Transcript An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on

An integrated assessment of the
impacts of climate change on
Washington State
Marketa McGuire Elsner
University of Washington
JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
In cooperation with:
Jeremy S. Littell, Edward L. Miles, Dennis P.
Lettenmaier
March 5, 2008
Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop 2008
Climate science in
the public interest
Outline
• Background of WA State climate impacts
assessment
• Project framework (sneak preview of
results)
• Project objectives
• Relationship between impacts assessment
another state climate change initiative
Washington State Climate Impacts
Assessment
Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303
Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website:
http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx
HB 1303 Background
• Legislation signed by Washington Governor in
Spring 2007
• Bill’s goal is to reduce the state’s dependence on
fossil fuels and to build a clean energy economy
via:
– Policies and incentive programs to help businesses,
consumers, and farmers have access to cleaner fuels
– Impacts analysis and emission accounting procedures
that prepare Washington to respond and prosper as
climate changes
Human Health
Infrastructure
Agriculture/Economics
Coasts
Water Resources
A comprehensive state
climate change
assessment that
includes the impacts of
global warming
Forest Resources
Energy
Salmon
Adaptation
/ Legal
Barriers
Project Domain
Conceptual Approach to Assessment
• Integrated assessment of
regional climate
impacts:
• The study of how
climate, natural
resources, and human
socioeconomic systems
affect each other
Source: Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural and Social Science for Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific
Northwest. Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.
Goals of the Impacts Assessment
• Evaluate impacts of climate change into the next
century
– use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios
– show regional impacts and areas of high and low
sensitivity to climate change
– characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts
(e.g., legal, institutional) with help from UW Law
School
– provide tools for policy makers and user groups
– collaborate with Governor’s Climate Change
Challenge team
To be completed December 2008
Data Needs to Support a 21st Century
Planning Framework Incorporating Climate
Information and Uncertainty
Approach provides
2 Emissions
Scenarios X
20 GCMs
2
X Downscaling
Approaches
IPCC Climate Scenarios
ensemble of variables
that can be used to
evaluate impacts of
climate change
• Precipitation
• Air Temperature
• Streamflow
Hydrology Modeling
• Soil Moisture
• PET
• VPD
• And more!
Projected Increases in PNW Temperature
14.4°F
+5.9ºF
(2.8-9.7ºF)
+3.5ºF
7.2°F
(1.6-5.2ºF)
°C
10.8°F
+2.2ºF
(1.1-3.4ºF)
3.6°F
0°F
Changes relative to 1970-1999
Projected Increases in PNW Precipitation
Sector Focus Points
• Hydrology/Water Resources
– Impacts to rivers and response of state’s
physical water management infrastructure
– Produce future hydrologic scenarios at
over 200 locations in the Pacific Northwest
(related project)
• Energy
– Impacts to hydropower production
(Columbia River) and regional heating &
cooling degree days
• Salmon
– Productivity of State’s streams for
salmonids
– Regions and conditions under which
salmonid habitat is most vulnerable
Sector Focus Points
• Agriculture/Economics
– Impacts on productivity and
sustainability of State’s agriculture,
focusing on key crops (tree fruits,
grapes, potatoes)
• Forests
– Impacts to growth and productivity
of forests and their susceptibility to
fire and insect disturbance
• Coasts
– Impacts of sea level rise on structures
(inundation and flooding)
– Changes in erosion on bluffs, spits,
ocean beaches
Sector Focus Points
• Infrastructure
– Impacts on vulnerable elements
of civil infrastructure (stormwater
systems)
– Consider precipitation variability
and flood frequency/magnitude
• Health
– Impacts of ozone and particulate
matter on childhood asthma
– Heat stress and potential
increases in mortality
Relationship between
Impacts Assessment and
Washington State Climate
Initiative
• Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce
CO2 emissions
• Make recommendations on improved
preparedness and adaptation
Draft recommendations
Final report
Complete
February 2008
Relationship between
PAWGs and HB1303 Sectors
Highlights
• Washington State supports climate change
study and linkages between science and
decision-making.
• Integrated assessment approach which
connects climate predictions to hydrology
and other impact sectors.
More information on the Climate Impacts
Group or WA State Climate Impacts
Assessment
The Climate Impacts Group
www.cses.washington.ed/cig
Marketa McGuire Elsner
[email protected]
Climate science in
the public interest