Transcript Implementation plan

WP5 : Social vulnerability and
adaptive capacity
Implementation plan
C. Lutoff, M.C. Llasat, I.Ruin
Key scientific issues
• How to reduce extreme events and climate
change impacts in Mediterranean area ?
• How to monitor vulnerability factors and
adaptive strategies looking at different time
and space scales?
More than 175 flood
events between 1990
and 2006 in the
Mediterranean region
Over 29 billion euros
the material damages
produced by floods in
the Mediterranean
region during the
1990-2006 period
The cost of flood damage on private
properties (1983-2005) (source: CCR).
From Vinet (2007).
Vulnerability and flood risk assessment: population increase in
flood prone regions
1114 p/km2
743 p/km2
1433 p/km2
1025 p/km2
15909 p/km2
Population density in Catalonia (people/km²) in 1991 (1) and 2006 (2)
(from Llasat et al., 2008).
The population of Languedoc-Roussillon region in a) 1881, b) 2005
(Vinet, 2010).
Floods in the Mediterranean region
• Heavy rains usually occur in fall and winter triggering flash floods
and landfalls
•
Increasing urban population and urban sprawl, especially on
coastal areas (Plan Bleu, 2007)
 development in flood prone areas
 inappropriateness of infrastructures and urban planning
regulation
 increase of mobility and flow dependent economies
• Between 1990 and 2006 (Llasat et al., 2008)
– 175 flood events
– Over 29,140 millions euros in material damages mainly in Italy,
France, Romania, Turkey and Spain
– 4,500 casualties mainly in Algeria, Morocco, Egypt and Italy
Droughts are also an important risk in
Mediterranean countries, mainly in the Southern
part. Although tragedies like the drought that
affected Syria in 2009 (with about 800,000 people
severely affected and 50,000 replaced) are not
usual in the Mediterranean, droughts are frequent,
and could become even more in future scenarios of
climate change
European projects like ARIDE, MEDROPLAN, or
XEROCHORE have dealt or are dealing with drought
management.
Expressed needs
• Focus on water scarcity and heavy precipitations
triggering floods, the 2 most dangerous meteorological
hazard affecting Mediterranean countries
Global scientific strategy
• Link and integration with other projects
– MEDEX, MedCLIVAR, EU projects
• Develop data access especially at small scale
• Develop observation methodologies on specific sites :
OHM-CV…
Current approaches for the analysis of social impact
•Generation of databases including information about the physical
features of the event and data about the damages produced.
•An in-depth economic analysis of the losses encountered following an
extreme event, as well as a comparison between different events or
countries is not easy to carry on
•Linking the number of casualties with the circumstances of their death.
People’s mobility as a vulnerability factor
•To evaluate requests received by the Meteorological Services
•Perception analysis: psychological factors, media, to know or ignore the
flood risk
•Impact of man’s activity and works on flood generation and flooding
patterns, as well as the analysis of adaptative measures taken by the
population in front of flood hazards and droughts.
Analysis of the drought impact and ecosystem services
It requires a long term observation period.
Ecosystem Services (ES): the conditions and processes through which
ecosystems sustain and fulfill human life provides a link between humans and
the environment :
•food, wood and biofuel production
•carbon sequestration
•climate protection
•protection from floods and other hazards
•water provisioning or purification
•erosion reduction (maintaining soil productivity and preventing siltation of
reservoirs e.g.)
•biodiversity
•recreation
their vulnerability
strongly depend on the
status of the respective
(agro-)ecosystem, and
its bi-directional
interactions with water
and climate
Dry-spell
Drought
Occurrence: [2/3 years]
Two out of three years
Occurrence: [1/10 years]
One year out of ten
Impact:
Yield reduction
Impact:
Complete crop failure
Cause:
Rainfall deficit of 2-5 week periods during crop
growth
Cause:
Seasonal rainfall below minimum seasonal plant
water requirement
Table 3.1. Differences between droughts and dryspells according to Falkenmark et al. (2009)
Global change and evolution of vulnerability
There is a general agreement that damages produced by natural
risks, and particularly by floods, have increased, revealing an
imbalance between the measures taken to diminish the risk and
increasing factors.
