Transcript Using climate outlooks to adapt to climate change

Using climate outlooks to
adapt to climate change
Gina Ziervogel
Stockholm Environment Institute
Outline
Climate change/climate variability
Climate outlooks as a means of adaptation
to climate variability
Case study: Lesotho
Conclusion
Climate change and climate variability
Long-term climate change
Will vulnerable groups be able to cope?
How do we assess that?
Climate variability
Ability to factor in variability makes people
more resilient
Propositions
climate variability =
coping range/resilience
climate variability =
climate awareness
climate extremes =
signal impacts
climate extremes =
institutional reforms
Learning
Learning to cope with climate variability =
adapt to longer term climate change?
Can we expect all groups to adapt to
medium-term variability?
Climate outlooks
Seasonal forecasts
Inter-annual forecasts
Decadel forecasts
Characteristics
Probabilistic
Limited spatial and
temporal scale
Climate outlooks as medium-term
information source
Outlooks fit into annual planning horizons
Not days, not centuries
time
Climate outlooks
Weather forecasts
Climate change scenarios
Case study: Lesotho
Smallholder farmers
Rain-fed agriculture
Livestock
Variable climate
Climate impacts on livelihoods
Direct
Crops
Livestock
Health
Natural resources
Indirect
Education
Social networks
Participatory role-play exercise
Small groups
Seasonal forecast applications
Decisions recorded for a series of ‘years’
Seasonal forecast applications
Findings
Needs to be tried and tested
Attribute different priorities to different forecasts
Personal communication facilitates better
understanding of the forecast
Number of constraints to forecast use
A way of adapting to seasonal variation
Impact of seasonal forecasts
on livelihoods
May encourage diversification which decreases
risk
Enables maximisation of good years
May not be used but can still promote
awareness of expected variability
Planning cycle
Daily – weather, decision making
Annual – seasonal forecasts, multi-year
Climate change – ‘new’ scenarios every
2-5 years
Micro-macro interaction
Integrating different spatial and temporal
scales
Lessons to be learned for climate
change adaptation
Only one chance with longer-term change
Can’t expect people to adapt quickly and easily
to long-term change
Climate variability
not always =
increased coping or increased use of climate info
Climate extremes might not prompt adaptation that
benefits the vulnerable
Conclusion
Outlooks promote awareness of longer-term
adaptation
Don’t have good adaptation scenarios
What do perfect outlooks teach us?