Transcript 09_CC_Management_N_Deutschmann

Possible Management
Solutions – Strategies–
of the Climate Change
Problem
19.12.2006
15:15-15:35
Nils Deutschmann
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Thoughts…(of economists)
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It is much cheaper to relocate the
population of the southern ocean islands on
the costs of the industrial countries, of for
example Australia or Indonesia, than to put
a burden on the economy by reducing the
climate gases.
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2 Views of Climate Change
(Solutions)
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Cause  Effect (natural science)
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Cost  Benefit (economic view)
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Cause  Effect
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Climate damage = vulnerability * climate
change
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Means that damage depends not only on
change, but also on the vulnerability
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Who is vulnerable?
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Water-dependent ecosystems:
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Tropics
Polar regions
…because of
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Agriculture
Tourism
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Cost  Benefit
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Benefit of climate protection = avoided
climate damage – mitigation costs $ adaptation costs $
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OK?
NO?
WHY NOT?
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Cost  Benefit (Problem because…)
1.
2.
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… of giving objects a price $
… of giving mitigation, adaptation
measures and climate damage a price $
… not all political decisions are CostBenefit orientated
… of a global and generational injustice
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Therefore: Cause  Effect (natural science)
Global Targets
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Anthropogenic global problems have to be solved
globally
United Nations
UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on CC)
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Rio Conference June 1992
Article 2
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Stabilize CO2 so that…
… Natural ecosystem adaptation
… No harm to agriculture
… No harm to economy
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Therefore: Cause  Effect (natural science)
Global Targets
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European Union
1993. Council Meeting (25th June 1996 Luxemburg)
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Global mean temperature increase 2°C after industrialization
Atmospheric CO2 < 550ppm
Goals formulated on:
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Council of EU-Environment Ministers
6th EAP (Environment Action Program)
Enquete Commission “Protection of the Earth’s Atmosphere” of the
German Parliament (1990ies)
WBGU 1995 (Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung)
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Sondergutachten 2003 zur 9. VSK (Vertragsstaatenkonferenz)
Tony Blair’s conference 2005 “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change”
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What to do?
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Mitigation (Vermeidung)
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Adaptation (Anpassung)
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Technological progress in carbon-free industry
Intelligent and flexible social organisation
Laissez-Faire-Strategy (Ignoring-Strategy)
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No moral doubts
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What to do?
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Geo-engineering
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Global atmospheric
modification
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Screening out sunlight
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Space mirrors
Stratospheric dust
Cloud stimulation
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Iron fertilization
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Pro
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More phytoplankton
Less CO2
Dead plankton sinks to ocean ground
(CO2 is bound)
More phytoplankton = more food for other
species  more food for human population
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Iron fertilization
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Contra
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Marine ecosystem is changed
The decay of phytoplankton decreases the oxygen
concentration in the ocean
Microbiological activity under low oxygen levels may result
in high methane and di-nitrate monoxide concentrations
The fertilization would have to take place in the southern
ocean, as only there the water sinks down and therefore
takes the CO2 to the ocean floor
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Schematic diagram of possible CCS systems
SRCCS Figure TS-1
Overview 1
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Methods for storing CO2 in deep underground geological formations
SRCCS Figure TS-7
Storage options
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Methods of ocean storage
SRCCS Figure TS-9
Ocean storage
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Loss of overall power plant efficiency as a consequence of CO2 capture
SRCCS Figure TS-11
Power plant with CO2 capture
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Geo-engineering
Future Reality
or Fiction?
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Thanks for your attention!
Comments for Nils Deutschmann
from Manfred Stock
1.
To be finished .....