Transcript Presentation of GKSS in ZMAW / Shanghai 2007

Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS
GKSS is a member of the Hermann
von Helmholtz Association of National
Research Centres (HGF e. V.)
Hans von Storch, director
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Shanghai, August 2007
GKSS Research Program – today
We perform
fundamental and applied research
Research for
Lightweight Structures
Membranes
Managing the
for Transportation
in Process
Coastal Zone
and Energy Industries
Technology
Material Science
Chemistry
In the Institutes for:
Coastal Research
Shanghai, August 2007
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Institute for Coastal Research
of GKSS Research Center
Key research questions addressed by the GKSS coastal
research program are
• How is global change affecting the coastal system?
• What is the present state and present change of the
coastal zone?
• How can we reliably and cost-effectively monitor
coastal processes?
Shanghai, August 2007
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Coasts are …
• multi-dimensional environments (geophysical,
ecological, social, economic), the character and
utilization of which are shaped by the relationship to
the sea.
• a subsystem of the global Earth System. As such, a
comprehensive view and analysis is only possible
using an Earth System modeling approach.
• under the influences of global changes in the
environmental system (climate change) and in the
social system (globalization; aestheticization).
• key regions for global ecosystems
• significant factors of global cycles of matter
(sources; temporary storage)
Shanghai, August 2007
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Coastal areas
are made up of
• coastal sea
• coastal land
• catchment
climate
variability
and change
Shanghai, August 2007
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Institutions/Platforms engaged
in GKSS/AWI cooperation
Sylt
Helgoland
FTZ
Uni Kiel
Uni HH
Bremerhaven
Geesthacht
Uni Bremen
Shanghai, August 2007
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Issues briefly touched in the following
1. CoastDat –
retrospective and prospective
decadal simulations of marine weather
– North Sea; also: E Asian coastal regions.
2. North German Climate Office
3. BALTEX Assessment for Climate Change
in the Baltic Sea Region
Shanghai, August 2007
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Regional and local conditions –
in the recent past and next
century
Simulation with barotropic
model of North Sea
Globale development
(NCEP)
Tide gauge St. Pauli
Dynamical Downscaling
REMO or CLM
Cooperation with a variety of
governmental agencies and with a
number of private companies
Shanghai, August 2007
Empirical
Downscaling
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NCEP Global Reanalyses 1958 - 2002
IPCC A2 Global Warming Scenario, 2070 - 2100
SN-REMO storm count trend
SN-REMO
wind speed and
1958-2002
direction 21.02.1993 12 UTC
D ≈ 200km
TRIM 3d storm
TRIM
surge
3d statistics
water
change
levelinand
high
barotropic
percentiles,
currents
A2
scenario
21.02.1993
2070-2100
12 UTC
WAM sig. wave height
trendand
in severe
direction
events
21.02.1993 12 UTC
grid size about 5 x 5 km
grid size between about 100 m and 5km
grid size about 50 x 50 km
Shanghai, August 2007
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The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for
Coastal Research@GKSS
 Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (50 years) of present and recent
developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as
scenarios of future developments (100 years)
 Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe
 “Standard” model systems (“frozen”)
 Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and
regional transport of anthropogenic substances.
 Data freely available.
Applications
 many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts
 economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and
risks) and shipbuilding company
Public information

www.coastdat.de
Shanghai, August 2007
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A comparative study on the retrospective
simulation of typhoon seasons in SE Asia
• As a prerequisite to derive and assess changing statistics of
typhoon formation in SE Asia, simulation models should
demonstrate their capability to simulate year-to-year variations of
typhoon statistics in SE Asia during the past 40-50 years.
• During this period, NCEP and ERA have constructed globalreanalyses describing the large scale atmospheric state with
some fidelity, but spatial details are not that well described.
Therefore regional atmospheric models, forced with global reanalyses, may be a suitable tool to reconstruct the past decades’
variability.
• A number of partners have agreed on a comparative study,
namely to run their different regional atmospheric models for the
storm-rich season of 1994 and the storm-poor season of 1998.
