Transcript Ms. Lourdes Tibig, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical

by
Lourdes V. Tibig
Presented at the In-Session Workshop on Impacts of and Vulnerability and
Adaptation to Climate Change,
Bonn, Germany, 18 June 2004
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The Philippines
7,107 islands
total area: ~ 300,000 km2
total coastline : 33,900 km.
total forest lands: 15 million hectares
wetlands:14,100 km2
groundwater resources:50,000 km2
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climate
• high maximum and minimum temperatures
• heavy annual rainfall
:
1000 mm to 5000 mm
• mean tropical cyclone occurrences : 20 per year
trends
• increasing daytime temperatures, more hot days
• increasing night time temperatures, more warm nights
• no significant trends in rainfall
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non-climate factors
• demography:
 ~ 80 million in 2000 with an annual growth
rate of 2.4%
 large population in megacities
• economy:
 mostly agriculture-based
• land-use change:
 enormous due to industrialization and
population growth
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How are climate variability /change
risks perceived in the Philippines?
•
weather/climate-related hazards (in terms
of damages, fatalities and social and
economic costs)
• socio-economic vulnerabilities (including
environmental changes/degradation)
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• weather/climate-related hazards
 floods
- tropical cyclones
- storm surges
- intense monsoon rains
 droughts
- El Niño -related

Number and intensity of these extreme events have been
seen to increase.

Damages due to these events have also been increasing.
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Earthquake & Others
15%
Drought 11%
Floodings 4%
Tropical Cyclones
70%
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGES
Floodings
13%
Earthquake & Others
4%
Drought 6%
Earthquake & Others
25%
Landslides
2%
Floodings 5%
tropical Cyclones 68%
Tropical Cyclones 77%
NUMBER OF DEATHS
PERSONS AFFECTED
Figure 2: Major natural disasters in the Philippines (1971- 2000)
In 1995, 3 destructive tropical cyclones caused
fatalities :
1,164
risk is 1 person in every 50,000
losses:
US$ 601.75 million
contribution of 1 person in every 91 or
contribution of 708,000 persons to the
GNP for 1995
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vulnerability to climate variability
Losses/damages ( P billion)
25
20
15
10
5
0
1971
Figure 3:
1976
1981
1986
1991
Year
1996
2001
The costs of disastrous tropical cyclones have
exhibited an upward trend in recent decades.
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Climate change risks for each sector
Agriculture and food supply sector
highly dependent on water (both a resource and a hazard)
Figure 6: Philippine rice
production.
(Arrows indicate El
Niño events.)
In 1998, the El Niño event caused an 80% - drop in agricultural
production.
- for rice production alone, a US$ 100 million loss
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Coastal resources
Its vulnerability :
- 10 cm/decade SLR in some coastal cities
- long history of storm surges (48 known
occurrences in 50 years with as much as 9-m
storm surge height)
- some areas already partially inundated
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Coastal resources (continued)
 endangered access to clean water during floods
 intrusion of saltwater in its agricultural areas
 aggravated flooding potential esp. in low-lying areas
 higher risks to lives and damages in coastal areas
 impacts on marine ecosystems (reefs, corals, etc.)
- more frequent episodes of toxic red tides
- migration of fish to areas with more favorable
conditions leading to diminished harvest
(coastal fishing = 40 – 60% of total fish catch)
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Water resources
impacts of La Niña /El Niño
La Niña
more intense rains
floods, soil erosion
more tropical cyclone occurrences
El Niño
diminished rains
less groundwater
Climate change impacts
 frequency of floods/droughts
amount/quality of water
(impacts on agriculture, power
generation, public health, etc.)
 shorter return periods of floods
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Human health sector
 will further lead to
climatic stress on
human health
Figure 7: Potential health impacts of
climate and its change
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More extreme events will lead to:
• disruptions of environmental health services
and infrastructures (water supply,public
sanitation, etc.)
•
significant rise in water-, food- and vector-borne
diseases
•
conditions that could cause outbreak of diseases
like dengue, malaria and cholera (esp. in
depressed areas)
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some expected climate risks for health
• could cause an increase in epidemic potential of
12 to 27% for malaria, 31 to 47% for dengue, 11
to 17% for schistosomiasis, etc.
• more frequent cholera and diarrhea incidences
• could also cause an increase in respiratory illnesses
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Summary:
Climate change will alter the number and
frequency of extreme events which could cause
the exponential increase of adverse impacts
on humans, natural ecosystems and the
environment in the Philippines, (most important
of which are human survival and the quality of
life).
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Climate change will have lasting
consequences.
In addressing climate
change,
the job is just beginning.
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