Transcript Climate Change, Early Warning, Advisory Services and Related

CLIMATE CHANGE, EARLY WARNING, ADVISORY
SERVICES AND RELATED INITIATIVES
PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE PRESENTATION BY:
MR. MNIKELI NDABAMBI,
GENERAL MANAGER: OPERATIONS
Click to edit Master subtitle style
FOR
DR. LINDA MAKULENI,
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER,
SAWS
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CONTENTS
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Purpose of the presentation
Related Strategic Drivers and program
Forecasting
Early Warning
Advisory Services
Climate Change related initiatives
Conclusion
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PURPOSE OF PRESENTATION
To brief the Portfolio Committee Members on SAWS’
programmes on Climate Change.
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NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE-WHITE PAPER
In addressing NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE,
WHITE PAPER-CHAPTER 4, identified the following as
among Strategic Priorities:Risk reduction and management
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Informed decision-making and planning
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Then CHAPTER 5 addresses adaptation where
Early Warning and Forecasting for Disaster Risk
Reduction are to be addressed.
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SAWS STRATEGIC DRIVERS AND PROGRAMS RELATED TO EARLY
WARNINGS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Safety of life and property
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Operational early warning system that encourages an integrated approach
Provision of scientific information for adaptation and mitigation to climate change
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Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability on food
sustainability, rural development and quality of life of South Africans.
SAWS will build on its experience on Air Quality & the Global Atmosphere
Watch, to play a crucial role.
SAWS has also established seven Strategic Programmes the first being:
Climate Change and Variability Programme
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Addressing and/or supporting national climate change adaptation and
mitigation initiatives;
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FORECASTING
SAWS offers Weather forecasts to different stakeholders
on daily basis to inform the decision making•
Forecasting issued can be categorised into:
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Nowcasting
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Short and Medium Range
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Long Range Forecasting
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Nowcasting (0-14
hours)
1. Nowcasting
(0-14
hours)
SAWS offers weather forecasts and advices on weather phenomena that
occurs on time scales from 0-24 hours e.g. severe thunderstorms, hail,
lightning , tornadoes etc. for safety of life and reduced damage to property..
•Utilize remote sensing infrastructure :
a) Weather Radar
b) Satellite
c) Lightning Detection Network
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Short and Medium Range (1 – 3 days) + (4 – 10 days)
Also utilizing different models in an ensemble system to obtain forecasts on the short
and medium term.
Focus on temperature and rainfall forecasts .
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Long Range Forecast ( 11 days - 6 months)
SAWS also offers weather forecasts on time scales varying as follows:
a) 11 – 30 days (Extended range)
b) 1 – 3 months (Seasonal)
c) Longer time scales – (Annual, Decadal, Climate- in development phase)
Utilize Global Circulation Models (GCM), Ocean –Atmosphere-Land Coupled models.
Collaborate with partnering institutions e.g. CSIR
Forecast for 2012
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EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS)
The white paper points to a need to
Use early warning systems to give timely warnings
of adverse weather…..as part of adaptation to Climate
Change and variability impact,
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It also encourages investment in education and
awareness programmes
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EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS)
SWWS as an component of the MHEWS
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Enhancement of the Early Warning Service
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Based on international best practices
(WMO & international Weather Services as
benchmark)
Introduced 3 color-coded alert categories:
Advisory / Watch / Warning relating to
specific hazard thresholds and lead-times
Standardized content of message
Collaborate with NDMC to improve warning
dissemination
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Advisory:
Be aware
Watch:
Be prepared
Warning
Take action
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Increasing Urgency through Alert Levels
No Alert
No
hazardous
weather
expected in
next few
days
Advisory
Watch
Warning
Be Aware!
Be
Prepared!
Take
Action!
Early
warning of
potential
hazardous
weather
Weather
conditions
are likely to
deteriorate
to
hazardous
levels
Hazard is
already
occurring
somewhere
or is about
to occur
with a very
high
confidence
2 to 6 days
period
1 to 3 day
period
Next 24
hours,
3 hrs for
FF, TS
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Climate change and variability research
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Entails investigating the future patterns of change in Southern Africa's climate
(temperature, rainfall, storms, extreme events, etc) over the next decades up to
2100;
In collaboration with relevant stakeholders (e.g. other research institutions)
impacts on South Africa's climate-sensitive sectors are identified and possible
intervention measures recommended to relevant authorities.
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Climate change and variability research
SAWS is active on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Working Group 1 to investigate how the intensity and frequency of
climate extremes such as droughts , floods coastal storms are expected to
respond to climate change.
Future plans: Develop a climate change impact modeling capability to
support development of applications that will inform adaptation efforts and
strategies on bi-annual to decadal times scales.
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Air Quality Modelling and Forecasting
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SAWS is given a national role of
monitoring and forecasting air
quality
The air quality modelling and
forecasting group is developing the
capacity to produce forecasts of
national ambient air quality for a
period of 48-72 hours
Pollutants include; particulate matter
less than 10µm, sulphur dioxide and
tropospheric ozone
Initially use the UK Met Office
NAMEIII model, which is currently in
use in the UK
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Initiatives
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SAWS Embarked on road shows initiatives to raise severe weather
awareness among communities as part of adaptation strategy (As
reflected in the Climate Change white Paper).
Developed new warning systems i.e.
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South African Flash flood Guidance system(SAFFG),
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Southern Africa Regional Flash Flood Guidance system (SARFFG)
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Storm surge warning system,
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National Fire Danger Rating System, for veld and forest fire warnings
(with DAFF),
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Tsunami warning dissemination system (with NDMC and CGS)
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Community Rainfall Station
Expansion of SWFDP into SADC region
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Successes and Challenges
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SAWS managed to develop a sophisticated hazard monitoring system, comparing
very well with international best practices
Relationships between forecasters and disaster management structures are
developing very strongly – more so in some districts than others
Effective dissemination of warnings to all levels of society are still a problem and
need significant support and participation with other structures, including disaster
management, Government DEPTs, media and other role players
Public awareness around the EWS and response to warnings and hazards need
significant effort from all involved
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THANK YOU
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