Transcript Regional Climate Service

Regional Climate Service
Hans von Storch1;2; Insa Meinke1;7,2; Nico Stehr3; Beate Ratter1; Werner
Krauss1; Roger A. Pielke jr4 Reiner Grundmann5; Marcus Reckermann1;6;
Ralf Weisse1
1. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
2. KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
3. Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany
4. Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, U of Colorado, Boulder CO, United States
5. Ashton University, Birmingham, United Kingdom
6. BALTEX Secretariat, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
7. North German Climate Office, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
1
Climate science informs climate policy about needs,
options and measures.
In doing so, there is a need for knowledge abut climate dynamics,
climate perspectives, impacts, vulnerabilities and the efficiency of
measures (for mitigation and adaptation).
This process may be called “Climate Service”. For the global and for
the regional stage, different stakeholders are relevant.
Significant components of the national and international
dimension have to do with mitigation, and global and
superregional issues. This is Global Climate Service.
When dealing with regions (state-level, municipalities,
sectors), adaptation has most often priority, and the
process is called Regional Climate Service.
2
A „linear
model“framework of
how to think
about response
strategies
(Hasselmann, 1990)
3
Constructions
• Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly
experience „climate change“.
• One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of
observations and interpretation by theories.
• The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained
and transformed by the public media.
• Climate science is in a post-normal phase (where interestled utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal”
curiosity)
4
Is scientific knowledge driving the policy process?
5
Postnormal science
State of science, when facts uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and
decisions urgent. (Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier)
Climate science is postnormal, see Bray and von Storch, 1998
In this state, science is not done for reasons of curiosity but is asked
for as support for preconceived value-based agendas.
Needs attention at the border society/science; self reflection by
science; critical analysis by cultural sciences.
Further reading:
von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions
of Knowledge. Env. Science Pol. 12, 741‐747
von Storch, H., A. Bunde and N. Stehr, 2011: The Physical Sciences and Climate Politics. In J.S.
Dyzek, D. Schlosberg, and R. B. Norgaard (eds): The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and
Society. Oxford University Press. Oxford UK (in press)
6
Two different construction of „climate change“
– scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Temperature
Scientific: man-made change is
real, can be mitigated to some
extent but not completely avoided
Lund and Stockholm
Storms
7
8
9
Knowledge market
• The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the
linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“.
• The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated.
• Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions
and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”.
• The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted
on the „explanation marked“ with other forms of
knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win”
this competition.
• The social process „science“ is influenced by these other
knowledge forms.
10
Regional Climate service comprises …
1. Analysis of cultural construct, including
common exaggeration in the media.
- Determination of response options on the local and
regional scale: mainly adaptation but also regional
and local mitigation.
- Dialogue of stakeholders and
climate knowledge brokers in „Klimabureaus“.
2. Analysis of consensus on relevant issues (climate
consensus reports).
3. Description of recent and present changes.
- Projection of possible future changes, which are
dynamically consistent and possible („scenarios“)
11
North German Climate Office@HZG
An institution set up to enable communication between
science and stakeholders
• that is: making sure that science understands the questions
and concerns of a variety of stakeholders
• that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the
scientific assessments and their limits.
Typical stakeholders:
Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy),
tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning
12
1
Local scenarios
13
„Klimaatlas“
 Raw data from 12 regional climate projections
 Analyzed for Northern Germany
 Interactive user interface
14
climate consensus reports
2
Assessments of knowledge
about regional climate change
- for the recent past (200 years), for present
change and possible future change
- consensus of what is scientifically
documented
for
+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done,
BACC 2 just launched
+ Hamburg region (published November 2010)
+ North Sea (just launched)
15
Regional and local conditions –
in the recent past and next century?
Simulation with barotropic
model of Noth Sea
3
Globale development
(NCEP)
Dynamical downscaling
REMO or CLM
Cooperation with a variety of
governmental agencies and with a
number of private companies
Pegel St. Pauli
Empirical downscaling
16
www.coastdat.de
The CoastDat data set:
GKSS in Geesthacht
• Long (50 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and
coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and
currents and other variables in N Europe
• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore
conditions
• extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea
Clients:
• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and
coastal traffic
• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations)
and opportunities (wind energy)
• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and
options of change
17
Some applications of
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Interpretation of measurements
- Oils spill risk and chronic oil
pollution
- Ocean energy
- Scenarios of storm surge conditions
- Scenarios of future wave conditions
Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
Currents Power [W/m2]
18
Task of science is
• to offer explanation for a complex world, its
dynamics, links and dependencies.
• but not to derive what needs to be done, but
what can be done.
• establish measures to establish quality of
science by insisting on scientific method (cf.
Merton‘s CUDOS).
• The capital of science is not the utility of the
scientific findings but the methodology used to
obtain such findings.
19
Merton‘s CUDOS
• Communalism: the common ownership of scientific
discoveries, according to which scientists give up
intellectual property rights in exchange for recognition and
esteem.
• Universalism: according to which claims to truth are
evaluated in terms of universal or impersonal criteria, and
not on the basis of race, class, gender, religion, or
nationality.
• Disinterestedness: scientists, when presenting their work
publicly, should do so without any prejudice or personal
values and do so in an impersonal manner.
• Organized skepticism: all ideas must be tested and are
subject to rigorous, structured community (peer review)
scrutiny.
20
Take home
• Societal service of science is the provision of
explanation of complex phenomena, using the
scientific methodology a la Merton (CUDOS).
• Climate science operates in a post-normal situation,
which goes along with a tendency of policizing science,
and scientizing politics. Cultural science need to
support climate science to deal with this challenge.
• Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which
includes the establishment of a dialogue with the
public (direct or via media) and stakeholders –
recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue.
21