Transcript Albert Klein Tank

Closure of workshop
‘Extremes in a changing climate’
De Bilt, Thursday 15 May 2008
Follow-up (1 of 4)
• The ETCCDI will collect the workshop outcome
and produce a WMO-CCL Guidance Statement on
the question:
“How to assess probabilities of extremes in a
changing climate?”
De Bilt, Thursday 15 May 2008
Follow-up (2 of 4)
• This guidance is targetted at
NMSs around the world who
need to deal with practical
questions in climate change
adaptation strategies
(extremes tables / return
periods for non-stationary
conditions, etc.)
De Bilt, Thursday 15 May 2008
Follow-up (3 of 4)
• Guidance will reflect that the best way to do this is
still under debate, but we have seen many good
presentations on issues like:
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observed changes in extremes in the past
statistical tools to deal with nonstationarity & spatial extr.
how good can models simulate extremes?
how to analyse this, given scaling issues, etc.
including covariates is helpful
how to best use probabilistic future climate projections
…
De Bilt, Thursday 15 May 2008
Follow-up (4 of 4)
•
The EU-project ENSEMBLES will continue
for another year, and extremes will be
one of the important cross-cutting themes
(www.ensembles-eu.org)
De Bilt, Thursday 15 May 2008
Presentations
• We plan to make all workshop presentations
available from the ETCCDI website (if the authors
do not object)
De Bilt, Thursday 15 May 2008
Organization
This workshop is jointly organized by the:
• Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and
Indices (ETCCDI) of WMO-CCL, CLIVAR and JCOMM
• EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES, RT5
(ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of
Climate Changes and their Impacts)
De Bilt, Thursday 15 May 2008
Agenda for tomorrow morning
Tuesday 13 May: Progress meeting for ETCCDI members (Room Buys Ballot)
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Wednesday 14 May: Joint workshop ‘Extremes in a changing climate’ (Room Buys Ballot)
Thursday 15 May: Joint workshop ‘Extremes in a changing climate’ (Room Buys Ballot)
Friday 16 May: Progress meeting for ENSEMBLES-WP5.4
members (Room Vening-Meinesz)
Friday 16 May: Meeting on ‘Issues of scaling’ (Room Buys Ballot)
De Bilt, Thursday 15 May 2008