Transcript Utility of Coastal Sciences

Utility of coastal science
Hans von Storch
Institute of Coastal Research
Helmholtz Center Geesthacht
Germany
Based upon:
von Storch, H., K. Emeis, I. Meinke, A. Kannen, V. Matthias, B. W. Ratter, E. Stanev,
R. Weisse and K. Wirtz, 2015: Making coastal research useful - cases from practice.
Oceanologica 57, 3-16 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2014.09.001
VON STORCH Hans
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Climate researcher (in the field since 1971)
Coastal climate (storms, storm surges,
waves; North and Baltic Sea, North
Atlantic, Huang Hai); statistical analysis
Director of the Institute of Coastal
Research of the Helmholtz Zentrum
Geesthacht, Germany
Professor at Universität Hamburg
Guest professor at the 中国海洋大学
Chinese web page:
http://www.hvonstorch.de/klima/
china/Hans von Storch.china.htm
Coastal research deals with that part of the sea, which is significantly affected by the
land, and the part of the land, which is significantly affected by the sea. Coasts are in
most cases densely populated, and the activities of people are shaping and changing
the land/seascape of the coast. Thus, coast encompasses the coastal sea, the coastal
land, coastal flora and fauna, and people. Since peoples’ economic and political
preferences change and compete, the human impact on the coast changes is contested
and subject to societal decision making processes.
All decision making processes are political, so that scientific knowledge is not the
dominant driver in such processes.
Using cases from the Institute of Coastal Research of Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht,
we describe some of these potentially useful parts of science, and discuss under which
circumstances the potential usefulness transform into real utility.
These cases do not span the full range of coastal science.
Issues in Coastal Research with the potential of
societal utility:
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Making Sense
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
Monitoring
Hazards, Risks and Opportunities
Scenarios
More …
Making sense refers to the scientific understanding of
complex phenomena, and its use for supporting societal framing
and decision making.
Examples are consequences of eutrophication or the manifestation
of natural system variations vis-a-vis anthropogenic climate
change.
Meaning-providing frames, which allow for causal interpretation
and understanding, satisfy not only curiosity, but allow for
engineering preparedness and options for specific stakeholders. A
significant constraint is that science is not the sole supplier of such
understanding, but other knowledge brokers are active as well.
Inhomogeneities of near surface wind speed
measurements
1.25
m/s
Lindenberg, J., H.-T. Mengelkamp, and G. Rosenhagen, 2012: Representativity of near surface wind measurements
from coastal stations at the German Bight. Meteor. Z. 21: 99 - 106. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0131
… Change in 1990 caused by relocation of instrument
Lindenberg et al., 2012
Making sense
What is the process behind the marked increase of storm surge heights in Hamburg
since the 1970s?
Storm surges as recorded at the tide gauge St Pauli in Hamburg. The green horizontal bars indicate
stipulated dike heights. Dike failures are marked by red stars. The color codes mark surge heights. Data
provided by Gabriele Gönnert.
Consistency of recent local change:
Storm surges in Hamburg
Difference betwenn peak heights of storm
surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg
Main cause for recently elevated
storm surges in Hamburg is the
modification of the river Elbe –
(coastal defense and shipping
channel deepening) and less so
because of changing storms or sea
level.
von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and
options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) describes the
“public process of analyzing and allocating the spatial and
temporal distribution of human activities in marine areas to
achieve ecological, economic and social objectives that have been
specified through a political process”.
MSP needs mostly quantitative information from natural sciences
for project-specific technical planning exercises, but in addition
social science needs to provide mainly qualitative information
concerning societal and political context and structures to inform
decision makers in strategic planning.
Coastal science is not doing MSP as such, but in research in
conditions of how to implement MSP.
Monitoring aims at the assessment of the current status
of the coastal environment and short term trends, and their
(deterministic) short-term forecasts.
Such assessments are based on observations and related (modelguided) data analysis. The process of making data, assessments
and forecasts available for users is also a challenge.
Coastal science is not doing the routine of monitoring as such,
but in research on how to implement the process of monitoring.
COSYNA – North Sea
COSYNA (Coastal Observing System for
Northern and Arctic Seas) is a synoptic
observing system for the
environmental status of the North Sea.
