Transcript Richard Ewbank, Christian Aid

Supporting Small Scale Farmers’ Access
to Climate Information
Strengthening
sustainability & resilience
Managing
the risk
cycle
Resilient development, planning &
capacity building; risk management
information systems; catchment-level
solutions; health and peace-building;
infrastructure and energy development
(flood protection, renewables, etc); adaptive
technology innovation and implementation
Recovery
Vulnerability
Context
Local knowledge,
climate forecasts,
market projections,
conflict assessments,
health surveillance,
etc
Emergency
Human nutrition & health; livestock
nutrition & health provision; water
supply; emergency shelter and HH
equipment; safe and secure
environments
Emergency Response
Heightened risk
monitoring; storage
of crops and fodder;
live-stock marketing
and destocking;
checking and
monitoring protective
infrastructure;
evacuation to safe
areas
Preparedness
Rehabilitation
Normal
Restoring
livelihoods; return
of evacuated
people to their
homes; repair and
re-habilitation of
protective infrastructure, wells,
etc; restocking of
livestock/animal
health, agricultural
and household
assets
Local NonFormalised
Climate Knowledge
• all local indicators of
climate used for
predictive purposes
• experience-based
understanding of
climate variation and
change
Local Formalised
Climate Knowledge
• local indicators that
have a basis in science
(known or unknown) for
their effectiveness
• community early warning
systems (for floods, drought,
etc)
• seasonal forecasts made
locally relevant through
participatory downscaling
Climate Science
• scientific research on
bio-indicators of climate
• short-term (1 – 10 day)
forecasts
• seasonal forecasts
• data from locally
managed rain gauges
• experience of climate
variation and change
verified by historical
climate records
• local climate station expertise
in managing local climate data
collection and recording
• global and especially
regional climate models
• community
development
plans
Reducing
bias
Understanding uncertainty,
finding the right communication
methods
Application to resilience-building decisions –
1. How to respond to an early warning - saving lives and assets
2. Using seasonal and/or short term forecasts – adjusting livelihoods to
improve productivity and income
3. Longer-term climate change – planning to manage incremental climate
risks and enhance environmental sustainability
Community Knowledge – experience…
..and
local
indicators
Challenges to using local indicators
Local scale
Also probabilistic information
Science basis?
Climate change is itself altering bio-indicators
Loss of traditional techniques
Seasonal forecast
So combine to increase use and
relevance of the seasonal forecast
A 45%
N 35%
+
B 20%
A 45%
=
N 35%
B 20%
(if LIs predict early start/finish
to rains)
or
What farmers actually did...
So we also need…
A regular uninterrupted supply of short-term
(3, 5, 7, 10 day) forecasts
Communicated to farmers using easily
accessible means (village notice board, mobile
phone, etc)
Rain gauges for farmer groups (esp. to
increase local data collection and use,
strengthen link between met service)
To facilitate climate-smart decisions…
Addressing
climate with
other risks
Thank-you