Transcript Lesson18bClimate change government - School

The CLIMATE CHANGE players:
media, government, business and
the public
Cameron Dunn
Chief Examiner
World at Risk
Feb 2008
•The Media
•Stabilization wedges
•Government
•Business
•The Public
One form of direct action
THE MEDIA – friend or foe?
• Coverage
increase
might suggest
‘friend’
• The issue has
soared since
2003-04
Source: Oxford Uni Centre for the Environment
• “Climate Change causes
new Epoch”
Independent
• “Blame cosmic rays not
CO2 for warming up the
planet”
The Times
• “Climate chaos? Don't
believe it”
The Telegraph
• “Only science can save us
from climate catastrophe”
Guardian
Headlines a mixture of the unfamiliar,
confusing and catastrophic.
Public opinion?
• The public’s understanding is growing, but
slowly
• The issue is rated high, but others are higher.
• About 25% think ‘too much fuss is made’ of GW
Source: MORI, 2006
Confused? hardly surprising
Global population growth to
13 billion
Rapid economic globalisation
Clean technology; population
peaks mid century
CO2 stabilised at 2000 levels
Graphic courtesy of IPCC 4th Assessment 2007
Stabilization
wedges
• Aims to show that
stabilization and reduction
can be achieved.
• Reductions begin in a
small way and grow
• Range of economic
sectors are involved,
spreading the ‘pain’.
• Wedges involve different
sectors and players
• The basic idea is to avoid
‘dangerous’ climate
change by stabilizing at
about 450pmm CO2.
The Guardian / Princeton University
Who needs to do what ?
1 Industry
EU Emissions Trading Scheme
2 Renewables
Government Policy and Planning
3 Buildings
Architects, Designers, Codes
4 Agriculture
Farmers and consumers
5 Transport
Local & Regional Government
6 Forestry
Farmers and Land Managers
7 Waste
Public and Local Government
International Governance: The ETS
• The EU carbon trading scheme largely focuses
on industry and energy suppliers
Efficiency: Government action and business
technology
• There are about 600 million cars today,
with 2 billion projected for 2055.
• Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s
cars (fuel tax / excise duty)
• Produce today’s electric capacity with
double today’s efficiency (coal plant
efficiency is 32% today) (ETS)
• Use best efficiency practices in all
residential and commercial buildings
• Replacing all the world’s incandescent
bulbs with low-energy ones would
provide 25% of one wedge
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
• Existing technology that
could be up-scaled
(there are 4 such plants
in operation, in Norway,
Canada and Algeria)
• To offset a whole wedge,
CO2 equal to the
amount of oil extracted
every year would need
to be captured.
• By 2055, 3500 1 million
tonnes per annum
facilities would be
needed.
Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey
Government: Energy Policy
• Triple the world’s nuclear electricity
capacity by 2055 is a possibility
• About 1000 new power stations would
be needed, at a rate of 25 per year
• Essentially none have been built since
the mid 1990s, although they are
planned.
• Phasing out exiting nuclear power
plants would create the need for
another half wedge of emissions cuts
• Install 2 million wind turbines to replace
coal
• A wedge from wind = increasing
current capacity by a factor of 50
• An wedge would require a land area
equal to about 4% of Australia
• Install 20,000 square
kilometers by 2054
• A wedge of solar
electricity would mean
increasing current
capacity 700 times
• Scale up current global
ethanol production 50
fold
• Using current
technology one wedge
requires planting an
area the size of India
with biofuels crops
Farming and Forests
• Eliminate tropical
deforestation and
double the rate of new
forest planting
• One wedge would
require new forests
over an area the size of
Australia
• Use conservation
tillage on all cropland
(1600 million hectares )
compared to the 110
million hectares today.
Local Government: Planning
Austin,
Texas
Large solar rebate encourages this energy source,
green buildings in a transport accessible, affordable
mixed use schemes makes it a leader.
Portland,
Oregon
44% of energy from HEP; the first USA city to set
about reducing its carbon footprint. 13% travel by
public transport, 2% by bike, and 11% car pool
St Paul,
Minnesota
Plans to reach a 20 percent reduction of 1988 C02
levels by 2020. Light rail, car share, 20% renewable
energy goal.
