Transcript Responding to the Future: Conflict and Environment over Time

From Cold War to Hot War:
Climate Change and
st
Conflict in the 21 Century
Jim Lee
American University
March 2007
Climate Change Will do More than
Raise the Temperature
I. The Environmental Century
A. The Linkages between Climate
Change and Conflict
B. Forecasts of Climate in the 21st
Century
C. Trends in Conflict
Linkages: The Problem of Climate
Change and Conflict
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Displacement: Large scale migrations
Abundance: New resources become
available
Scarcity: Greater Demands and
Declining Yields
Sovereignty: New lands and seaways
Climate Change in History and
Conflict
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The End of the Ice Age (30-40,000 BC)
Neanderthal Wars and Growing Deserts
The Medieval Climate Optimum (500-1000
AD) Recovering from the Dark Ages and
the New World
The Little Ice Age (1300-1850) Retreat
and Advance, Extreme Events
The Modern Warming (1900-today)
Climate Change and Conflict
Dynamics
Temperature from 400 BC until
Today
IPCC Forecasts
The research will rely on forecasts to
create a climate baseline scenario for
the 21st century. The scenario will
primarily use the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
forecasts.
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Forecasts for Conflict Indicators
These forecasts center on two
dimensions. First, there is the
geography of the forecast. Second,
there are the impacts. The impacts
focus on four types:
 (1) precipitation and temperature,
 (2) arable land,
 (3) forests, and
 (4) fresh water.
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IPCC 2006 Scenarios
IPCC Forecasts
Scenarios
 Note Range
 Has adjustments
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Trends in Climate
Regional IPCC Forecasts
Precipitation Forecasts
New and Old Tension Belts
Trends in Conflict Behavior
Growth in Destructiveness of
Weapons
 More Ability to Use Environment as a
Weapon
 Livelihood Conflicts
 A Focus on Civilian Casualties and
Environment Destruction
 More Civil than International Wars
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Thinking About Conflict and
Environment
II. Climate Change and Conflict in
History
A. The Equatorial Tension Belt
B. Historical Cases of Climate Change
and Conflict
1. Temperature: The Vikings and North
America
2. Arable Land: The Shifting Sahel
3. Forests: The Cedars of Lebanon
4. Water: Controlling the Nile in
Antiquity
The Path is Partially Determined
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III. Future Climate Changes and Possible Conflict
Outcomes
A. The Polar Tension Belt
B. Future Cases of Climate Change and Conflict
1. Temperature: The Dispute over Canada’s
Northwest Passage
2. Arable Land: The Long-Term Drought in
Southern Africa
3. Forests: The Decline in the Northern Amazon
4. Water: Critical Shortages in Central Asia
Problem and Solution Types
A preventative approach would
attempt to curtail the structural roots
for the conflict before they erupt.
 A mitigating approach would attempt
to contain or reduce violence that
has broken out.
 An uncoupling approach would have
a greater focus on the trigger for
conflict that lets loose accumulated
stress built on structural forces.
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The Path Forward
IV. These Conflicts are Not Inevitable
 A. Temperature: Controlling
Greenhouse Gases
 B. Arable Land: Rethinking
Agriculture
 C. Forests: National and Global Parks
 D. Water: Project Desalinization
V. The Social Dimensions of
Climate Change and Equity
Winners and Losers, Rich and
Poor
 Terra-forming the Planet
 Inter-generational Issues
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