Transcript Climate Change Impacts in Southcentral Alaskax

Broad-scale
Regional
Local
230
Length of above-freezing season and
GDD by cluster. Days above freezing were
estimated via linear interpolation between
monthly mean temperatures. Growing
degree days (GDD) were calculated using
0°C as a baseline.
3000
210
2500
170
2000
150
1500
130
110
1000
90
Growing degree days
Days
above
freezing
Growing
Degree
Days
500
1200
70
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
cluster
Warm-season and cold-season
precipitation by cluster. The majority
of precipitation in months with mean
temperatures below freezing is assumed
to be snow (measured as rainwater
equivalent).
Total precipitation, mm (rainwater equivalent)
Days above freezing
190
1000
total for months
with mean
temperature
below freezing
800
600
400
total for months
with mean
temperature
above freezing
200
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Clusters
4
Created 2/4/11 3:00 PM by
Conservation Biology Institute
http://land cover.usgs.gov/nalcms.php
GlobCover
2009
North American
Land Change
Monitoring System
(NALCMS 2005)
Alaska Biomes
and Canadian
Ecoregions.
AVHRR Land
cover, 1995
5
Future
Projections
Original 18 clusters
Projected cliomes for the
five-model composite, A1B
(mid-range ) climate
scenario.
Alaska and the Yukon are
shown at 2km resolution and
NWT at 10 minute lat/long
resolution .
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2000’s
2030’s
2060’s
2090’s

Changing climatic conditions
are rapidly impacting
environmental, social, and
economic conditions in and
around National Park System
areas in Alaska.

Alaska park managers need to
better understand possible
climate change trends in order
to better manage Arctic,
subarctic, and coastal
ecosystems and human uses.
 NPS and SNAP are collaborating on a three-year project that will help Alaska
NPS managers, cooperating personnel, and key stakeholders to develop
plausible climate change scenarios for all NPS areas in Alaska.
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Lake Clark
Aniakchak
Kenai Fjords
Aleutian WWII not included in assessment
Katmai
9
Mean winter precipitation. These maps show the
projected precipitation for December, January, and
February for selected decades. Although increased
precipitation is expected, warmer temperatures may
result in less snow.
Mean annual ground temperature at one meter depth.
Based on SNAP climate data and GIPL permafrost
modeling, these maps depict likely ground temperature
conditions. Widespread loss of frozen ground is likely by
the end of the century.
More, with warming
PDO
“Juneau/Helly
Hansen”
”Smokey”
A
Thaw
Days
B
Less Variation
High variation
Precipitation
“Freeze-Dried”
”Little Ice Age”
C
D
Less, with cold
phase PDO
Matrix showing
the intersection of
changes thaw days
(summer season)
and precipitation,
as each pertains to
inland (riverine)
regions. Each
quadrant yields a set
of future conditions
which are plausible,
challenging,
relevant, and
divergent.
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“SMOKEY”
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Drought stressed vegetation
Increase in disease/pests
Longer growing season
Maximum shrub expansion (less
overland access)
Long-term reduction stream flow
Initially higher stream flows from
seasonal glacial melt
Reduction/loss glaciers
Increased fire on landscape
40% reduction in salmon fry due
to smaller fry.
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Katmai Brooks Camp barge requires
glacier melt for high lake levels…this
world would minimize access with
warming and less precipitation.
Less biting insects
Decrease in waterfowl
Exposure of cultural resources
Lowering of groundwater tables.
More fugitive dust with Pebble Mine
Decrease in stream flow
Increase competition in water.
Decrease in subsistence (difficult
winter travel)
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Matrix showing
Riverine climate
scenarios nested
in a social and
institutional
framework. Each
quadrant yields four
linked scenarios;
three are selected in
red.
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Facilities
Infrastructure risks, fire protection
costs
Melting permafrost, damage to
infrastructure (buildings)
Interpretation and Education
Maintaining relevant agency inreach efforts
Public/visitor education costs and
challenges
Greater need for public application
of ecosystem services
Protection
Fire management, public safety risks
F&W regulations, harvest quotas,
seasons
Physical Resources
Hydrological cycle changes
Reduction in available water
Reduction in available water
Biological Resources
Major biome shift
Increase in fire, increase in pests/disease
Pond Conversion to uplands
ESA Issues Species management concerns
Cultural Resources
Exposure of artifacts
Socio/Economic
Conservation of F&W for subsistence &
recreation
Access and transportation issues
Name
Species Hair/Fur
Age
Appetite
Level
Size
Preliminary
Porridge
Assessment
Preliminary
Mattress
Assessment
Goldilocks
Human
Blonde
8
Moderate
Petite
N/A
N/A
Papa
Bear
Brown
12
High
Big
Too Hot
Too Hard
Mama
Bear
Tawny
11
Too Cold
Too Soft
Baby
Bear
RedBrown
3
Just Right
Just Right
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
Moderate Medium
Low
Small
Copyright 2010 Monitor Company Group
Data, research and monitoring

Create seamless data sets

Collaborate with researchers and
monitoring programs to track
changes in PDO and ocean
acidification

Increase fluidity and connections
between research and monitoring

Conduct coastal/marine/onshore
ecosystem monitoring
Collaboration and outreach

Coordinate communication with other
agencies

Get missing players to the climate change
scenario table at subsequent meetings

Provide science outreach and education to
multiple audiences

Identify and cooperate with private/public
entities for partnerships

Re-imagine how institutions can work
together to solve common problems.
Flexibility and innovation
 Tune planning process to account
for multiple possibilities
 Model, collaborate and promote
energy efficient technologies
 Create portable, flexible structures
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Interviews
Growing Degree Day Analysis
Ellen Hatch (Thesis project, SNRAS)
Photo by Nancy Tarnai
Questions?