Numerous automatic in situ and
satellite observations are continuously
assimilated in models, thus producing
hourly real-time forecasts of high
quality.
The data are used by science, industry,
and authorities.
Operational COSYNA Products
Nordsee
Actual state & forecast:
•current
•waves
Land-Meer-Interaktionen
Räumliche und zeitliche
Variabilität
Trends
Events, Risiken
•salinity
•temperature
•turbidity / chlorophyll
Application:
•oil spills/chemical accidents
•toxic algal blooms
•wind farms
Photo: NASA
Product: Currents
Nordsee
Land-Meer-Interaktionen
Räumliche und zeitliche
Variabilität
Trends
Events, Risiken
Photo: NASA
Assessments of
hazards, risks and opportunities
are needed for almost any kind of onshore and offshore operation.
An important component of this activity is the determination of
ongoing long-term changes.
The situation is particularly challenging, when too short, too
fragmented or only inhomogeneous observed data are available.
Then, sometimes, model-derived estimates can be used.
Tools for regional climate servicing
homogeneous data sets of past and future change
The CoastDat data set:
GKSS in Geesthacht
• Model generated data sets
• Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and
coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents
and other variables in N Europe
• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore
conditions.
• extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev
Sea
Clients:
• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and
coastal traffic
• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations)
and opportunities (wind energy)
• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and
options of change
Some applications of
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Interpretation of measurements
- Oils spill risk and chronic oil
pollution
- Ocean energy
- Scenarios of storm surge conditions
- Scenarios of future wave conditions
Currents Power [W/m2]
Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
Scenarios, differently to forecasts, address questions of the
type “What may happen, if … and nothing else”.
Such projections provide a useful outlook for assessing
consequences of possible future developments and uncertainties.
Therefore scenarios have become increasingly popular in various
scientific and decision making contexts.
Storm surge height scenarios 2030, 2085
Policy advice
a) Sea level, and storm surges, will rise; the
extent is very uncertain.
b) Until 2040, or so, coastal defense with
present planning levels is sufficient
c) After 2040, coastal defense may become
insufficient.
d) Suggestions for near future
- improve technology (e.g., overflow)
- monitor ongoing change
- plan for organizational measures to deal
with enhanced risk, and involve population in
participatory efforts
- do all coastal defense modernization so that
future additional fortifications are possible
- be prepared to implement decisions in
20 years
Knowledge transfer to “clients”?
For making scientific insights useful, these insights must be brought to the attention
of clients (stakeholders : decision makers, media, public).
Many natural scientists believe that the knowledge transfer is merely an issue of
explaining properly the scientific insights. However, that is not true.
Knowledge transfer …
… entails not only information provision and contextualization of research findings,
but an analysis of the “knowledge market”. Science-stakeholder interaction becomes
multifaceted and complicated.
Social and cultural science knowledge is urgently needed for a successful
participation of science in the process of advising decision making.
How strongly do you employ the
following sources of information,
for deciding about issues related to
climate adaptation?
Regional administrators in German
Baltic Sea coastal regions.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.
Tools for regional climate servicing
climate con/dis-sensus reports
Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change
- for the recent past (200 years), for present change and
possible future change
- consensus of what is scientifically documented
- documentation of contested issues.
for
+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008,
BACC 2 just published (April 2015)
+ Hamburg region (#1 published November 2010; #2 just
initiated)
+ North Sea (in final phase)
Full reports and condensed reports for general public.
Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch,
2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic
Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 161-162
Coastal research deals with that part of the sea, which is significantly affected by the
land, and the part of the land, which is significantly affected by the sea. Coasts are in
most cases densely populated, and the activities of people are shaping and changing
the land/seascape of the coast. Thus, coast encompasses the coastal sea, the coastal
land, coastal flora and fauna, and people. Since peoples’ economic and political
preferences change and compete, the human impact on the coast changes is contested
and subject to societal decision making processes.
We have addressed the issues of
- Making sense
- Marine Spatial Planning
- Monitoring
- Hazards, Risks and Opportunities
- Scenarios
The cases presented cover only part of coastal sciences.