Transcript Vulnerability Indicators + Assessment

Vulnerability indicators
and their relation to the measure selection
Source FAO
Natasha Marinova
ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting
30 March 2011, Budapest
DPSIR Framework
Water Scarcity – Water stress
Drivers
Pressures
Climate change T
•
•
•
•
•
Population
GDP
Technology dev.
Markets
(from SCENES)
State
Impacts
Precipitation (and
propagation of its
effects on
hydrological cycle)
Evapotraspiration
Morphology
Topology
Soil water holding
capacity
•Structural changes
•Land use changes:
Urbanization
•Resource use
efficiency
•Management
practices
Jobs
Incomes
Quality and quantity of waste water
Droughts
Drivers Pressures
Climate
change T
•
•
•
•
•
Population
GDP
Technology dev.
Markets
(from SCENES)
Precipitation (and
propagation of its
effects on
hydrological cycle)
Evapotraspiration
Morphology
Topology
Soil water holding
capacity
•Structural changes
•Land use changes:
Urbanization
•Resource use
efficiency
•Management
practices
State
Changes in return period of drought
events
Impacts
•
Relative area
affected by droughts
•
People affected by
drought
Baseline: Minimum flow during a
drought event with recurrence period of
50 years D50base
Future (2050): Minimum flow during a
drought event with a recurrence period
of 10 years D10future
Severe drought event if D10future<
D50base
Not adjusted to the drought event water
demand
Quality and quantity of waste water
Jobs
Incomes
Population affected by droughts for EcF and SuE
scenarios
Agreement of model
runs projecting severe
drought events
• Large areas in the
Mediterranean Western
and Eastern Europe with
agreement of up to
100%
• Agreement of more than
half of the models in
parts of France, Ireland,
UK
• Heterogeneous result in
Central and Western
Europe
Floods
Drivers Pressures
Climate
change T
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population
GDP
Technology dev.
Markets
(from SCENES)
•
Precipitation (and
propagation of its
effects on
hydrological cycle)
Evapotraspiration
Morphology
Topology
Soil water holding
capacity
use changes –
urbanization,
deforestation,
development in flood
prone zone, control
of rivers
Level of protection
(design return level)
State
Changes in magnitude of 1-in-100 y
flood event
Impacts
•
Area affected by
floods
•
People affected by
floods
Land
•
•
•
•
River bed sedimentation
Loss of wetlands and riparian
zones
Soil sealing
Not properly planned
drainage
Jobs
Incomes
Relative area affected
by floods
• Based on the ensemble
median
• More than 80% in part of
the UK and the
Netherlands
• ~ 20% in southern
Norway, parts of
France, and the Alps
People affected by floods
Agreement of model
runs projecting severe
flood events
• Agreement of more than
half of the models in
parts of western France,
the Netherlands, Eastern
Europe and parts of UK,
Spain, Italy, Norway,
Sweden
• Low flood risk around
the Baltic see
Sea Level Rise
People affected by SLR, 2080
Source PESETA, Coastal Report
Thank you!