Transcript Tom Blaine, Ph.D. Associate Professor(315 KB

Climate Change: Outlook for Ohio to 2050
Thomas W. Blaine, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Ohio State University Extension
October 15, 2009
Ohio’s climate has changed in the past 150 years
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it is about 1.2 degrees F warmer in the 2000s
than in the 1860s
the northern portion has warmed more than the
south
the northern portion has gotten wetter, while the
south has received less precipitation
Looking out to 2050
Ohio’s average warming will be about the same
as for the planet generally
if we assume CO2 at 450 PPM, and an average
warming of 1.75 to 2.00 degrees, then:
climate zones will shift
imagine northern tier counties like
Hancock, Richland, Wayne and Mahoning with
climates we see today in southern tier counties
like Adams, Scioto, Lawrence, and Gallia
In general the state’s climate will be
about like current climate in Missouri
the greatest temperature changes would occur in the winter
months
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winters will be mild
Lake Erie will not freeze (winter of 2001-2002
was like this)
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winters will be rainier and less snowy
there will be an increased tendency toward more
“ice storms” – freezing rain events
Lake Erie levels will likely fall due to increased
evaporation and use of water resources for
irrigation
this will present some challenges to navigation and
marinas – more frequent dredging will be
required
cold water fish species like musky and trout would
begin to be replaced by other species like blue
gill and bass
Challenges and opportunities for agriculture
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farmers are resilient and will adapt
the 120 day corn we currently see grown in the
south will replace the 105 day corn currently
grown in the north
crops not currently grown in the state will likely
be introduced – such as cotton in the south
Challenges and opportunities for agriculture
(Continued)
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Livestock operations will be under pressure particularly dairy - milk per cow is negatively
associated with higher summer temperatures (StPierre et al, 2003)
increased tendency for summer drought will
challenge farmers, and will probably lead to more
reliance on irrigation
Annual household energy demand will likely fall
winter household heating requirements will fall
substantially - more than offsetting increased
demand for cooling in the summer
Management matters – decisions matter
Much of what happens will depend upon how we
respond to the challenges and opportunities of
living in a warmer Ohio
References/ Reading
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Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The
Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
(2004). A Report of the National Assessment Synthesis
Team, U.S. Global Change Research Program, available at
http://www.gcrio.org/NationalAssessment/index.htm
Global Climate Change: NASA’s Eyes on the Earth (2009).
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of
Technology, available at http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/
Blaine, Thomas W. (1996). Global Climate Change, CDFS
186-96, available at http://ohioline.osu.edu/cdfact/pdf/0186.pdf
References/Reading (Continued)
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St-Pierre, Cobanov and Schnitkey (2003). Economic Losses
from Heat Stress by US Livestock Industries, Journal of
Dairy Science. 86: E52-E77
Christy, J.R. and R.W. Spencer, (2007). “Taking Earth's
Temperature,” UAH News, The University of Alabama in
Huntsville, available at
http://www.uah.edu/News/climatebackground.php
2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Assessment Reports, US Environmental Protection Agency,
available at
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ipcc2007.html
Please feel free to contact me
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[email protected]
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330-466-7877