Transcript Emerging issues and new risk patterns: what is needed

Emerging issues and new risk patterns:
what is needed for identifying risk?
Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP
Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning
Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk
Management
23-24 May 2006, WMO
Geneva, Switzerland
Risk evaluation
Risk = Hazard x Element exposed x Vulnerability*
Physical Exposure
Expected Nb Frequency
people killed, and
economical magnitude of
losses
the hazards
Population,
infrastructures,
… other
element in the
exposed areas
Degree of
fragility of the
exposed
elements [0;1]
* UNDRO (1979), Natural Disasters and Vulnerability Analysis in Report of Expert Group Meeting
UNEP - PREVIEW database
Used for the UNDP Disaster Risk Index and
for the Hotspots study (cyclones/volcanoes)
PREVIEW: Cyclones, floods, earthquakes,
volcanoes, tsunamis, forest fires, drought.
www.grid.unep.ch/preview
Modellisation of past tropical cyclones (1979 - 2005)
Cyclone’s
Direction
V (ms1 )
Http://www.grid.unep.ch/data/grid/gnv200.php
From frequency to exposuresique
Please visit www.grid.unep.ch/preview to see and access data on
earthquakes, volcanoes, drought, forest fires, floods, cyclones, tsunami.
Vulnrability and development
Result from the DRI analysis
How can risk increase ?
Hazard
Risk
Element
exposed
Vulnerability
Hazard (new hazard, or higher
frequency or strength)
Element exposed
Vulnerability
A Growing population
The world population reaches 6.4 billions
(2004)
+80 millions /year,
(equ. to the population of an additional
country the size of Germany or Vietnam)
In 2050 we will be at least 9 billions
Homo Sapiens: an urban species
Urban world population
Urban population (%)
Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004
Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004
NASA, DSMP
31.6% of urban population is living in slums
Mexico city
1973 (9 millions
inhabitants)
1986 (14 millions)
2000 (20 millions)
On 19 sept. 1985 an
earthquake stroke Mexico
killing 9500 and causing
more than 4 billions US$
damages (Em-Dat). At
that time Mexico had
around 14 millions inhab.
Increasing climatic disasters?
P.Peduzzi, Environment & Poverty Times, UNEP, 2005
Data sources, OFDA/CRED, EM-DAT
The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net
Glacier are losing between 0.2 and 1 m of thickness every year.
Aletsch glacier between 1905 and 2005 (Switzerland)
Permafrost limit is
higher
Rocks and debris are
exposed
1/6 of world
population depends
on glaciers for
water supply.
Identifying hazards,… but there are surprises
March 2004
Sources NASA: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12033
Catarina, 4 killed,
350 mio US$
damages
Since mid-1960's, no hurricane has ever
been observed in the South Atlantic.
Tropical cyclones affected by global warming ?
• 2005, warmest year in northern hemisphere
• Highest number of Tropical cyclones. (26)
(14 became tropical cyclones and 7 supercyclones).
Previous record = 21 in 1933.
•2005 highest economical losses from climatic events:
200 billions US$ losses. (Katrina alone:125 billions
US$).
•Strongest winds: Wilma gusts of winds reaching 330
km/h. Lowest central pressure 882 hPa (previous record
888 hPa - Gilbert in 1988).
Debate on cyclic effect or global warming ?
Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5
for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean
basins
Sources: P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005)
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment,
Science.
Deforestation and soil erosion/landslides?
Santa Cruz, Boliva: Land Use
Change
Body text
1975: Forests
2000: agriculture fields for
large companies
Deforestation and landslides induced by tropical
cyclones
P.Peduzzi, Environment & Poverty Times, UNEP, 2005
Effect of deforestation on precipitations ?
Primary forest extent in Ivory Coast
Date
Mio ha
1900
14,5
1955
11,8
1965
9.0
1973
6,2
1980
4.0
19901
2,7
20052
0.63
Cartography: UNEP/GRID-Arendal
2005 – 1900: -95.65%
1 Harcourt
2 FAO
et Collins (1992)
(2005)
Precipitations has a cyclic pattern… sure ?
