Transcript Global Climate Change: An Engineering NGO Perspective

Global Climate Change: An
Engineering NGO Perspective
by
Bill Wallace
presented to
ASCE International Conference
Weston Convention Center, Pittsburgh
November 5, 2008
Professional Perspectives in Addressing Climate Change
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Bill Wallace Bio
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Founder and President, Wallace Futures Group, LLC,
Steamboat Springs, Colorado, USA
Book author: Becoming Part of the Solution: The
Engineer’s Guide to Sustainable Development
Past-president of Engineers Without Borders–USA
Member of the ASCE Committee on Sustainability
Chair of the International Federation of Consulting
Engineers (FIDIC) Sustainable Development Committee
Subcommittee Chair of ACEC Environment & Energy
Committee
Member of the Democratic National Convention Green
Team
Former Liaison Delegate to the World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
21 years at CH2M HILL in various senior positions
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Summary
• Engineering industry perspectives on climate
change
• Role of engineers in addressing climate
change
– Engineering industry associations have long been
advocates for the engineering business
– It’s time to change that role
– Bridge the gaps among society, science and
politics
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Addressing Climate Change in Steamboat Springs
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Scientific Certainty Argumentation Method
(S.C.A.M.)
• Scientific evidence for making policy decisions is
always ambiguous or incomplete
– “Uncertainty space” in scientific arguments creates
rich opportunities for gaming the system
• S.C.A.M. technique on global climate change
– Demand scientific certainty
– Point to contrarian studies as “proof” that uncertainty
exists
– Delay policy decisions and action
– Extends the life of old paradigms
Reference: William Freudenburg, Robert Gramling, Debre Davidson, “SCAMming environmental policy: policymakers crave certainty, but
almost all science operates in shades of gray,” WorldWatch, May 1, 2008.
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Climate Changes Policies in the
Engineering Industry Associations
• American Council of Engineering Companies
(ACEC)
– “Carbon Balancing”
• International Federation of Consulting
Engineers (FIDIC)
– No published policies
– Reactions of individual associations
• Australia: ACEA
• The Netherlands: ORNI
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ORNI
(Dutch Association of Consulting Engineers)
President: Ed Nijpels, Former Netherlands Minister of the Environment
Activities related to the consulting engineering
sector as Minister
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The first National Plan for the Environment in the Netherlands
The National Plan for Integrated Spatial Planning
Other Activities
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Chairman of the National Board to Reinforce the Building
Industry
Chairman of the International Waddensea Forum
Chairman of the Climate Centre of the International Red Cross
Chairman of the Foundation Water for Life
Member of the Governmental Committee for PPP in
infrastructure
Member of the Advisory Board for Delta Technology 21st
Century
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Ed Nijpels, ORNI
Why a Politician?
Consulting Engineers Have
Consulting Engineers Lack
• Knowledge
• Capabilities
• Technical skills
• Organization
• Position
to improve living
conditions in the
world,
• Avowed ambition
• Political sensibility
• Strong image
• Communication skills
to claim a leadership
position for improving
our society
But…
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Ed Nijpels, ORNI
Why is a New Approach Needed?
• Globalization
• We live in a “Risk Society”
• Relationship among society, science
and politics has changed
Who should be leading who?
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Ed Nijpels, ORNI
Consulting Engineers Can Be That
Bridge
BUT…
• Consulting engineers must
act beyond their
commission
• Consulting engineers have a
responsibility to do so
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Develop a technology roadmap for improving sustainable performance
Demand extraordinary levels of cooperation and collaboration
Revise engineering curriculums to deliver the engineer required for the 21st
century
HOW DO WE BRIDGE THE GAP?
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Do a Better Job of Defining the
Problem
• Climate change as a
symptom of a flawed
economic
development model
• Need to understand
the full breadth of the
problems we’re
dealing with
– Current situation
– Impacts and urgencies
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Climate Change as a Symptom of a Flawed
Economic Development Model
 Our current model for
economic development is not
sustainable
 Global Climate change
 Leading edge of many
problems to come
 Many are already here!
