Transcript Българската икономика

Credit Rating of Bulgaria
Bulgaria has proven higher investment credibility
June 2004 Standard&Poor’s gave an investment-
grade foreign-currency rating
BBВ (stable outlook) by Standard&Poor’s;
BBВ (stable outlook) by Fitch IBCA;
Bа1 (stable outlook) by Moody’s;
BBВ (positive outlook) by the Japan Credit
Rating Agency
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Estat Index for Bulgarian
Business Climate
6
5,27
5
4
4,51
3,33
3
2
-3
-1,84
-2,55
Ju ly
'04
04
A pr'
4
Ja n'
0
Oct '
03
03
Ju ly
'
03
3
A pr'
-1,56
Ja n'
0
Ju ly
'
-2
-0,61
Oct '
02
02
0
-1
1,67
1,377
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Economic Policy Priorities
 Increasing the competitiveness of Bulgarian
economy through measures for improving the
business environment;
 Support for investments and innovations by
creating the requisite infrastructure;
 Reforms in the sphere of education and
development of science as essential elements in
building a knowledge-based economy.
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Record FDI performer 2004 and ‘sector drivers’ dynamics
FDI as % of GDP, 2004E
10
9.2
FDI per capita (EURO)
10.1% (according to
preliminary data)
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Bulgaria
Romania
Slovakia
600
5.6
6
Czech Republic
%
5.0
4.4
500
4.1
3.9
4
400
3.1
300
2.2
2
1.2
200
100
0
Bulgaria
Romania
Estonia
Czech
Rep.
Slovakia
Croatia
Hungary
Poland
FDI sector shares, past three years
40
Slovenia
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
FDI stock by sector, 1998 – 2004
37
35
28
30
25
23
Other
24
17%
20
16
15
15
10
10
10
7
Tourism & Real
7%
2003
Industry
19%
Estate
0
Finance&banking
Construction
Finance
6
0
2002
25%
2%
11
5
%
Industry
2004
Energy
Telecom
Telecom
12%
Trade
18%
Sources: BNB, InvestBulgaria Agency, Bank Austria Creditanstalt Economic Research, September 2004
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Key projects 2004
Greenfield
Public
Project
Investor
Sector
Won by
ŞIŞE CAM (Turkey)
Gla ss indust ry
Cope nha ge n Airport s ( De nm a rk)
Lindner (Germany)
Real Estate
HIT (Germany)
Retail trade
35-year operating
concessions on Varna and
Bourgas airports
Gruppo Societa Gas Rimini (Italy) 35-year licence to supply gas
to Trakia
Bulgarian-Portuguese consortium Motorway Trakia concession
OTE (Greece)
Mobile telecommunications
Mobiltel (Austria)
Privatization
Investor
Sector
CEZ (Czech Rep.)
Electricity distribution
EVN (Austria)
Electricity distribution
Viva Ventures / Advent International (USA, UK) Telecommunications
E.ON (Germany)
Electricity distribution
1st high-speed, thirdgeneration (3G) mobile
services
Bulgarian
Telecommunications
Company (BTC)
privatization was the
investment
‘milestone’ to effect
the whole telecom
market
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Prospective competitiveness
Average labor cost per hour, USD
outlook
Hungary
Czech Rep
Poland
7
4.92
6
5
Average real wages (% change yoy)
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
6.52
14.0
5.73
12.0
3.51
6.0
1.34
1.03
1
Poland
8.0
4.6
4
2
Hungary
10.0
3.99
3
Czech Republic
4.0
2.0
0
0.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005F
2006F
2007F
2008F
-2.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005F
2006F
2007F 2008F
 For the next few years real wages in
Bulgaria are expected to grow at some
2% on annual basis; real wages growth
rate in Bulgaria will be similar to that in
CEE countries
540
530
520
510
500
490
 Alarming decline in educational
performance in schools reduces
competitiveness in perspective
480
470
460
450
1995
1999
2003
Source: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study,TIMSS 2003, EIU
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Bulgaria in global ‘rethinking’ of hi-tech leaders
 MARCH 28, 2005: GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE TESTING PROGRAM ON A
GLOBAL SCALE (BRAINBENCH) FINDS HIGH CONCENTRATION OF
TECHNICAL SKILLS IN EASTERN EUROPE
 Surprising results that challenge commonly-held views about
concentrations of the world"s technical talent pools:
 Eastern European nations such as Romania, Latvia, Bulgaria, and
Belarus lead Western countries such as the U.K., Australia,
Germany, and France in total certifications.
 As a percentage of total population, Latvia, Estonia, and Bulgaria
lead the world.
"We"re used to hearing in the press about technology skills being outsourced and concentrated in Asia,
primarily India but considering how relevant English is to things like programming languages, the
strong results across nearly all of Eastern Europe are fascinating. Looking at the numbers makes you
rethink some of the usual assumptions about the global workforce skills pool.”
Mike Russiello, Brainbench’s President and Chief Executive Officer
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Thank you!
Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
42, Parchevich Str.,
BG-1058 Sofia
Bulgaria
Tel.: (+359 2) 987 25 28
Fax: (+359 2) 987 32 09
Web: http://www.bcci.bg
E-mail [email protected]
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