The IPCC (2007) points to an increase of drought periods in
Mediterranean countries for future scenarios due to a major water
scarcity joined to high temperatures. It is necessary to combine such
climate change scenarios to future scenarios of land use and surface
management practices.
Implementation plan
• Long-term Observation Period: LOP 2010-19
 Monitor vulnerability factors in space and time
• Enhanced Observation Period: EOP 2010-13
 Learn from post-event investigation
• Special Observation Period: SOP 2012-13
 Focus on warning systems and communication processes
Implementation plan : LOP
• Perception of risk evolution
– Systematic questionnaire surveys and cognitive mapping
– Press coverage
• Social organisation evolution
– Crisis management
– Warning process
– Rules, actors and practices
• Spatio-temporal practices evolution
– Evolution in daily travel patterns and factor of adaptation
– Migration and tourism
• Interactions
– Hydrological, meteorological and human impacts data collection
– Radio, video records, … collection
– Re-insurance and Insurances data
Implementation plan : LOP
Analysis of the Press coverage (1982-2009/FLASH+20102019/HYMEX): risk perception and evolution; vulnerability and hazard
changes. This analysis also allows to work with droughts
1000
Floods
900
18
Number of headlines
16
14
Number of floods
Droughts and
forest fires
800
12
10
8
6
700
600
500
400
300
200
4
100
2
0
0
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Type of risk
Years
Distribution of flood events in Press
database 1982-2006)
Outside of Catalunya
Catalunya
Number of articles classified by type of
risk from 1982 to 2005. (Llasat et al,
2007)
Implementation Plan : EOP, learn from
post-event investigation
• Focus on post-event field studies for floods
to maximize interactions between social
scientists, hydrologists and meteorologists
• New guidelines on post-event investigations
for use by integrated teams of physical
scientists, social scientists, and practitioners.
• Collaboration with other projects: MEDEX,
HYDRATE, DELUGE,…
Implementation Plan : EOP, learn from postevent investigation
Post event analysis
• Deluge :
interdisciplinary
research strategy
• Coupled physical
and social postevent
investigations
Implementation Plan : EOP
Post event analysis using
data from meteorological
services (in collaboration
with MEDEX project)
Implementation plan : SOP
• Observe drivers’ behavior on flooded
roads
• Communication chain time analysis
• Operational services pratices / process :
in situ observation
SOP: Focus on warning
systems and communication
processes
KEY SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS:
WG5-SQ1: What methods, indicators and sensors may be used to
monitor short-term and long-term adaptation strategies at various space
scales and for different cultural contexts?
WG5-SQ2: What lessons can be learnt from the experience of different
societies and individuals to better cope with climate change and
hydrometeorological extreme events around the Mediterranean Sea?
WG5-SQ3: How can we make these lessons beneficial and relevant for
all Mediterranean communities?
WG5-SQ4: How can we define plausible scenarios (land use, economy,...)
to quantify the impact of global change on the Mediterranean hydrological
cycle and extremes?
WG5-SQ5: How is vulnerability of humans and ecosystems going to
change under future global change?
Observation and methods needs
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Build a comprehensive database of flood events and
their associated impact
Discriminate all the factors driving the evolution of
flood social impact
Analyse social perception
Observe social ability to cope with intense weather
events
Monitor vulnerability factors and their evolution
Analyse the space-temporal factors of adaptation
Analyse the impact on Ecosystem Services
Monitor drought events
Facilitate the mutual comprehension between social
and natural scientists
Needs & expectations
• Observation of perception of risks
• Demographic evolution : land ownership,
residential strategies
• Touristism and vulnerability
• Rules and public policies facing extremes
• Protection tools : building protection,
insurance, …
• Meteorological data
Pilote sites
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Cevennes, Gard, South East of France
Barcelona and Maresme region, Spain
Balearic Islands, Spain
Fella River, Nord East of Italy
Needs and existing limitation
• Lack of human resources especially on the
water scarcity topic
• Selection of other observation sites :
OMERE, Israël….
• How to integrate studies with other HyMeX
groups ?
Thank you!
… Questions?
The city of Nîmes, 3 October 1988
Last Spring...
Cadereaux River in Nîmes, 50 km2
Fall 1988 (500 years return period)