Transcript Albert Klein Tank

‘Extremes in a changing climate’
Opening and workshop objective
Albert.Klein.Tank @ KNMI.nl
De Bilt, Wednesday 14 May 2008
Organization
This workshop is jointly organized by the:
• Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and
Indices (ETCCDI) of WMO-CCL, CLIVAR and JCOMM
• EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES, RT5
(ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of
Climate Changes and their Impacts)
De Bilt, Wednesday 14 May 2008
Agenda
Tuesday 13 May: Progress meeting for ETCCDI members (Room Buys Ballot)
√
Wednesday 14 May: Joint workshop ‘Extremes in a changing climate’ (Room Buys Ballot)
Thursday 15 May: Joint workshop ‘Extremes in a changing climate’ (Room Buys Ballot)
Friday 16 May: Progress meeting for ENSEMBLES-WP5.4 members (Room Vening-Meinesz)
Friday 16 May: Meeting on ‘Issues of scaling’ (Room Buys Ballot)
De Bilt, Wednesday 14 May 2008
Workshop objective (1 of 4)
• Key question: “How to assess probabilities of
extremes in a non-stationary climate?”
De Bilt, Wednesday 14 May 2008
Workshop objective (2 of 4)
• In traditional engineering
practices, the design criteria
for safety of infrastructure
are typically based on
historical observations,
assuming a stationary
climate
De Bilt, Wednesday 14 May 2008
Workshop objective (3 of 4)
• Climate change adaptation strategies need to
account for non-stationarity, but the best way to do
this is still under debate:
– How should the observed changes in extremes in the past
be included in such analysis?
– What is the best way to deal with the available
(probabilistic) future climate projections based on model
ensembles?
De Bilt, Wednesday 14 May 2008
Workshop objective (4 of 4)
• The specific objective of the
workshop is to gather the
information needed to
produce a WMO-CCL
Guidance Statement on
assessing probabilities of
extremes in a changing
climate
De Bilt, Wednesday 14 May 2008
Logistics
• Coffee/tea and lunch will be served (free of charge)
in the corridor or in one of the opposite rooms
• PCs with internet access are placed in the corridor
(no wireless available!)
• A welcome reception will be held in the ‘KNMI
bedrijfsrestaurant’, 4th floor, Today 17:00-18:00
De Bilt, Wednesday 14 May 2008