Transcript Weather, Climate and Water Services

Dr. D.P. Dubey
Scientist E
Meteorological Centre, Bhopal (India)
email- [email protected]
Weather, climate and water information contributes to
the safety and welfare of the public & has the potential
to provide immense social and economic benefits to
society.
It educate about important issues such as :
 variability in weather
climate change
vulnerability to natural hazards
 water resources
It is not sufficient to employ good science
and provide accurate forecasts.
There is also a need to educate public, and more
specialized users, about availability of services .
India
Water Resources Management
Monsoon rainfall
Year
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
Departure
Onset of Monsoon over India
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Main crop
• Kharif - June to Sept.
• Rabi -
Oct to April.
L
Operational communication to end-users (farmers)
State Met Centres
Agromet Advisory Bulletin
by AMFUs
State Agril. Dept.
Postal Contact
SMS on
mobile
Personal
Contact
Farmer
KVK
Television
Radio
News Papers
Weather forecast
• Short range
• Medium range
• Long range
ASSESSMENTS
Climate Change
ASSESSMENTS
Source : IPCC
GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS – IPCC PROJECTIONS
AVE. SURFACE TEMP. INCREASE 1.5 TO 5.8ºC
RATE OF WARM LARGE
MEAN SEA LEVEL RISE 0.09 TO 0.88 MTRS
WATER VAP. CONCENTR. / PRECIP. TO
INCREASE
LOW LATITUDE REGIONS MEAN PRECIP. TO
INCREASE
ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON PRECIP. INCREASE
EL-NINO EVENTS VARY IN NEXT 100 YEARS IN
SMALL BUT INCREASE
REGIONAL EFFECTS: Asia
Freshwater Availability:
Decreased river flows after glaciers recede; will decrease.
Floods:
Glacier melt in Himalayas; sea level rise in deltas
Crop yield:
Increase up to 20% in E and SE; decrease up to 30% in S and
central Asia by 2050; hunger risk high
Observed impacts in South Asia
Intense Rains and Floods
•
•
•
•
Droughts
Serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh,
Nepal and N-E India in 2002, 2003 and 2004
Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million
people lost their homes
• 50% of droughts associated with El Niño
• Droughts in Orissa (India) in 2000-2002: crop
failures, mass starvation affecting 11 million
people
Cyclones / Typhoons
•Increasing intensity of cyclones formation in Bay
of Bengal and Arabian Sea since 1970
• Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100, 000 deaths
EVIDENCES / EVENTS
DROUGHT HITS
KARNATAKA
2008
HEAT WAVE IN
NORTHERN INDIA
2007
COLD WAVE IN
NORTH
2006
NILAM CYCLONE (2012)
INDIA
Vulnerability to Climate Change
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE CASE SEA LEVEL RISE ??
Coastal Zones
•Sea level rise displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in
low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.
7500 km coast line
Vulnerable areas along the
Indian Coast due to SLR
Variability in Weather & Climate
• Heat / Cold Wave
• More variable R/F
• Increased Extremes Weather Events
• Erratic Onset, advance and
retrieval of Monsoon
• Shift in Active/break cycles
• Intensity and frequency of Monsoon
Systems
Agriculture
•Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of
India –
• 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by
about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare
in the low yield coastal regions.
•Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice
and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest
farmers practice rain fed agriculture.
•The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a
temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.
Factors influencing agriculture and food security

Increasing population

Growing urbanization

Decreasing crop land

Continuing crop loss

Declining crop production

Declining bio-diversity
Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India
Adaptations to Climate change
•Improve land management practices-soil &nutrients
•Increase water management
•Reduce inefficiency in water use
•Preserve and enhance plant and animal
•Adjust food consumption patterns
•Promote eco-friendly energy use
•Shift to different cropping patterns
Climate Friendly Initiative
Wide-ranging reforms such as:
• energy efficiency
• increasing penetration of cleaner fuels
• thrust for renewable energy technologies





cleaning of rivers,
enhanced forestation,
installed significant capacity of hydro and renewable energy
technologies and
introduced clean coal technologies
cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel
Water
Key Vulnerable River Basins
Acute physical water scarce
conditions
Constant water scarcities and
shortage
Seasonal / regular water
stressed conditions
Rare water shortages
The Indian situation
• Surface and ground water availability - 1,869 BCM of
this, 40 % is not available.
Groundwater Consumption:
Surface water Consumption:
• 92% - Agricultural
• 5% - Industrial
• 3% - Domestic.
• 89% - Agricultural
• 2% - Industrial
• 9% - Domestic.
The Indian situation
Groundwater is the major
source of water in the country
with 85% of the population
dependent.
Groundwater water table
decline - 33 centimeters per
year.
The Indian situation
• Groundwater [Depleted]
• Surface water [Polluted]
• Rainfall [Wasted]
• Population [ ]
• Demand [ ]
• Consumption [ ]
SCARCITY
• Industrial Growth [ ]
• Economy-Industry [ ]
• Water Business[ ]
• Agriculture [ ]
• Health & Environment[
]
• Future [ ? ]
The Indian situation
Challenges ….
Public
• Wasting Water
• Polluting Water
Challenges ….
Safety of industrial establishments from surplus surface water and floods
Lack of proper draining facilities
Uncontrolled exploitation of ground water by some industrial establishments
Challenges …
• 2020 India will become a water stressed nation.
• 66 million Indians in 20 states are at risk due to
• excess fluoride
• 10 million due to excess arsenic in groundwater
Solution …
• Rain Water Harvesting
• Irrigation Water Management
• Hydrological projects - Construction of Dams
• Artificial Recharge to Ground Water.
Solution …
National River Linking Project
Solution …
The much-awaited seawater desalination plant, the largest in the country with a
capacity of 100 MLD (million litres per day), coming up near Minjur about 35 km
north of Chennai .
Under the technology, developed by the National Institute of Ocean Technology
(NIOT), warm water is pumped into a vacuum flash chamber and the resultant
vapour is condensed using cold water to get crystal clear potable water.
Desalinated water is of a better quality and the cost is only 6 paise per litre.
Solution …
•Water awareness groups among social media
networking sites like Twitter,
•Facebook are creating new trend among the social
awareness groups.
•Its not a solution to be found, it should be a
RESOLUTION everyone should take
.