Transcript Part Three

CLIMATE CHANGE
Past and future impacts on the
landscape and drainage of the
Yorkshire Dales (Part 3)
Dr Aidan Foley
Climate Change ~ 10,000 years
(Holocene)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/data.html
Radiative forcings
1750-1990
Climate Change ~ 2000 years
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html
Climate Change ~ 1000 years
with forcings
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I: The Physical Science
Basis of Climate Change, Chapter 6, Palaeoclimate, Figure 6.14.
Instrumental
temperature record
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/
IPCC, 2007
25 year temperature record
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
Global temperature trends
Global & continental temperature
change
Other issues:
River water temperature
Gosling, R (2011) The impact of climate change on water
temperature and ecological health in Scottish rivers.
Scottish Environment Protection Agency
Climate change in Europe
“Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to
increase more than the global mean.”
“Annual precipitation is very likely to increase in
most of northern Europe.”
“Extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase
in northern Europe.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
4th Assessment Report (2007). pg. 872
Projected warming
Precipitation trends
Modelled estimates of UK monthly
precipitation changes
Maps of central estimates of
monthly precipitation changes
(in percent) derived from the
sampled UKCP09 probabilistic
changes over river-basin
regions
Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424–
425 (2012) 48–67
Modelled estimates of UK monthly
potential evapotranspiration changes
Maps of central estimates of
monthly potential
evapotranspiration changes (in
percent) derived from the
sampled UKCP09 probabilistic
changes over river-basin
regions
Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424–
425 (2012) 48–67
Predicted changes in PPT & PET
for the River Ribble at Arnford
Christierson et
al. / Journal of
Hydrology
424–425
(2012) 48–67
Annual cycle of changes in precipitation (top row) and PET (bottom row) for the Ribble@Arnford. Left: 20-member sampled subset of UKCP09 changes;
middle:changes from the six individual UKWIR06 projections; right: changes from the 11-member ensemble of bias-corrected regional projections.
Climate &
River Flows
Forecast changes in flow
of the River Ribble at
Arnford on the basis of
three UK climate
scenarios
B.v. Christierson et al. / Journal of
Hydrology 424–425 (2012) 48–67
Factors influencing river
temperature
Riparian shading
Fish live in trees!
- Trees and large woody debris
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Shelter from high velocity flows
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Feeding sites (provision of habitat for lower organisms)
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Spawning sites (up to 50% of all sites)
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Nursery sites
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Territorial markers
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Refuge from predators
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Reduction in sediment inputs from overland flow
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Increase bank stability
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Reduce eutrophication (cut out sunlight)
Habitat Types, Cam Beck.
Unit Length
Average Wet width
Average Active Channel Width
Average Depth
Maximum/Mean Depth
Percentage Riparian Shade on
Left and Right Bank individually
Percentage of wetted area with
‘cover’ for juvenile fish
Percentage composition of
substrate
Extremely Simple Management Solutions #1
TREES!
The role of groundwater
Baseflow
Role of groundwater in mitigating
climate change
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More variable river discharge and soil moisture
The former exacerbates intra-annual freshwater shortages and the risk of
flooding whereas the latter threatens food security through reduced crop
yields
Projected changes in the spatial distribution of mean rainfall are substantial
but remain highly uncertain for most of the world
Strategies to adapt to more variable freshwater resources will, in many
environments, increase dependence upon groundwater
Few climate impact models explicitly consider, however, how climate
variability and change affect groundwater recharge and the sustainable
development of groundwater despite its central role in enabling adaptation
in domestic and agricultural water sectors
International Association of Hydrogeologists
Acknowledgements &
References
Caves & Karst of the Yorkshire Dales (Tony Waltham & David Lowe)
Climate History and the Modern World (H.H. Lamb)
The Geomorphology of the British Isles – Northern England
(Cuchlaine M. King)
Glacial & Periglacial Geomorphology (Clifford Embleton &
Cuchlaine M. King)
North West Geodiversity Partnership
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change