Transcript SNAP Climate Models: Tools for Planners

The Scenarios Network for Alaska and
Arctic Planning is a collaborative
network of the University of Alaska,
state, federal, and local agencies,
NGOs, and industry partners.
Its mission is to provide timely access to
scenarios of future conditions in
Alaska and the Arctic for more
effective planning by decisionmakers, communities, and industry.
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There is now clear scientific evidence that
our planet is warming
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How this will affect climate systems
around the globe is an enormously
complex question
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Uncertainty and variability are inevitable
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Climate change presents significant risks
to natural and cultural resources
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Understanding how to address
uncertainty is an important part of
climate change planning
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Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
 Complex coupled models created by national
and international labs
 Interactions of oceans, atmosphere, and
radiation balance
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Calculated which 5 of 15 models were most
accurate in the far north
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A1B, B1 and A2 emissions scenarios
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Temperature and precipitation projections by month to
2100
Historical data
 Weather station data
 Interpolated and gridded
 CRU data 1901-2008
GCM output (ECHAM5)
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Baseline values = PRISM
mean monthly precipitation
and temperature, 800m,
1971-2000
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Adjusted and interpolated
GCM outputs to historical
baseline
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Effectively removed model
biases while scaling down the
GCM projections
2.5 x 2.5 degrees
Frankenberg et al., Science, Sept. 11, 2009
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Inputs to GCMs
 Solar radiation is essentially a known quantity
 Levels of greenhouse gases are uncertain, but accounted for by
varying emissions scenarios
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GCM algorithms
 Oceanic and atmospheric circulation are hard to predict and model
 May include thresholds (tipping points) such as ocean currents
shifting
 Don’t fully account for short-term phenomena such as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
The PDO causes
significant climate shifts
on a decadal scale
1.
Projections of future
conditions that are linked to
present and past conditions
2.
Detailed explanations of the
rules, models, and
assumptions underlying the
projections
3.
Objective interpretations of
scenarios based on these
projections
www.snap.uaf.edu
Soil temperature at
1-meter depth:
1980s, 2040s, and 2080s
Torre Jorgenson
Torre Jorgensen
(Geophysical Institute
Permafrost Lab, UAF)
Empirical
.
Simulated
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alaskarenewableenergy.org
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www.nenananewslink.com
Change is happening, and will
continue for decades
regardless of mitigation
efforts.
Key tipping points may be
crossed, e.g fire, permafrost,
sea ice, biome shift, glacial
loss.
High uncertainty results in
divergent possible futures for
many important variables.
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Forecast Planning
 One Future
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+10%
What we know today
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
Scenario Planning
 Multiple Futures
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Uncertainties
What we know today
Copyright 2010 Monitor Company Group
http://mareeconway.co
m/blog
Everyday choices are based on scenarios
Examining scenarios
 What are possible outcomes?
 What is the likelihood of each
outcome?
 How much do we want to avoid the
bad outcomes?
 How desirable are the good
outcomes?
 How do we balance time and costs
against risks?
Bet the
Farm
Core
Core
Hedge
Hedge
Your
Your
Bets
Bets
Hedge
Hedge
Your
Your
Bets
Bets
Robust
Satellite
Satellite
Hedge
Hedge
Your
Your
Bets
Bets
Hedge
Hedge
Your
Your
Bets
Bets
Satellite
Satellite
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Collaboration rather than top-down
information transfer
What are the most pressing questions?
 Differ from region to region
 Depend on needs on stakeholder
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What questions can SNAP help address?
 What data are and are NOT available?
 How much time/funding is available?
 Role of uncertainty
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Desired products
 Maps, reports, presentations, websites, etc.
Broad-scale
Regional
Local
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Length of above-freezing season and
GDD by cluster. Days above freezing were
estimated via linear interpolation between
monthly mean temperatures. Growing
degree days (GDD) were calculated using
0°C as a baseline.
3000
210
2500
170
2000
150
1500
130
110
1000
90
Growing degree days
Days
above
freezing
Growing
Degree
Days
500
1200
70
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
cluster
Warm-season and cold-season
precipitation by cluster. The majority
of precipitation in months with mean
temperatures below freezing is assumed
to be snow (measured as rainwater
equivalent).
Total precipitation, mm (rainwater equivalent)
Days above freezing
190
1000
total for months
with mean
temperature
below freezing
800
600
400
total for months
with mean
temperature
above freezing
200
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Clusters
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Created 2/4/11 3:00 PM by
Conservation Biology Institute
http://land cover.usgs.gov/nalcms.php
GlobCover
2009
North American
Land Change
Monitoring System
(NALCMS 2005)
Alaska Biomes
and Canadian
Ecoregions.
AVHRR Land
cover, 1995
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Future
Projections
Original 18 clusters
Projected cliomes for the
five-model composite, A1B
(mid-range ) climate
scenario.
