Transcript Slide 1
CARBO-Extreme The Terrestrial Carbon Cycle under Climate Variability and Extremes - A Pan-European Synthesis A 4-year multidisciplinary research project funded by the European Commission Christian Beer, Dorothea Frank, Markus Reichstein (coordinator MPI-BGC) Dominique Arrouays, Michael Bahn, Dan Berggren Kleja, Olivier Bouriaud, Nina Buchmann, Arnaud Carrara, Torben Christensen, Philippe Ciais, Wolfgang Cramer, Eric Dufrêne, David Frank, Richard deJeu, André Granier, Georg Guggenberger, Andreas Ibrom, Daniela Jacob, Ivan Janssens, Chris Jones, Guy Kirk, Denis Loustau, Franco Miglietta, Michael Obersteiner, Dario Papale, Sonia Seneviratne, Pete Smith, Serge Rambal, Jean-François Soussana, Marcel van Oijen, Miguel A. Zavala CARBO-Extreme background Climate Variability and Extreme Events Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases do not only lead to gradual ‘global warming’ but also to changed precipitation patterns, increased variability and weather extremes such as heat waves, longer dry spells, variability of growing season length and heavy rainfall. Current climate models predict specific regional effects (IPCC 2007): • Northern Europe: warmer and wetter winters and longer growing seasons, • Central & Southern Europe: hotter and drier summers, • Mountain areas: reduced snow cover and glacier retreat, • Overall more variable climate in temperate zone. Knowledge gap Effects of climate variability and extremes on the future fate of European carbon balance are highly uncertain CARBO-Extreme … …wants to close this knowledge gap by Drought experiment at CARBO-Extreme site Stubai, Austria, June 2009 (Photo by Michael Bahn, UIBK; Innsbruck, Austria) Rainfall exclusion experiment at state forest of Hesse (North-Eastern France), September 2007 (Photo by Marion Zapater , INRANancy, France) • bringing together and reanalyzing existing long-term carbon cycle related observations, • synthesizing and harmonizing new experimental approaches, • compiling and adapting latest regional climate scenarios, • using a strong model-data integration framework, … and thereby will yield improved assessments of the European carbon cycle under future climate and advice to the European Commission and other stakeholders regarding climate, soil and ecosystem protection policies. Schematic showing the effect on extreme temperatures when (a) the mean temperature increases, (b) the variance increases, and (c) when both the mean and variance increase for a normal distribution of temperature. From Folland et al. 2001, page 155, their Fig. 2.32 Researchers at fieldwork - sampling in Abisko National Park, Sweden (Photo by Flurin Babst, WSL; Birmensdorf, Switzlerland) Pinus sylvestris disc collected in Finnish Lapland (Photo by Flurin Babst, WSL; Birmensdorf, Switzlerland) (Folland, C.K., T.R. Karl, J.R. Christy, R.A. Clarke, G.V. Gruza, J. Jouzel, M.E. Mann, J. Oerlemans, M.J. Salinger and S.-W. Wang, 2001: Observed Climate Variability and Change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881pp.) Find more information at: CARBO-Extreme Partners KLAUS storm impact on a maritime pine forest in a experimental watershed near Bordeaux; 28.01.09; (Photo by Marie Guillot, INRA, EPHYSE; Bordeaux, France) Drought in Mediterranean soil, island of Milos, Greece. (Photo by Marcel van Oijen, CEH-Edinburgh (U.K.)) The Consortium consists of 25 partners from 12 European countries. It is coordinated by the Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena, Germany. Temperature difference from the average during the European heat wave of 2003 (Image by Reto Stöckli, Robert Simmon and David Herring, NASA Earth Observatory, based on data from the MODIS land team.) Relative changes in precipitation (in %) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for June to August. White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change. Contact (IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.; page 16, their Fig.SPM.7 ) Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena Dr. Markus Reichstein (Coordinator) Phone: +49 3641 576273 E-mail: [email protected] The European Terrestrial Carbon Cycle – State of the Art • According to the latest assessment the European terrestrial biosphere is a net carbon sink (CARBOEUROPE-IP project) • The future fate of this sink is highly uncertain and depending on climate and land-use. • Climate variability and extremes will play an important role, but have not been sufficiently accounted for in modelling and experimental studies leading to a critical knowledge gap. Dr. Dorothea Frank (Project Manager) E-mail: [email protected] SOC = soil organic carbon, DOC = dissolved organic carbon, POC = particulate organic carbon, DIC = dissolved inorganic carbon Background picture: adapted from Ssolbergj, Wikimedia Commons, under Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community‘s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n°226701.