Trend line -> y = 89.5936 - 0.0366651 x
Annual trend -> - 5.28 mm / year
Yearly average reduce by 374.9 mm
lost between 1922 and 1993
Correlation between forest cover in Ivory Coast
and precipitation in Dedougou
Mil request 600 mm
For growing
Lake Chad (from 23’000 km2 to 300 km2 in 2001)
Sources: UNEP (2005) One planet Many People
Summary of environmental changes & hazards
• Landslides: higher frequencies due to higher permafrost
limit at high altitude and from deforestation.
•Floods: higher frequency due to higher concentration of
water vapour and higher evaporation.
• Tropical cyclones : either more frequent or more powerful.
(Webster et al. 2005)
• Drought: higher evaporation might induce more frequent
drought. Removal of vegetation reduces rains.
• Heatwave: probability of occurrence is increasing (Stott
and al., 2005)
•Costal erosion: 15-20cm / century (Miller & Douglas
2005). Might cause 50-200 millions eco-refugees by 2080
(Nicholls, 2004).
Increase in Vulnerability
• AIDS
• Conflicts
• Poverty
• Environmental degradation
7 causes for failure in risk reduction
1. Ignorance of a new danger
e.g. long latent periods before impacts
2. Under estimation of a danger: the wait & see approach.
3. Short-term vision
e.g. decision taken from past situations
without taking into account increase and changes.
4. Trust in future technologies that will solve the
issue later.
5. Prioritizing economical/political benefits versus
sustainable development (costly or unpopular decisions).
6. Following general move
(e.g. not willing to apply stricter
rules if others do not apply them.)
7. Scare by costs of false alarm (crying wolf)
7 ways to improve risk management
governance
1. Better consideration of scientific (early) warning
2. Identification of trends (incl. Climate change)
3. Development of plans for urban growth (and land
planning).
4. Prioritise sustainable use of resources over shortterm benefit (protection of oceans, forest, climate).
5. Apply precautionary Principle.
6. Eliminate corruption.
7. Take long term impacts / costs into consideration
for decision making
7 needs for risk reduction
1. Improve understanding of new issues
(climate change, risk patterns and trends).
2. Free access to data on risk issues (e.g.
precipitation, temperature, natural resources) for
stimulating researches.
3. Better public support of monitoring
centres (such as meteorological stations).
4. New law and control enforcements
5. Place scientists, industries and politics at
the same table.
6. Develop public awareness (schools, media,…)
7. Better understanding of interconnectivity
between natural features & hazards, SST.
References:
P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005),
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming
Environment, Science.
Nicholls, R.J., (2004), Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century:
changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios". In Global
Environmental Change, 14(1):69-86.
Miller, l., B.C. Douglas, (2004), Mass and volume contributions to twentiethcentury global sea level rise”, in Nature, Vol. 428, pp.406-409.
UNEP, (2005), One Planet Many People: an atlas of our changing
environment. 334 p.
Migraine, J.B., P. Peduzzi (under preparation), Analysing global precipitation
trends (1901 - 2000)
Peduzzi, P., C. Herold, W. Silverio, (under preparation), Impacts of climate
change on Coropuna glacier and related threat on water supplies.
Peduzzi, P. (2005), Tropical cyclones: paying a high price for environmental
destruction, in Environment & Poverty Times, No.3, Special Edition for the
World Conference on Disaster Reduction January 18-22, 2005, Kobe, Japan.
Giuliani, G., A., De Bono, K., Kluser, P., Peduzzi (2004), Overfishing, a major
threat to the global marine ecology. UNEP
Thank you
Please visit
www.grid.unep.ch/preview
Late lessons from Early Warning:
the precautionary principle 1896-2000
http://www.energyrisks.jrc.nl/library/LibraryChapter2/Chapter2pdfs/
Precautionary-Principle-EEA-Harremoes.pdf
Sources
Sources UNDP
UNDP 2003
2003