Transcript title

Policy Perspectives on Climate Change
and Food Security
Key note address Ton Dietz
Impact of and Adaptation to CC in relation to FS in Africa,
Nairobi, February 23, 2011, NASAC/KNAW/AAS/KNAS Scientific Conference.
An ‘early research’ in 1998-2004:
Impact of Climate Change on
Drylands, with a focus on
West Africa
ICCD PROJECT
FUNDED BY NETHERLANDS RESEARCH
PROGRAMME ON GLOBAL AIR POLLUTION
AND CLIMATE CHANGE
COLLABORATION BETWEEN
CERES, WAGENINGEN UR, RIVM
AND WEST AFRICAN SCHOLARS
COORDINATED BY TON DIETZ,
RUERD RUBEN AND JAN
VERHAGEN (NL), WITH a.o. DAVID
MILLAR, SAA DITTOH AND EDWARD
OFORI-SARPONG (GH),
MOHAMMED TOURE AND MAMA
KONATE (MALI), ASAïTA DIALLO
AND BOUKARY OUEDRAOGO (BF)
MAJOR RESULT: BOOK
KLUWER 2004
The impact of climate change on drylands, with a
focus on West Africa; Kluwer academic
publishers 2004
Policy-relevant conclusions
• Rainfall variability is evident, but trends are unclear and for Africa
contradictory
• Many different predictions, partly with opposite results
• People adapt to climate-caused stress experiences by agricultural
innovations, livelihood diversification, social network investments
and increased mobility
• Increased vulnerability hits the poor more than the rich, but the poor
are more risk-averse, and have less taboos with regard to extreme
coping behaviour
• Extreme shocks/disasters can devastate the rich as well as the poor
• But the rich are generally better protected physically, socially and
economically
• And there is path dependency for people and for areas!
Africa: comparing aridity classes 1930-1960
with 1960-1990: major changes, but…
Expectations until 2050
However:
many different predictions
‘Normal’ Climate risks
• risks related to peak rainfall (a high volume of rainfall in
short periods, and often with high rainfall energy)
• risks related to peak river discharge, often following peak
rainfall in river catchment areas;
• risks related to severe storms, often near sea (and major
lake) coasts; often part of monsoon periods, or of hurricane
and cyclone seasons;
• risks related to heat (relative heat waves);
• risks related to droughts (‘normal’ dry seasons, dry spells
in ‘normal’ wet seasons, or failing rainy seasons);
• risks related to frost, particularly if unexpected (e.g. early
in autumn, or late in spring seasons).
Additional Climate Change
Risks (for Africa)
Gradual Change to Higher temperatures,
= higher evaporation and evapotranspiration rates;
= higher heat risks + lower frost risks.
Changing rainfall patterns:
often: more rain; more flood risks.
more variability; more unpredictability
Rising sea levels, + More severe coastal storms
and more extreme weather events = threatening coastal cities and
near-coast zones of intensive agriculture and tourism.
Change of ecozones, agro-ecozones, and biodiversity/crop niches
with impact on livelihood options.
Types of CC Risks for Africa
• Species extinction; forest and vegetation
destruction
• Human and animal death; crop losses
• Damage to property and physical infrastructure
• Threatened livelihoods and livelihood options
• Negative impact on GDP and gov. budget
• Threatened lives (mainly by floods and social
unrest).
Threatening the ‘fabric of society’
• Lower resilience and lower innovative capability
• Lower (insurance) buffers
• Collapse of the social trust system: violence and
threatened livelihoods (including ‘no go areas’,
‘climate wars’ or ’climate refugees’)
• Threatened agricultural production because of
drought, floods, heat + transport/trade problems
> food insecurity; more hunger and malnutrition;
environmental refugees; higher food prices;
inflation; social unrest.
However: CC is not the only
thing and it is not only bad
• Next to climate change there are many other
major drivers of change
• CC agenda should be combined with the
Biodiversity and the MDG/Poverty reduction and
Economic growth agenda’s
• CC not only causes stress, also gives
opportunities
• Higher CO2 -levels give better harvests for some
types of crops
Considerable
population
redistribution
1960-1994:
Emptying of the
extreme
drylands
and war zones
Move to
the coast
Very strong
urbanisation
Policy priorities
according to a West African expert panel in 2002:
1 Better early warning systems and better communication about its
findings
2 Integrate knowledge about changing nature and changing
behaviour
3 Develop more adaptive agricultural, pastoral, sylvicultural and
horticultural practices
4 More attention to and support for social security networks
for diversified livelihood profiles, for migration and remittances
5 More attention for entitlement changes (e.g. land, water and
forest rights) and for conflict prevention between groups with
different identities (e.g. cultivators vs herders).