Alaska and the Yukon are
shown at 2km resolution and
NWT at 10 minute lat/long
resolution .
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Changing climatic conditions
are rapidly impacting
environmental, social, and
economic conditions in and
around National Park System
areas in Alaska.
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Alaska park managers need to
better understand possible
climate change trends in order
to better manage Arctic,
subarctic, and coastal
ecosystems and human uses.
 NPS and SNAP are collaborating on a three-year project that will help Alaska
NPS managers, cooperating personnel, and key stakeholders to develop
plausible climate change scenarios for all NPS areas in Alaska.
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Lake Clark
Aniakchak
Kenai Fjords
Aleutian WWII not included in assessment
Katmai
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Mean winter precipitation. These maps show the
projected precipitation for December, January,
and February for selected decades. Although
increased precipitation is expected, warmer
temperatures may result in less snow.
Mean annual ground temperature at one meter
depth. Based on SNAP climate data and GIPL
permafrost modeling, these maps depict likely
ground temperature conditions. Widespread loss of
frozen ground is likely by the end of the century.
More, with warming
PDO
“Juneau/Helly
Hansen”
”Smokey”
A
Thaw
Days
B
Less Variation
High variation
Precipitation
“Freeze-Dried”
”Little Ice Age”
C
D
Less, with cold
phase PDO
Matrix showing
the intersection of
changes thaw days
(summer season)
and precipitation,
as each pertains to
inland (riverine)
regions. Each
quadrant yields a set
of future conditions
which are plausible,
challenging,
relevant, and
divergent.
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“SMOKEY”
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Drought stressed vegetation
Increase in disease/pests
Longer growing season
Maximum shrub expansion (less
overland access)
Long-term reduction stream flow
Initially higher stream flows from
seasonal glacial melt
Reduction/loss glaciers
Increased fire on landscape
40% reduction in salmon fry due
to smaller fry.
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Katmai Brooks Camp barge requires
glacier melt for high lake levels…this
world would minimize access with
warming and less precipitation.
Less biting insects
Decrease in waterfowl
Exposure of cultural resources
Lowering of groundwater tables.
More fugitive dust with Pebble Mine
Decrease in stream flow
Increase competition in water.
Decrease in subsistence (difficult
winter travel)
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Matrix showing
Riverine climate
scenarios nested
in a social and
institutional
framework. Each
quadrant yields four
linked scenarios;
three are selected in
red.
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Facilities
Infrastructure risks, fire protection
costs
Melting permafrost, damage to
infrastructure (buildings)
Interpretation and Education
Maintaining relevant agency inreach efforts
Public/visitor education costs and
challenges
Greater need for public
application of ecosystem services
Protection
Fire management, public safety
risks
F&W regulations, harvest quotas,
seasons
Physical Resources
Hydrological cycle changes
Reduction in available water
Reduction in available water
Biological Resources
Major biome shift
Increase in fire, increase in
pests/disease
Pond Conversion to uplands
ESA Issues Species management
concerns
Cultural Resources
Exposure of artifacts
Socio/Economic
Conservation of F&W for subsistence &
recreation
Access and transportation issues
Name
Species Hair/Fur
Age
Appetite
Level
Size
Preliminary
Porridge
Assessment
Preliminary
Mattress
Assessment
Goldilocks
Human
Blonde
8
Moderate
Petite
N/A
N/A
Papa
Bear
Brown
12
High
Big
Too Hot
Too Hard
Mama
Bear
Tawny
11
Too Cold
Too Soft
Baby
Bear
RedBrown
3
Just Right
Just Right
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
Moderate Medium
Low
Small
Copyright 2010 Monitor Company Group
Data, research and monitoring
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Create seamless data sets
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Collaborate with researchers and
monitoring programs to track
changes in PDO and ocean
acidification
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Increase fluidity and connections
between research and monitoring
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Conduct coastal/marine/onshore
ecosystem monitoring
Collaboration and outreach
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Coordinate communication with other
agencies
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Get missing players to the climate change
scenario table at subsequent meetings
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Provide science outreach and education to
multiple audiences
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Identify and cooperate with private/public
entities for partnerships
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Re-imagine how institutions can work
together to solve common problems.
Flexibility and innovation
 Tune planning process to account
for multiple possibilities
 Model, collaborate and promote
energy efficient technologies
 Create portable, flexible structures
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Interviews
Growing Degree Day Analysis
Ellen Hatch (Thesis project, SNRAS)
Photo by Nancy Tarnai
All SNAP data and
outputs are available
under a Creative
Commons license.
Currently, 24 ongoing and
completed projects are
linked on the SNAP
website, in addition to
reports, videos,
presentations, and
papers.
www.snap.uaf.edu