Transcript IPCC TAR – Regional Issues

IPCC WGII Third Assessment
Report – Regional Issues with
Emphasis on Developing
Countries of Africa
Paul V. Desanker (Malawi)
Coordinating Lead Author
Chapter 10 (Africa)
Outline
• Summary of Key Impacts Over
Africa
• Some thoughts on Adaptation
• Some suggestions for emphasis
Overall Science Basis
Much improved science understanding of
the issues of climate change for Africa
– Climate system: nature of variability at sub-regional
level (Southern Africa, Sahel, etc), ENSO, climate
variability
– Improved data on impacts of Extreme events (floods,
droughts, major storm, disease epidemics)
– Seasonal forecasts used operationally
African Climate
Projected Climate: Trends, Extremes
–Persistent droughts – feedbacks
between climate and land surface
condition
–Extremes projected to get worse
–Recent incidences of extremes
example of vulnerabilities and very
low adaptive capacity
Cairo: Megacity,
vulnerable to sealevel rise
The Nile:
vulnerable to
climate variability
and human
pressures,
transboundary
issue
Morocco: North
Atlantic
Oscillation –
climate
variability and
major impacts
on fisheries
The Sahel:
-Rainfall Variability
modulated by
vegetation dynamics
-Species loss
-Major impacts on
livelihoods
Gulf of Guinea:
Very large coastal
cities vulnerable to
sea level rise
Central Africa:
Land cover change
interlinked with
regional climate,
impacta areas away
from immediate
deforested area.
South-West Africa
Coastal marine
fisheries adversely
affected by changes
in Banguela current
Southern Africa
Droughts
Impacts on economy
shown
Cape Flora
Loss or displacement
of species in
biodiversity-risk
Cape and Karoo
areas
Floods
Populous coastal
areas highly exposed
to floods, also key
infrastructure
East African
Great Lakes
Lake levels very
sensitive to climate
variability
East African
Agriculture
Growing season
shifts have serious
impacts on crops
Droughts in Horn
of Africa
Recurrent droughts
Sectoral Issues:
Food
Grain yields are projected to
decrease for many scenarios,
diminishing food security,
particularly in small food-importing
countries (medium to high
confidence).
Water
Major rivers of Africa are highly
sensitive to climate variation;
average runoff and water
availability would decrease in
Mediterranean and southern
countries of Africa (medium
confidence).
Vector Diseases
Extension of ranges of infectious
disease vectors would adversely
affect human health in Africa
(medium confidence).
- MORE MALARIA!
Vector Diseases
Desertification would be
exacerbated by reductions in
average annual rainfall, runoff, and
soil moisture, especially in
southern, North, and West Africa
(medium confidence).
Settlements
Coastal settlements in, for
example, the Gulf of Guinea,
Senegal, Gambia, Egypt, and
along the East–Southern African
coast would be adversely
impacted by sea-level rise
through inundation and coastal
erosion (high confidence).
Summary
Overall Adaptive
Capacity
Adaptive capacity of
human systems in
Africa is very low due
to lack of economic
resources and
technology.
Adaptation Constraints
Region very diverse: while
common problems, LDCs have
differentiated needs given their
very low economic ability
Adaptation Constraints
Multiple stresses: health, land use,
climate, economics etc interlinked in
affecting livelihoods.
Complicates assessment of impacts,
but requires that climate change be
considered in context of sustainable
development.
Adaptation Constraints
Adaptation to adverse impacts is local:
- need to understand local climate change
related hazards and develop programs to
minimize risks at the local and regional
level.
- Each sector and region has critical needs,
especially in LDCs where delayed action
would make future actions more costly and
lead to more damage
Overall
Vulnerability High
Vulnerability of human
systems high as a result of
heavy reliance on rain-fed
agriculture; frequent
droughts and floods; and
poverty.
Some Gaps – Opportunities for Progress
• Lots of progress in observation of climate:
need continued efforts
• Remote sensing systems offer regional
monitoring capability that cannot be
matched by ground systems
• Need more regional and national integrated
assessment of impacts linked with
development plans