Transcript CGE Hands on training Workshop on Vulnerability and

Secretariat of State of Environment and Natural
Resources
Under Secretariat of Environment Management
National Office of Climate Change
CGE Hands on training
Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessments for Latin America and the Caribbean
Region
Asuncion, Paraguay
14-18 August 2006
Experience of the Dominican Republic
In Assessing the Impact of Climate Change in the
Water Sector.
Juan Mancebo
Climate change coordinator
17° 36’ – 19° 58’ latitud Norte
68° 19’ – 72° 01’ longitud Oeste
8.562.541 habitantes
INTRODUCTION
 The Vulnerability of the Caribbean
Countries to the effect of the Climate
Changes had been appreciated for all of
us for differed way:
 The incidence of hurricane each time
with more intensity
 Large period of draught
 Currently flows
 Or one beach that disappear
Raining season of the Dominican Republic
• Frontal season (November – April),
• Convective season (May – July)
• Cyclonic season (August – October);
• The spatial distribution result in a rain
system very complex according to the
geography relief
Monthly distribution of the rainfall.
Base Line 1961 - 1990
Spatial distribution of the lamina of rainfall in the base line .
The annual rainfall and the middle infiltration for
time series 1961 - 1990
2000
600
1800
550
1600
1400
Ll
500
450
400 Q
1200
1000
800
350
300
250
600
200
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989
Ll (mm)
Q (mm)
Temporal annual Series of the lamina of rainfall for the period 1961-1990.
Climate Scenery
For the future climate change we used the General
Circulation Model that permit the consideration of
more uncertainties, (MAGIC/ SCENGEN)
The temporal Horizon was of fourth period: 2010,
2030, 2050, 2100 and as Emission Scenery:
• IS92c, with climate sensibility low (T=1.5ºC)
• IS92a, ) with climate sensibility middle (T=2.5ºC)
• IS92f. With climate sensibility high (T=4.5ºC).
Year
Temperature ºC
Rainfall mm
2010
2030
2050
2100
26.2
26.9
27.7
29.6
1277.0
1137.0
976.0
543.0
Temperature and rainfall value for the year 2100. Model HADCM2, and
emission scenery IS92f
VULNERABILITY & IMPACT
HYDROLOGY SECTOR
Subdivision of watersheds and hydrological areas of the Dominican Republic (according to OAS, 1967).
General hydrological data
The annual rainfall for the country averaged 1,500 mm
distributed in approximately 110 days, with spatial variations
from 2,700 mm in some areas of the Northeast to 450 mm in
the Neiba Valley.
The rains produce an annual volume of 73 thousand millions
of m3
51 thousand millions of m3 are lost by evaporation and
transpiration.
The remaining 22 thousand millions of m3 refill the rivers,
streams and lagoons and infiltrates into the underground
Hydrological balance in
Dominican Republic
(values in thousands of
millions m3
B
Rainfall (73)
Evaporation and
transpiration (51)
The average final available volume averages yearly of 15 to
20 thousand millions of m3 available for different uses.
The potential of underground water has been estimated
annually in 1,500 to 1,600 millions of m3
Historically the exploitation of the water resource has
centered more in the superficial waters due to its abundance.
The total demand of water is from 8,000 to 9,000 millions of
m3/año.
Superficial water (15-20)
Underground water (1-2)
OBJECTIVE OF THE EVALUATION OF V&A
-To establish a hydrology base line for the Dominican
Republic
-To establish hydrology scenarios
-To make recommendations for adaptation measurement
-The global hydrology balance for the country was made for
the yeas 2010; 2030; 2050; 2100
-For the underground water the rate of the sea level was
taking into consideration using the climate models
-The deterioration of the hydrological reservation of
underground water was only made for year 2100
 The global Hydrological balances for the
country select regions ware made for the
years 2010, 2030, 2050, 2100.
 For the undergrowth water we take into
consideration the increase of the sea level
that was obtained with the climate models
used.
 The deterioration of the undergrowth
hydrology reserve only take into
consideration the year 2100 for the best
appreciation of the climate change impact,
for be it a slowing and complex process.
Methodology use for the Evaluation of Impact
for the rain variable calculation and the
evaporation and transpiration
• Expert juice
• Statistical
1. Thornthwaite
2. Turc I, II
3. Perman,
4. Total flow
5. Marine saline trespass
(that use the model Ghyben Herzberg)
Hydrology balance for the sceneries of
Climate Change
 CSRT (emission scenery IS92c)
 ECH4 (emission scenery IS92a)
 HADM2 (emission scenery IS92f).
Estimate hydrology balance for climate scenery for
model HADCM2, with emission scenery IS92f
Year
P
T °C
Ep
Er
Q
W
2010
1277
25.0
1706
1022
255
12334
2030
1137
25.7
1791
960
177
8570
2050
976
26.5
1889
867
109
5287
2100
543
28.6
2186
526
17
806
Unit mm, W=million M3, temp inc. 4.2 °C
The Model HADCM2 show the scenery more drastic
for water supply if we don’t reduce significantly the
green house gases emission.
In this climate scenery:
a) Temperature increase 4.2 0C
b) The rainfall decrease approximately 60% for the next 100
years.
C) The volume of draining will be reduce in a 95% for the year
2100.
The critic situation described with the model had a great
coincidence with results obtained by meteorology Office of
united Kingdom in 1998, when pointed that the East
Caribbean will be the more dry zone in each scenery and
model use
.
Evaluation of water supply for development
-Index of water Availability (IWA)
-Index of scarcity of water
Classification of the availability of water
IWA
Less than 1
1.1 - 2.0
2.1 - 5.0
5.1 - 10.0
10.1 - 20.0
More than 20
Category
1
Catastrophic low
So low
Low
Moderate
High
Very high
Evolution of the IWA according with
the tree sceneries
-The actual exploitation of water resources
is about 3,000 millions of M3
-Using the model (CSRT) for the scenery
more favorable in the year 2030 the IWA
will be below the critical level about 1,000
millions of M3.
Measurement of adaptation
for the hydrology sector
-Build new dam and improvement of the
existent capacity
--Increase of the efficiency of water
management and protect this resources
from contamination
-Give a special importance to underground
water for the fragility of this resources
To increase the hydraulics infrastructure
Measurement of adaptation for the
hydrology sector
-Build new dam and improvement of the
existent capacity
--Increase of the efficiency of water
management and protect this resources
from contamination
-Give a special importance to underground
water for the fragility of this resources
To increase the hydraulics infrastructure
Thank for you attention