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Need to Understand the Full Breadth of the
Problems We’re Dealing With
• What are people and
organizations doing that
isn’t sustainable?
• What are the consequences
of continuing to be nonsustainable?
• How serious and urgent are
these consequences?
• What needs to be done to
fix them?
• What does it mean to be
sustainable?
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Available Resources and Carrying Capacities:
Current Situation
Ecological
overshoot
Ref: Mathis Wackernagel, et. al., “Tracking the ecological overshoot of
the human economy,” Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Jul 9;99(14):926671
Year
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Do a better job of defining the problem
What it Means to be Sustainable
(A Thermodynamic Definition)
Renewable resources (ecological)
 Use < Regeneration
Non-renewable resources
(minerals, fuels)
 Use < Rate of development
of renewable substitutes
Pollution emissions
 Emissions < Carrying capacity
of the environment
Herman E. Daly suggested these three operational rules defining the condition of
ecological (thermodynamic) sustainability.
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Understand the Impacts and Urgencies
• Changes are occurring at a
scope, scale and speed we
never thought possible
– Scope: Being felt
everywhere. More serious
for the poor, less resilient
nations
– Scale: Happening at all
scales (local, regional, global)
and in all sectors.
– Speed: Happening faster
than we ever imagined
• Climate change is the
leading edge of this
change
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Correlation of CO2 Concentration to
Temperature Rise
Source: Pew Center for Global Climate Change
CO2
Temperature
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Significant Climate Anomalies and
Events in 2007
Heat wave
Low precipitation
Heavy Snows
Heavy Rains
Drought
Extreme storm
Low temps
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Source: UNEP Year Book, 2008
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Develop a Technology Road Map
Develop a Technology Roadmap for Improving
Sustainable Performance
• Response to climate change is most urgent
– Adaptation, mitigation
• Working at the project level isn’t sufficient
– We owe it to society to challenge unsound, politicallymotivated initiatives, e.g., corn-based ethanol
• The engineering community has that the requisite
knowledge and experience
– Knows what works or can work
– Also technology gaps
– Can team with the scientific community to set research
priorities, agendas
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ASCE International Program
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Develop a Technology Road Map
Path Forward
1.6
Projections
1.4
Development and
application of
more sustainable
technologies
Number of Earths Used by Humanity
Number of Earths
1.2
Target
pathway
1.0
Number of Earths Available
0.8
Opportunities
for innovation
0.6
0.4
0.2
Today
1970
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2020
2030
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Develop a Technology Road Map
Technology Roadmap Outline
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Subject areas (framework)
Desired end state
Schedule for achieving this end state
Urgencies, deadlines
"Wild cards”
Critical technologies
Gaps in technology
Framework conditions
Actions to take, in priority order
Resource implications
Alternative scenarios, strategies,
approaches
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Demand cooperation and collaboration
Demand Extraordinary Levels of Cooperation
and Collaboration
• Requirements for addressing global climate change
– Cooperation and collaboration by all of society to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions
– Good Luck!
• Problem: “The Tragedy of the Commons”*
*"The Tragedy of the Commons," Garrett Hardin, Science, 162(1968):1243-1248.
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Revise Engineering Curriculums
Revise Engineering Curriculums to Deliver
the Engineer Required for the 21st Century
• Provide meaning and
context to engineering
education
• Development of globally
aware and internationally
responsible engineers,
students, and professionals.
• “Engineering Education 3.0”
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Revise Engineering Curriculums
“Engineering Education 3.0”
• 1.0 Age of attrition
– Solving engineering puzzles out
of context
– Engineering is not for slackers!
• 2.0 Age of competition
– Puzzles plus practicum
– Design contests, mostly single
discipline focused
– Engineering can be fun!
• 3.0 Age of contribution
– Puzzles in context
– How engineering contributes to
quality of life
– Engineering has significance!
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Closing Remarks
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Contact information:
Bill Wallace, A.M. ASCE
Member, ASCE Committee on Sustainability
Wallace Futures Group, LLC
+1(970)879-1122
[email protected]
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