Oakland,
California
50% renewable energy by 2017; 30% of food from
within 100km being supported by 6 farmers markets;
faster planning system for green buildings.
Denver,
Colorado
‘Greenprint Denver’ – solar power plants, largest
light rail system in the USA, almost 100 energy
efficient large buildings
What drives business to change?
•Kyoto
•EU ETS (or similar)
•Security of energy supply
and rising prices
•Business opportunities –
new markets and cost
savings
•First mover advantage –
anticipating that change will
become ‘forced’
•Brand value and public
perception
How are businesses impacting
climate change?
•For many years businesses
such as Exon, Mobil, Shell and
Ford all funded research for
the Global Climate Coalition to
find information that
countered the argument of
global warming- why do you
think they did this?
•Many attitudes from these
TNCs have changed for a
number of reasons! They
include…..
How are businesses impacting
climate change?
•Moral and public pressure to protect, not
destroy the environment
•Fears about energy supply, linked to high oil
prices
•Increased moves by government towards
taxing carbon emissions
How are businesses impacting
climate change?
•Have a look at some of the following TNCs
and note down some of the measures they
are taking to tackle GW
•www.bp.com (big section on alternative
energy)
•www.shell.com
•www.mobil.com
Corporations
• DUPONT reduced GHG 72% on 1990 levels by
2003 and saved US$2 billion
• IBM reduced emissions 37.5% on 1990 levels
by 2004 and saved US$791 million
• 3M 37% reduction in worldwide emissions
between 1990 and 2004
• BT reduced energy-related CO2 emissions 71%
between 1991 and 2004. £1.1 billion saved.
Walmart – an unlikely convert?
• Wal-Mart’s ‘Sustainability 360’
programme.
• Driven by ‘green’ CEO (H. Scott
Lee)
• Pledges to cut carbon dioxide
emissions (it emits over 20
million tonnes pa) in existing
stores by 20%
• Make its 7000 trucks 50% more
energy efficient by 2015 (saving
$300 million)
• Reduce packaging by 5% by
2013.
• Combination of PR, turning a
poor reputation around and
increasing profits.
Hybrid or hype? Yanks drive 40%
further for groceries than in the
1980s
We, the public
• Governments need to provide
structural change i.e. the
energy mix.
• Local Government needs to
provide locally sustainable
plans i.e. recycling, transport
and building infrastructure.
• A Government legal,
regulatory and tax framework
can incentivize business to
provide the required
technology
• People are largely required to
undertake behavioural
change
Cars – changing our behaviour
• Softly-softly
approach in the
UK
• Bus lanes
• Pedestrianisation
• Congestion
Charging (toll
roads)
• Fuel duty
• VED
• Efficiency ratings
New car sales
• CO2 linked VED
introduced in 2001
• There does seem to
be shift out of bands
E-G
• Average emissions fell
from 185 to 167 grams
or CO2 / km 19992006
• Estimates suggest
differences of £150
between bands are
needed
% of UK car sales by VED tax band
A
2006
B
C
D
E
F
2000
G
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% all sales
Is it car tax, or is it petrol?
A litre cost 75p in 2000 and 92p in
2006
Do we actually try?
•In 2006 British Airways asked
customers to offset the carbon
emissions that their flight
would cost (ranging on av btw
£5- £15) less than 1% of
passengers paid!
•Similarly Greenpeace offered
train tickets to domestic BA
passengers, saying flights do 10
times more damage to
environment than the train.
Few people took up this option
Coldplay try!!
•To make their 2nd and 3rd albums Coldplay
offset their carbon emissions by financing
the planting of 10 000 mango trees in
Karnataka in India and supporting a forest in
Chiapas, Mexico
Conclusions
•Danger that the media turn the public off?
•Stabilization wedges are a useful way for students to think about
reducing emissions
•Governments role is largely structural; in most MEDCs the tax
system will be heavily used
•Local Governments role is critical in changing behaviour; without
local infrastructure change on an individual level is difficult
•US cities perhaps show the way – they have considerable
autonomy and therefore power, which has largely ignored Federal
policy