examples of
Successful Programs
that Communicate
Climate Change Issues
with the Public
The New England Regional Assessment
Available On-Line at: http://www.necci.sr.unh.edu/
Reducing Residential Greenhouse Gas Emissions
through the New Hampshire Carbon Challenge
Denise Blaha and Julia Dundorf
Households Have a Critical Role
in Stabilizing Climate Change
At least 40% of U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions
come from households:
• Vehicles
• Home Heating
• Electricity
The New Hampshire Carbon Challenge
A UNH initiative
committed to providing
NH residents and
communities with the
information, tools and
support necessary for
households to reduce
their CO2 emissions by
10,000 pounds per year.
COMMUNITY-WIDE CHALLENGES
• Town-wide Carbon Challenges
• Organization Challenges
• Employee Challenges
• School Challenges
Our Google Map of Challenge Takers
Strategies for Success:
Build Community (Make Carbon Reduction Fun!)
Strategies for Success:
Recognize Actions and Achievement
Bumper stickers and window decals for Challenge takers
Strategies for Success
Recognize Actions and Achievement
Monthly
“Climate Heroes”
NH Carbon Challenge Achievements
• 115 public presentations on climate change have led to
household actions by approximately 6000 residents.
• 2.8 millions tons CO2 committed to be reduced
• $340,000 to be saved in reduced energy costs
• Developed “Climate Change Champions” workshop series to
train 40-60 presenters to give talks in their communities
• Collaborating with other New England states to regionalize
efforts
Lessoned Learned
• Behavior change is really difficult; many obstacles exist.
• Focus on communities (towns, businesses, faith-based
organizations, civic groups) is ESSENTIAL to galvanizing
action.
• Information alone is insufficient to bring about change
• Simple changes (like switching light bulbs) often lead to
more substantial actions and deeper cuts in household
CO2 emissions
Forest Watch
Bridging Science and Education Through
Ground-Truth Studies of White Pine Stands
Consider the Hybrid Option
Remember, there are 25 Pounds of CO2 in every
Gallon of Gas!
Source: W. Eugene Smith The Family of Man Exhibition
What Will the Future Be? Our Decisions Today Will Shape Tomorrow