Transcript Climate Change in Viet Nam & the Threat to Human Security

Climate Change in Viet Nam &
the Threat to Human Security
What This Presentation is Based
Upon….
 Summarises work done by Oxfam & UNDP in
Viet Nam earlier this year
 Background research for the UN Human
Development Report 2007 ‘Climate change
and human development – risk and
vulnerability in a warming world’
 Much that we still don’t know about climate
change in Viet Nam & potential impacts…..
And the headlines…..
 WB (2007) study - Viet Nam one of the top 5
countries most at risk from sea level rise
 1 metre rise could reduce GDP by 10%, 3-5 metre rise
‘potentially catastrophic’
 22 million people could be displaced
 CC about more than just sea level rise – variability &
intensity of climate related weather events seem to
be increasing
 The rural poor are most at risk – heavily reliant upon
(climate vulnerable) natural resources
 Local collective traditions changing as wealth
increases – better-off better able to cope, unclear
where this leaves the poor
Vulnerability to Natural Disasters
by Region

1991 – 2000: 8,000+ people killed by natural disasters, 9,000
boats sunk, 6 million houses destroyed (CCFSC 2001)
Typology of Climate Related Natural Hazards by Region in Viet Nam
Region of Viet Nam
North
Disaster Zone
Northern Uplands
Red River Delta
Centre
Central
Coast
Provinces
Central Highlands
Mekong River Delta
South
Principle Disaster Hazards
Flash floods, landslides, earthquakes
Monsoon river floods, typhoons, coastal
storm surges
Typhoons, storm surges, flash floods,
drought, saline water intrusion
Flash floods, landslides
River flooding, typhoons, high tides and
storm surges, salt water intrusion
(Source: CCFSC)

Coastal zone vulnerability acute – quarter of the total
population, nearly 60% dependent upon agriculture,
fishing & aquaculture
Climate Change Trends &
Predictions: Temperature & Rainfall
 1900- 2000, avg annual temps increased by
0.1°C per decade
 Predicted that temps will increase 1.4-1.5°C
by 2050 and 2.5-2.8°C by 2100
 Changes in rainfall patterns season and
region specific but expected to increase 2.54.8% by 2050, and 4.7- 8.8% by 2100
 Annual rainfall already decreasing in July &
August and increasing in Sept- October
 CC set to make rainfall more uneven and
variable over time and space
Climate Change Trends & Predictions:
Floods, Drought & Typhoons
 Rainfall variability will intensify problems of flood
and drought
 Coast highly vulnerable to flooding, particularly in
the Mekong and Red River Deltas
 Floods appear to be intensifying, though may reflect
increased settlement, cultivation & infrastructure
 Viet Nam in the top 10 of countries most vulnerable
to tropical cyclones (avg 6.9 per year)
 Intensity seems to be increasing (Damrey, Chanchu)
 Peak month shifted from August in the 1950s, to
November in the 1990s
Sea Level Rise
 HydroMet Dept estimates seawater level is
rising at an average 2mm per year
 Predictions for the future differ – national
experts predicting up to 1m by 2100, but
IPCC estimate 28-58cm to 2100 (3-6mm p/y)
though there are different scenarios…..
 Viet Nam particularly vulnerable with the
concentration of industry & agric in the lowlying delta regions
Impacts on Agriculture, Fisheries &
Aquaculture
 30cm sea level rise would increase Mekong
tributaries salinity 10km inland
 Agric also threatened by drought & typhoons
 Could have significant impact on rice production for
export, & food security
 Temp increases too could affect growing periods,
yields, crop calendars & crop distribution
 Wild fisheries will be impacted – less higher
commercial value catch & fish body mass affected by
decrease in plankton
 Loss of fish habitat – coral reefs and mangrove
 Aquaculture prod. threatened by sea water intrusion
All Occurring Within a Changing
Socio-Economic Context……
 Transition from centrally planned, to market economy
behind Viet Nam’s recent success
 Has, though, resulted in the privatisation of what was
formerly ‘the commons’ (ie. mangrove) with impacts
upon the poor, and CC protection
 A changing role for the state (ie. local taxes and hired
workers over household labour contributions)
 Open question is whether decollectivisation erodes
community solidarity & thus communal risk
management/ protection for the poor when faced with
natural disasters?
 Do the state & mass organisations fill the gaps?
And now, the good news!
 Viet Nam well placed to respond to the
challenge of climate change
 GoV recognises the importance of the
climate change threat (ratified UNFCCC in
1994, Kyoto Protocol in 2002)
 There is state capacity to take meaningful
action
 Much more, though, needs to be done….
 INC to UNFCCC in 2003 (but no specific
progs, largely qualitative), SNC due in 2009
Institutional Responsibility for
Climate Change Response
 National focal agency – MoNRE
 Technical experts across ministries to assist in
implementing climate change projects
 CC adaptation measures included in recent
laws and strategies (ie. Nat St. for Env Protect.
2005)
 2006 ISGE established CC adaptation working
group
 Climate Change focal point the Vice Minister of
MoNRE
Well Established Disaster Risk
Management Strategies
 Long standing institutional response system
for natural disasters (floods, typhoons)
 Coordinated by the CCFSC
 Local level Committees for Flood & Storm
Control (CFSC) – coordinate flood & storm
measures, organise dyke protection, flood
recovery
 VNRC, Fatherland Front (key role in the 2000
& 2001 Mekong floods)
 Other initiatives like the Natural Disaster
Mitigation Partnership (NDM-P) between
Govt, donors, NGOs
BUT… Mainstreaming & Integrating
Adaptation Measures Currently Weak
 2nd National Strategy for Disaster Mitigation &
Management (2001-20) comprehensive
 But is designed to address short-term climate
extremes, not long term climate change
 Focuses upon emergency response and
reconstruction, rather than risk prevention
and adaptation
 Lack of integration between DRR policies and
wider policies of rural development & poverty
reduction
Traditional Disaster Response
Measures……
 Extensive systems of dykes (5,000km river
dykes, 3,000km sea dykes)
 Monitored 24 hours a day during typhoon
season
 Disaster warning – linking of meteorological
data services and media
 National typhoon warning system (48 hours)
 Vinasat satellite data available from 2008
….. And Recent Climate Change
Adaptation Measures
 Emphasis upon ‘Living with the floods’ after 2000/01
floods in Mekong Delta (fields and forests to store flood
water, safe settlement areas, flood proof schools, day
care centres)
 Safer housing projects (CECI & DW), ecosystem
management (IUCN), awareness raising & capacity
building (VNRC/NRC) & reforestation through the CDM
(VNRC/SNV)
 In agric: changing seed varieties and crops, short
duration temp. resistant seeds, temp resistant shrimp
breeds, diversification to small scale enterprises,
drought resistant fodder crops and new animal breeds
Conclusion: Responding to the
Climate Change Challenge
 Adaptation to CC dependent upon people’s
entitlements to access & use resources
 Reducing poverty still the best way to ensure human
security – enabling those most at risk to adapt their
livelihoods
 Integrated and comprehensive national and local
level adaptation strategies needed
 CC needs to be factored in to all strategies for
ensuring continued economic growth and poverty
reduction
 Vietnam in a strong moral position to lead demands
for binding cuts by major polluters