The focus of the analysis will be on the number of storms, their
tracks and their core pressure developments as well as on the
mean circulation.
Shanghai, August 2007
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Participating modelling groups
• GKSS, Dr. Frauke Feser, Geesthacht, Germany, with the spectrally nudged
model CLM.
• National Taiwan University, Prof. Ming-Chin Wu, Taipei, Taiwan, with RSM
• National Central University, Prof. C. Sui, Jung-Li, Taiwan, with the MM5
model
• Seoul National University, Prof Dong-Kyou Lee, Seoul, S Korea, with the
model REG-CM2 and a bogus-technique to introduce typhoons
Data for atmospheric conditions will be helped with by
• Central Weather Bureau, Dr. Mong-Ming Lu, Taipei, Taiwan
• Prof Tim Li, IPRC, with his model-based analysis of the 2004-season.
Since analyses of wind on the sea are of limited reliability, a validation using
derived wave conditions may be helpful. An agreement has been made that
National Cheng Kung University, Prof. Chia Chuen Kao, Tainan, Taiwan will
use the wind and pressure output of the regional models to run an ocean
wave model and compare the
outputAugust
to ocean
Shanghai,
2007wave observations. Page 12
North German Climate Office@GKSS
An institution set up to enable communication between
science and stakeholders
• that is: making sure that science understands the
questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders
• that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the
scientific assessments and their limits.
Typical stakeholders:
Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy),
tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning
Shanghai, August 2007
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BALTEX
Assessment
for Climate
Change in
the Baltic
Sea Region
Shanghai, August 2007
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BACC: The purpose …
… of the BACC assessment was to provide the scientific
community and the public with an assessment of ongoing
and future climate change in the Baltic Sea region. This
was done by reviewing published scientific knowledge
about climate change in the Baltic Sea region.
An important element was the comparison with the historical
past (until about 1800) to provide a framework for the
severity and unusualness of the change.
Also changes in environmental systems, due to climate
change, were assessed – such as hydrological regimes and
ecosystems.
Shanghai, August 2007
BACC report: Chapters
1. Introduction and Policy Advise
2. Past and Current Climate Change
3. Projections of Future Climate Change
4. Climate-related Change in Terrestrial and
Freshwater Ecosystems
5. Climate-related Change in Marine
Ecosystems
6. Annexes
Shanghai, August 2007
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BACC results: In short …
 Presently a warming is going on in the Baltic Sea
region.
 BACC considers it plausible that this warming is at
least partly related to anthropogenic factors.
 So far, and in the next few decades, the signal is
limited to temperature and directly related variables,
such as ice conditions.
 Later, changes in the water cycle are expected to
become obvious.
 This regional warming will have a variety of effects on
terrestrial and marine ecosystems – some predictable
such as the changes in the phenology others so far
hardly predictable.
Shanghai, August 2007
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BACC: HELCOM analysis
• BACC report officially accepted by HELCOM
board as basis for further for analysis in March
2007.
• Based upon the BACC review HELCOM has
prepared its own analysis of recent, ongoing and
future climate change in the Baltic Sea region –
and the implications for environmental politics.
• Problem: tight timeline at HELCOM
vs. quality control at BACC.
Shanghai, August 2007
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Geoscience Institutes@Hamburg University
Climate Research done at:
• Institute for Oceanography:
global ocean re-analysis;
regional oceanography.
• Institute for Meteorology;
dynamical meteorology,
predictability (incl. typhoons);
urban climate.
• and other institutes, dealing with soils,
forests, marine ecosystems and economy.
Shanghai, August 2007
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Shanghai, August 2007
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Climate science in Hamburg, Germany
A series of world-class scientific institutions in Hamburg:
• the Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology,
• the geosciences institutes of Hamburg University and
• the Institute for Coastal Research of the federal research
laboratory GKSS.
• and their joint “daughter”, the German Climate Computer
Center
plus a series of (partly) climate related service and application
institutions, among others:
Office for Marine Weather (DWD),
the Federal Waterways Engineering,
Research Institute (BAW),
the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH)
and the municipal Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)
Shanghai, August 2007
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