Transcript Summary Why Advanced energy?

Strategy
for Advanced
Energy
in North East Ohio
July 2006
Summary
• Why Advanced energy? The two most
devastating crises we might ever
face—Energy & Climate change and
their genesis in conventional energy
• Why now? Declining supplies and
increasing demand
• Why Ohio? Economy and health of the
region
• How?
2
Energy is not well Understood
3
Sources?
4
Future Oil Supply Uncertainties
5
Reliance on Foreign Oil
www.pbs.org/.../stories/ colombia/oilb.html
6
Existing Oil Reserves by
Country
Oil reserves by country, 2005
Russia Libya Nigeria
3%
Venezuela 5%
4%
7%
United Arab
Emirates
9%
Kuwait
9%
Iraq
11%
Saudi Arabia
24%
Iran
12%
Canada
16%
Based on data from: Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47.
7
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
Jun-00
Jun-99
Jun-98
Jun-97
Jun-96
Jun-95
Jun-94
Jun-93
Jun-92
Jun-91
Jun-90
1000 barrels/ day
Imports soaring…
US Oil Production vs Imports
12000
10000
8000
6000
Production
Imports
4000
2000
0
Based on data from: EIA
8
Demand Far Outpacing Supply…
9
Global Oil Production Peaking?
Source: www.romaenergia.org
10
By some estimates, there will be an
average of two-percent annual growth
in global oil demand over the years
ahead, along with, conservatively, a
three-percent natural decline in
production from existing reserves.
That means by 2010 we will need on
the order of an additional 50
million barrels a day.
11
Solution-Discover Oil?
Source: Durango Bill-Energy Analysis
12
Some comic relief
13
Not so comic oil price
scenario
Source: New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology
14
Perspectives On Future
Oil Prices
•
•
Oil markets have entered a ``super-spike'' period that could
see 1970's-style price surges as high as $105 a barrel
``Based on our analysis of gasoline spending and the economy,
we estimate that U.S. gasoline prices may need to exceed $4 per
gallon.''
(Goldman Sachs)
•
“Oil prices may well remain high for a prolonged period of
time . . . Further rises — if they materialize — may have more
severe consequences than currently anticipated . . .”
(Bank of International Settlements, BIS)
•
"Oil is far too cheap at the moment”
(Matthew R. Simmons, Founder and Chairman, Simmons &Company
International)
•
“People are beginning to expect $80 per barrel later this year.
I can't tell you how high oil prices will rise. Nobody knows
how much of a price increase will be needed to bring supply and
demand back into balance."
(Andrew Weissman, Analyst and Chairman of Energy Ventures Group
in Washington)
15
Super-sized consumption
patterns
US vs The World
100
90
80
70
60
Percentage 50
75
81
96
World
40
US
30
20
25
10
0
4
Population
19
CO2
emissions
Based on data from: NationMaster Oil Statistics, US Census Bureau and Earth trends
16
Lost in transport!
17
US Fuel Efficiency
18
US CO2 Emissions
US CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2005
Electric Power
Sector
29%
Transportation
23%
Based on data from: EIA
Residential
15%
Commercial
13%
Industrial
20%
19
Unprecedented CO2
Concentrations
20
Rising Global Temperatures
Source: “Impacts of a warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment”, Cambridge University Press. 2004.
21
Mercury Rising
Source: “Impacts of a warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment”, Cambridge University Press. 2004.
22
Melting Polar Ice Caps
Arctic Ice Cover Changes, 1979-2005
Source: “Impacts of a warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment”, Cambridge University Press. 2004.
23
Historic and projected
scenarios
24
Hurricanes in the US
Atlantic Coast
Source: www.abi.org
25
Tornadoes in the US
Source: US Severe Weather Meteorology and Climatology
26
Insurance Losses
Source: www.abi.org
27
Rising Sea Levels
Source: NOAA
28
Impact on Coastal Areas
Florida w/17 feet rise
Consistent with West sheet collapse
Florida w/170 feet rise
Consistent with East sheet collapse
Source: http://www.bio.psu.edu/greendestiny/publications/gdc-kyoto_primer.pdf
29
New York City in 2100
Source: www.net.org
30
Future CO2 emissions
Source: www.pnl.gov
31
Gasoline Price Components
Source: EIA
Based on crude oil at 69.13$/barrel
32
Ohio gasoline Prices
Ohio Gasoline Prices
3
2.5
2
$/gallon 1.5
1
0.5
0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Fiscal Year
Based on data: ODOT, Financial and Statistical Report Fiscal Year 2005
33
Ohio Natural Gas Prices
Average Price of Utility Gas, OH
1.600
1.400
1.200
1.000
Price of Piped
0.800
Utility Gas/Therm
0.600
0.400
0.200
0.000
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006 (until
April)
Year
Based on data from: US Department of Labor, Bureau of labor Statistics.
