Transcript CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY IN AFRICA WITH FOCUS ON THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA, PARIS, 20 JANUARY 2009 Bwango Apuuli IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) OUTLINE • • • • • Introduction Climate change and natural resources Past, present climate migrations and conflicts Future climate change scenarios for the region Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change • Adaptation strategies at national and regional levels • Conclusion 10 GHA Countries 30 Sudan Eritrea 20 Djibouti 10 Ethiopia Somalia 0 -10 Uganda Kenya -20 Rwanda Burundi Tanzania -30 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 INTRODUCTION • GHA prone to extreme climate events such as droughts and floods with severe negative impacts on key socio-economic sectors. • More than half of the region is classified as Arid or Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) • Most livelihoods tied to climate sensitive natural resources • Shared natural resources INTRODUCTION CONTD • Rain-fed agriculture • The droughts are often associated with lack of pasture, food, water, energy, loss of society livelihoods, etc • Climate extremes lead to 1. loss of life and property 2. forced large-scale population displacement 3. poverty 4. Other miseries INTRODUCTION CONT… Consequences 1. the region has experienced conflicts ranging from interstate tensions 2. interstate conflicts 3. cross border community conflicts over limited water, grazing land 4. Food insecurity Forced migration due to conflict Scarcity in pasture leading to conflict Climate change, natural resources and security Climate Change significantly affects security in three distinct ways Warming and drying in some regions – will reduce agricultural potential and undermine ‘ecosystem services’ Increase in extreme weather events – floods and drought resulting into migration Sea level rise – submerge low lying coastal areas resulting to permanent relocation Failed harvest caused by floods Floods often follow or precede droughts Migration with livestock due to drought DROUGHT IMPACTS Reduced Crop production Starvation due to lack of Rainfall Loss of Livestock Past and present changes in natural resources and livelihood patterns • Effects of future climate change on agriculture may be evaluated by using analogues of climate conditions that occur in the present time, such as current periods of drought and floods. • Maps below show effects of the 2001 drought on the vegetation conditions in Africa. Vegetation condition measured by vegetation health (VH - index). • Source: NOAA/NESDIS; http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/. Analogues: Drought, Floods Africa vegetation health (VH - index) Vegetation health: Red – stressed, Green – fair, Blue – favorable Source: NOAA/NESDIS Trends in rainfall patterns 1000 Kenya/Tanzania Border (March-May) 900 800 Average 700 500 400 300 200 100 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 0 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 Years RFE (mm) 600 Linear (Kenya/Tanzania Border (MarchMay)) Declining maize production per capita Source: FEWSnet Pop~33M (2005) and Growth Rate ~ 2.56% Multiple Interactions • Climate change is one stress among many affecting agriculture and the population that depends on it • – Integration of results is essential to formulate assessments relevant to policy Potential future consequences depend on: – The region and the agricultural system -Where? – The magnitude [How much? Scenarios are important.] – The socioeconomic response [What happens in response to change? Adaptive capacity CLIMATE EXTREMES: WILL THE PATTERNS CHANGE Hot & cold spells Causes El Niño / LA Niña Droughts River basin flooding Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Storm surges Ice Storms Dust storms Storm (winds) Wildland fires & haze Hail&Lightning Mud & landslides Flash floods Avalanches Tornadoes Adaptation Strategies • • • • • • • National Level include Water harvesting Irrigation Drought/pest resistant crops Reforestation Energy efficiency e.g. stoves Use of renewable energy e.g. solar, wind Adaptation Strategies Cont… • Regional Level include harmonization of policies e.g. power pooling, EAC water release policy on L. Victoria & its basin • Regulation e.g. fishing between Kenya & Uganda on L. Victoria (Migingo Island) • Optimum use & protection of transboundary waters e.g. River Nile Consequences for EU-Africa Relations • Devlpmt resources will continue to be diverted to CRM • EU will be expected to support progms for CRM • EU will be expected to continue to support CC adaptation in Africa: appropriate technologies, GMES, NAPAs Conclusion • Climate change will get worse with more frequent and severe extreme events such as droughts, floods • Exacerbate conflicts, famine, food insecurity • Govts need to adopt appropriate policies to support adaptation • Mainstream climate change adaptation into national planning