And what
happened
after 2002?
Institutionalisation of CC agencies
• Many African countries now have agencies responsible
for mitigation measures and participating in the global
climate negotiation meetings
• There is growing awareness of the need for systematic
thinking about adaptation, but mainly oriented to extreme
events (floods, storms, droughts) and some connection
with poverty reduction.
• Here and there: start of ‘sustainable cities’ concept
• Often a major external push (Northern aid, NGOs); lack
of African ownership?
• Not many African examples yet of REDD and new
compensation regimes or GHG trading; exception: South
Africa.
More emphasis on link between
CC and health risks
WHO study 2003:
“Any increase in frequency of extreme events such as storms, floods,
droughts and cyclones would harm human health through a variety
of pathways. These natural hazards can cause direct loss of life and
injury and affect health indirectly through
• loss of shelter;
• population displacement;
• contamination of water supplies;
• loss of food production;
• increased risk of infectious disease epidemics (including diarrhoeal
and respiratory diseases;
• and damage to infrastructure for provision of health services
(These can be) devastating impacts, particularly in densely settled
populations with inadequate resources”
Health risks!
Floods:
• increase in bacteriological diseases
like cholera and typhoid,
• and in an increase in parasitic
diseases like amoebiasis, giardiasis,
and cryptosporidiosis
Droughts:
• limited water supplies can have a
higher concentration of pathogens,
• and hence higher risks of water-borne
diseases,
• but low supplies may also affect
personal hygiene and result in skin
infections
More emphasis on adequate water
provision, but an uphill task in growing cities
• Ouagadougou;
• 1960: 59,000 people
• Now: > 1 million
Per person available:
• In 1978: 57 l/d
• In 1986: 39 l/d
• In 1993: 26 l/d
•
Needed:
Extra water dams, far away
+ urban water harvesting
+ subsidised water for the poor
+ health care for those without
clean water
1996
and
1986
But this is
also
Ouagadougou
3-9-2009
And then, in 2007/2008, the
hypes
• Sudden increase of food prices and food price
speculation: new emphasis on agriculture and
on the need for an ‘African Green Revolution’
(Kofi Annan); aid agencies begin to adapt.
• Sudden massive attention for biofuels as a way
out of global energy scarcity: full of controversies
• Sudden massive attention for ‘land grab’; Asians
as ‘the new imperialists’.
Consequenses of the financial
crisis 2008-2010
• Food and other prices of basic commodities down
again, but in 2011 steep rise again
• Many land acquisition plans on hold or if land has
been acquired: little action yet
• But Asia much less affected: towards a multi-polar
world order.
• Africa as a victim of a new round of resource
grab? Or chances for Africa to better ‘negotiate’
this multi-polarity and break away from poverty?
• Clever use of global CC agenda!
New pledges for increased global public
attention for food security
• World Bank 2008 WDR: (Agriculture for Development)
• Rome, June 2008: Declaration of the High-level conference on
World Food Security
• July 2009: L’Aquila G8/G20 joint statement on Global Food Security
• November 2009: World Summit of Food Security Rome
• Sept. 2010: AGRA Green Revolution Forum, Accra
• October 2010, The Hague: The Global Conference on Agriculture,
Food Security and Climate Change
• And: the Montpellier Panel Report
• Febr. 2011: UK Govt report on the Future of Food and Farming
• Connection Food Security, Agricultural Innovations
and Climate Change agendas NOT SELF EVIDENT!
Recent new initiatives
• Climate and Development
Knowledge Network
(CDKN.org):
“Climate compatible development is
development that minimises the harm
caused by climate impacts, while
maximising development opportunities
presented by transitions to a low
emission, more resilient future” (‘low
carbon economy’).
“CDKN wants to combine research in
partnerships with NGOs, private sector
and knowledge centres on climate
compatible development”.
(Agriculture for Development)
Rainfall variability is evident
but downward trend?
Example Mali 1918-1998
Another example:
Bawku north east Ghana