34
Annual Heating Bills in
Ohio
35
Ohio Electricity Prices
Ohio Electricity Profile
25
cents/kWh
20
Residential
15
Commercial
10
Industrial
5
0
1993-2004
Source: EIA
36
Ohio Electricity Generation
By Source, 2004
Nuclear
Other
Hydroelectric
10.8
Renewables
0.5
Natural Gas
0.3
0.9
Petroleum
0.9
Other Gases
0.2
Coal
86.4
Source: EIA
37
Ohio CO2 Emissions
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector,
Ohio, 2004
Industry
1%
Energy - Other
7%
Energy-Residential
7%
Energy Com m ercial
4%
Energy - Industrial
20%
Energy - Utility
41%
Energy - Transport
20%
Based on data from: Ohio Greenhouse Gas emissions and Sinks Inventory
38
2001 State CO2 Emissions
Million metric tons
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
TX CA PA OH FL
IN
IL NY
Source: EIA
39
Ohio Particulate NonAttainment Areas
Source: NOACA, May 20, 2005. Nonattainment Factsheet.
40
Ohio Ozone Non-Attainment
Areas
Source: NOACA, May 20, 2005. Nonattainment Factsheet.
41
Ohio Health Care
Expenditures
Health care expenditures per capita
$4,500
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
US
PA
OH
MI
IL
NY
CA
TX
Based on data from: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, December 2005.
42
States with Renewable
Portfolio Standards
States that do not have
RPS or renewable energy
goal policies
States that have an RPS
States that have voluntary
renewable energy goals or
RPS-type legislation
without enforcement
provisions
Source: REEP, RPS.
43
Advanced Energy
•
Stationary
•
•
•
•
Transport
•
•
Central powerplants
(coal, gas, nuclear)
Power grid
Natural gas
heating/distribution
Inefficient end-uses
Oil E&P and
refining
Gasoline
automobiles
Diesel trucks
Conventional
energy
•
•
•
Efficient appliances,
motors, lighting
Geothermal heat
pumps
Solar thermal
Superconductivity
•
•
•
•
•
Wind
Solar PV
Coal gasification
Biopower
Fuel cells
•
•
•
•
•
Plug-in hybrids
Advanced diesels
Composites
Hydrogen
Fuel cells
•
•
•
Biofuels
Gas/coal to liquids
Unconventional
hydrocarbons
•
Demand-reducing
Supply-increasing
Advanced energy
44
Advanced Energy System
Source: John R. Wilson, TMG/ENERGY, Detroit.
45
Recap:
Energy Issues
• Customers spending much more
on energy, with potential for
even further increases:
– Increasing concerns about future
oil supplies, putting upward
pressure on gasoline prices
– Heating bills on the rise because of
higher natural gas prices
– Electricity price increases likely
when rate caps end after 2008
• Increasingly challenging
environmental issues because of
energy consumption:
– Ozone non-attainment, driven
mainly by motor vehicles  poor
local air quality
– Global climate change as a result
of all fossil fuel combustion
(especially coal)
• “Conventional”
energy paradigm –
multi-trillion dollar
global industry –
unlikely to continue
to be adequate
• “Advanced” energy
industry will need to
be built to meet
growing global
energy demands
46
Regional Advanced Energy
Strategy
Results
REGIONAL ADVANCED ENERGY STRATEGY
•
1. Develop and implement
advanced energy supply and
consumption plan for region
•
Coherence,
consistency
and linkages
•
2. Cultivate and achieve local
excellence in supplying advanced
energy to world markets
•
•
Reduced customer
expenditures on energy,
without harming customer
“experience” associated with
energy consumption
Improved local air quality, and
reduced contributions to
global climate change
Increased economic activity:
jobs, tax base, wealth creation
Technological leadership and
culture of innovation
Improved public pride and
civic reputation
47
Advanced Energy in Ohio
•
Fuel cells: recognized as a leader in fuel cell technology development (Ohio
Fuel Cell Coalition, Wright Fuel Cell Group)
•
Wind: decent wind resource, several developers evaluating sites/projects, good
industrial/supply chain base to attract manufacturers
•
Bioenergy: large agricultural base, considerable ethanol and biodiesel fuel
opportunities
•
Solar: leader in thin-film technologies (University of Toledo, First Solar)
•
Clean coal: FutureGen project proposal, AEP’s IGCC plant under
development, coal gasification project exploration (Energy Industries of Ohio
•
Coal-to-liquids: proposal for demonstration project at Wright-Patterson
•
Energy efficiency: increasing “green building” efforts, cogeneration and steam
loop potential in cities
48
Manufacturing Potential in
Ohio
Source: REEP
49
Consensus Building
• Face-to-face discussions
• Deliberations
• Inclusion of multiple sectors
• Flexibility of the process
Through “working groups”
50
Cooperation with no one
in control
• Individual Agendas
• No silver bullet
• Political will
• Old habits
51
Summary
• Locally and globally, energy
challenges mandate building an
advanced energy industry
• Within our region, there is
increasing support for building an
advanced energy industry cluster
• Opportunities exist for advanced
energy in North East Ohio
52