Transcript ``Risks of oil storing and oil pipelines: the case of Bourgas

Confronting the Impact of
Climate Change:
Bulgaria's Experience
Petko Kovatchev
Green Policy Institute
Black Sea Conference
Athens, 23 – 24 February, 2009
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
1. Climate Policy of Bulgaria
2. Climate Change' related problems
3. Climate Change and it's impact on the poor:
– Floods, the poors and minorities;
– climate refugees;
– droughts, floods and agriculture;
4. Conclusions
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Policy of Bulgaria (1)
1. No comprehensive climate strategy; An inter-institutional
Commission on Climate Chande does exist
„Public debate on climate change organised by the government was
intended to stimulate opposition to the specific emissions reduction
targets imposed on Bulgaria by the EC. The arguments used by the
government were that Bulgaria is a poor country and should be
allowed to continue to rely on carbon-intensive technologies. The
government's position was to call for a longer period before Bulgarian
industry is compelled to meet European requirements.“
2. National plan for action against the climate change (2005
-2008) – it's over; no new plan at palce
3. Focus on Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development
Meichanism (CDM) Projects
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Policy of Bulgaria (2)
3.1. Seven protocols (incl. with Prototype Carbon Fund of WB);
3.2. Are the real projects – more than 20 – good or bad?
3.2.1. Lower Arda cascade rehabilitation
3.2.2. Windmils in Kaliakra (INOS), Tzankov Kamuk, Middle
Iskar cascade
4. Problems with the quota for 2008 -12 („New Warsaw pact
agaisnt the climate“)
5. New energy strategy – more emissions, more risks, less
Renewables, efficiency is neglectable
6. Transport sector – infrastructure, biofuels, Operational
Programme Transport
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Policy of Bulgaria (3)
Who Is Who?
Minsitry of Environment and Waters
Inter-institutional Commission on Climate Chande
Other Minsitries ans Agencies: MEE, MAF, EEA, etc.
National Institute on Hydorlogy and Meteorology – BAS
National Institute on Cosmis Research – BAS
National Coordination Center for Global Change – BAS
NGOs Climate Coalition
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Change related problems
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Floods (2004, 2005, 2007)
Fires and forest fires (1999, 2000, 2001, etc.)
Droughts and Agriculture imapcts: temperatures for
last 8-10 years are higher then ever in Bulgaria
+0,4 C (max) and + 0,6-0,8 C (min)
Errosion processes
Health problems – no collection of health related
data with linkage to climate change
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Change and Poors
Case 1: Floods, the Poors and Minorities
1. While lot more people were affected, the most vulnerable
communities are these of Roma minority.
a) living in suburbs, very close to rivers, in illegal homes, without proper
spatial planning;
b) no early warning and protection systems;
c) bad condition of water supply and sanitation, low quality of water
facilities management (if at all);
d) non-tolerant approach towards minorities during the period of
distribution of governmental aid after the floods;
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Change and Poors
Case 1: Floods, the Poors and Minorities
2. Cases: Ihtiman, Elin Pelin, Tzar Kaloyan (morethan 1000
people affected, 8 died), Pazardjik, etc. Only the 2005 floods
caused loses for more than 300 m. EUR for transport
(railroads, roads) and agriculture.
3. Compensations are in place, not always as much as needed,
but... more important – there is no tradition in insurances, in
civil education of protection against natural and industrial
cathastrophes. And on the top of it the governance and
management of emergency systems are subject of political
fights. NGOs add one more problem – bad and ourdated
water/river and forest policies.
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Change and Poors
Case 2: Climate Refugees
a) a new and emerging problem;
b) no definition for “climate refugee”; sub-category of
“environmental refugee“ (10 mln. people in 1988 worldwide
and growing);
c) potentially these are people from Middle East, SE Asia,
Africa – regions with heavy impact of floods, storms,
droughts;
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Change and Poors
Case 2: Climate Refugees
d) SEE and Black Sea region lay on the way to Europe – problem
needs preliminary assessment for potential impacts;
e) „Global Migrants for Climate Action“ (Oslo, Norway; local
branch in Sofia, Bulgaria) – educational programmes for
emigrants from ME to Bulgaria;
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Change and Poors
Case 3: Droughts and Agriculture
a) 650.000 individuals, only 11.000 aged 25-34!
b) Labour decrease in the sector (2007):
EU (average) – 2,2%
Bulgaria – 11%
c) EC expects that 1- 2 million workers (full-time equivalents) to
leave the sector in BG and RO by 2014
d) Input on economy – 9,3% gross added value (a drop of 8,6%
fro 2005 compared to 2004)
e) 78% (118.000) of agribusiness entities are with size less than 1
ESU
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Climate Change and Poors
Case 3: Droughts and Agriculture
f) In-country migration towards urban areas and emmigration
continues. Mostly for socio-economic reasons.
g) Bulgaria sufferes lack of workforce in the sector.
h) Climate Change might add to these negative processes. There
is an urgent need of political programmes and measures to
adapt the agribusiness and on better control on over-expanding
of urban areas.
i) Attraction of qualified labour and balanced intake of immigrants
may help the sector. It is a duty of the politicians on local,
regional and national level to boost the process of changes in
the sector's organisation and management.
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Conclusions
1. Cliamte change problems need a comprehensive national
policy, that would guide sectorial and regional strategies.
2. Climate change impacts on people and especially on poors
need better investigation and co-operation between institutions
ans non-governmental associations within a given country.
Exclusion and/or neglection of specific groups (e.g. minorities,
remote areas) may lead to unsatisfactory measures and
results.
3. There is a need to set definition for „climate refugees“ as well
as to include this potential problem in the global climate debate.
4. There is a need for Black Sea countries to co-operate on
climate issues (e.g. in the frame of Black Sea Synergy
programme).
Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience
Thank you for your attention:
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