Dr Roan Plotz

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Transcript Dr Roan Plotz

Climate and Oceans Support
Program in the Pacific
Traditional Knowledge Workshop
Project Overview
Photo: Tony Northrup
RossyRoan
Mitiepo
Image:
Plotz
Dr Roan Plotz, COSPPac, Australian Bureau ofImage:
Meteorology
and Dr Lynda Chambers, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research,
“The Tera, a coastal tree rarely flowers. However, when it flowers
in April or the end of May, a long dry season is certainly
coming” – Interview with Elders on Tanna Island, Vanuatu
“When fruit trees, such as mango, have many fruits the
rainy season will surely come in 6 months” – Interview with
elder from Penama Province , Vanuatu
Image: Wikipedia Commons
TK Project in Samoa
Objectives for Day 2:
• Understanding the TK Project in Samoa
• Understand the benefits and create Seasonal
Calendars
• Practice collecting Survey information
Traditional Knowledge – Growing Concerns
• Generational loss
• Cultural homogenisation
• Climate change
• Land-use change
Image: Lynda Chambers
“The trees are flowering much earlier now and they don’t tell us
what they used to. This might be a result of climate change”
Maori, G. Kemara (New Zealand) [King et al. 2008]
National Meteorological Service Forecasts
Statistical & dynamical models
Uptake Issues:
• Reluctance to change
– Works / cultural reasons
• Difficult to understand
• Access / communication
September to November 2014 Outlooks:
SCOPIC outlooks for the coming season
mainly favoured below normal rainfall,
with 41% of stations with high
probabilities in tercile 1, 8% in tercile 2,
8% of the stations had the highest
probabilities for tercile 3, and 27% of the
stations had similar probabilities in all
terciles. The remainder of the outlooks had
equal probabilities for two terciles.
POAMA outlooks: 8 station outlooks favour
Tercile 1, 15 favour Tercile 2 and 9 favour
Tercile 3 for the coming season.
Pacific Partnership
COSPPac
– Australian Bureau of Meteorology
– 10 Pacific Island NMS
Traditional Knowledge component
– How complimentary are the two forecast methods?
– Working together to improve climate communication
Combining forecasts
• Growing recognition that local knowledge can compliment
modern forecasting information
“When meteorologists engage with indigenous knowledge
forecasters, value is added to the information from both
sources”
Ziervogel & Opere 2010
Combining forecasts
Benefits
• Communication
– what is climate
• Scale
• Timing
• Recognition that both systems are valid
Project Structure
Capture
• Consider protections around access &
cultural restraints of TK
• Surveys
• Workshops
• Partnerships
• Database (development & training)
Store
• Observe and record weather / climate
indicators
Monitor
Forecast
Integration
• Review international "best" practice
• Determine appropriate method for country
• Develop tools and products
Communicate
Images: Roan Plotz
9
Samoa – a TK Pilot Project Country
National TK Workshop, Apia 2013
Image: Roan Plotz
Newsline, Apia
Samoa
Capturing Traditional Knowledge
• Workshops / national meetings
• One-on-one interviews
Image: Roan Plotz
• Use of partnerships
• Use of local language
Image: Mike Waiwai
Image: Roan Plotz
Collect and
Record TK
TK collection and storage methods
Image: VMGD
E.g., Rainfall Observers
Data collection and storage
Image: Roan Plotz
13
Image: Roan Plotz
Monitoring Traditional Knowledge
TK forecasts:
82 stations - VRN
• Standardised observations
• National rainfall network
• Weekly recording (Monitoring
form)
• Assess reliability
• Assess regional applicability
• Guide development of combined
forecast system
Image: VMGD
Survey
– Permissions
Monitoring Traditional
Knowledge
Fruiting & Flowering
Fruiting & Flowering levels divided into four
categories (A: 0%, B: <50%, C: >50% & D: 100%)
Amount and Timing is determined by the
observers perception of how much lighter or
heavier / earlier or later the fruiting or flowering
is
Combined Traditional Knowledge & NMS forecasts
Kenyan Example:
Nganyi family (well-known in Kenya for the accuracy
of their weather forecasts) has shrines of huge and
rare indigenous trees. These small patches of land
attract reptiles, birds and insects whose behaviour is
monitored to indicate upcoming weather events
Collaboration with the Kenya Meteorologist
Department – to bring together local and KMD
seasonal forecasts.
Source: Andrew Newsham et al. (2011)
Traditional Knowledge and NMS forecasts
Season and
location
TK summary report NMS forecast
and indicators
March-May Frogs making a
2010
lot of noise, ants
moving and
Same,
spreading across
Tanzania
roads signify
rainy season
about to start. TK
indicators show
rains during this
season will
decrease
especially in May
Seasonal
rainfall will be
normal. Main
indicators
include sea
surface
temperatures of
the Indian and
Pacific Oceans
and wind
strength
Integrated
Report
Performance
of integrated
forecast
TK and
NMS
forecasts
indicate
normal
rains,
expected to
decrease
as the
season
progresses
Reported as
“very good”
– almost all
predicted
events came
to pass
Source: Ziervogel & Opere 2010
Communication tools and products
Kabara, Fiji example: WWF
Communication tools and products
Solomon Islands
http://www.bom.gov.au/iwk/maung/index.shtml
Image: Lynda Chambers
Summary
• TK for improved climate communication
– to engage community in discussions on
climate variability and extreme events
– provide additional information to
conventional forecast products
– increase relevance & community resilience
• Collection, Monitoring and storage an important
part of this knowledge
– Will regularly be recorded throughout
Samoa
Villagers living close on
the coast of Malekula
rely on mangrove
flowering to indicate
active cyclone season
while in other areas they
use turtles laying eggs
inland as their indicator
Thank you very much
Photo: SIMS