Transcript Elements of climate science- policy interaction in Germany

Elements of regional climate
science- society interaction in Germany
Hans von Storch
Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht
clisap-Exzellenzzentrum, Klimacampus, Universität Hamburg
[email protected], http://coast.gkss.de/staff/storch
Needed:
• Separation of popular constructions in the media and of
scientifically valid assessments.
• Generally understandable description of recent and ongoing
regional climate change based on scientific results
• Generally understandable description of possible regional
climate changes in the future („scenarios“)
• Analysis and derivation of options, from reduction of emissions,
to better adaptation, reduction of vulnerability to local
mitigation of climate related change.
• Assessment of knowledge on regional climate change (e.g.,
BACC) derived with scientific methods
These tasks are integrated in “regional climate offices“ and a
“Climate Service Center” to improve science-stakeholder
interaction in particular regions and on the national/European
level
Two different construction of „climate change“ –
scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Scientific: man-made change is real,
can be mitigated to some extent but
not completely avoided
Lund and Stockholm
Storm count
Knowledge about ongoing change …
Such as shown by the BACC
report, or by the weather
services, e.g., DMI or SMHI
Centered 99%-iles
(top) and annual
means of high
water levels at
Cuxhaven,
Germany.
www.coastdat.de
The CoastDat data set:
GKSS in Geesthacht
• Long (50 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and
coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents
and other variables in N Europe
• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore
conditions
• extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea
Clients:
• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and
coastal traffic
• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and
opportunities (wind energy)
• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and
options of change
Expected changes in temperature,
precipitation and strong winds 2030-2040
Scenarios A2, B2, different models
Temperature
Max Wind
Precipitation
Expected changes in temperature,
precipitation and strong winds 2071-2100
Scenarios A2, B2, different models
Temperature
Max Wind
Precipitation
Changing storm surge heights in
Cuxhaven und Hamburg
Without subsidence or coastal engineering modifications of the
river Elbe.
Dealing with rising sea level and elevated storm surge
heights in Hamburg
1. Additional flooding areas
The Tidal Elbe concept
of Hamburg Port Authority
2. Availability of additional polders to be
flooded during severe storm surges to
cap the peaks of such surges.
3. Additional dissipation of tidal
(and surge) energy by narrowing
the mouth segment of the estuary
Heinz Glindemann, HPA, pers. comm.
A mitigation option: reversing (part of) the
urban warming by „regional geo-engineering“
Gill et al.,2007
Assessing
scientifically
legitimate
knwoledge
claims about
regional climate
change
climate consensus reports
Assessments about regional climate change
- for the recent past (200 years), for present change and
possible future change
- consensus of what is scientifically documented
for
+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – done; 2nd report due in 2012
+ Hamburg region (underway)
+ North Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven)
+ Laptev Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven)
in cooperation with
HELCOM
Generation & Dissemination
of Climate Knowledge
Regional level
North German Climate Office
other regional activities
National level
Climate Service Center (CSC) at
GKSS (as national research lab)
Information Needs
Research Results
Bridging
the Gap
Society
Economy
Politics/Administration
Science
North German Climate Office
What do we offer?
Communication of
regional climate change
information.
Support for correct use
and interpretation of
regional climate changes
scenarios.
Determination of
informational and
interpretative needs
among stakeholders
Requests for talks
Total number of talks since 2006:
Science
15%
Climate sensitive
sectors
24%
Politicians and
authorities
19%
Education
20%
Organisations
22%
112
Average number of presentations
per months.
Jan. 2006-March 2007:
March 2007-Feb. 2008:
March 2008-Jan. 2009:
1,0
4,6
3,7
Regional level:
National level:
International level:
69%
19%
12%
Climate Service Center (CSC)
Objectives:
•
•
•
•
Contact point
Consulting
Generation of Data and Knowledge Base
Active Dissemination
Cooperation with
network of existing
institutions
Climate Service Center (approx. 20 pers)
Federal ministries
presently set up
Simulation
&
Data
Assessment
Consulting
Communication
- of Education and
Research (BMBF)
- for the Environment and
Nature Conservation (BMU)
- of Transport, Building and
Urban Affairs (BMVBS)
To remember …
• Anthropogenic climate change happens now + here.
• Emerges in temperature and related quantities
• Is mainly caused by elevated greenhouse gas
concentrations.
• Even a very successful „climate protection“ policy
will only limit climate change, not eradicate it.
• A necessity for significant adaptation measures will
remain, which needs the administrative and political
attention on the regional level.
• Institutions for two-way exchange between science
and stakeholders needed.
• Knowledge about regional climate change, impacts
and options is needed.