Transcript ppt - WMO

WMO
CAS-16 and the pre-CAS TECO:
Preparing WWRP and GAW for Emerging
Challenges
Michel Beland, President CAS
WMO; CAS, EC-65
Research to support a rapidly changing world
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Research is becoming even more important because of the
acceleration of environmental changes, technological advances and
WMO
potentially approaching limits to growth…
Population growth, urbanization, changing atmospheric composition,
climate change, unsatisfactory climate services, vulnerabilities, air and
water pollution, biodiversity, food security, resources constraints,
economic growth stagnation?, but also:
New technologies transforming communications, impacting
dissemination of weather information, as well as sharing of
observations in real time.
Next generation of Hexa flop+ supercomputers extremely costly to run
(power hungry) and operate (new approaches for dynamical cores,
etc…).
Thus, a renewed focus on needs-driven environmental research is
demonstrably best coordinated though global cooperation, and closely
linked with operational services.
WMO is particularly well positioned to continue to play a leading role
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Long records of Carbon Dioxide (CO2),
Methane (CH4), and Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
concentrations all show sharp increases
Mechanism
Cause
s
Impact
Source: United Nations, Department of
Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Division (2011): World
Population Prospects: The 2010
Revision.
Estimated and projected world population according to different variants, 1950-2100 (b
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Atmospheric changes caused by low sea ice
Reduced sea ice in August/September
© Jaiser et al.,
Tellus 2012
Possible feedback
Additional heat stored in ocean
Warmer surface temperatures in following seasons
Arctic
Response
Reduced atmospheric vertical stability
Amplified baroclinic weather systems in autumn
Impact on planetary systems in winter
Large-scale
Response
Negative Arctic Oscillation phase
Enhanced possibility of cold winters in Central Europe
2016-03-27
MeteoFrance,
Paris.
Urban agglomerations at risk
of multiple natural hazards (2025)
United Nations 2012
Between half and two thirds of the cities with 1 million
inhabitants or more are located in areas that face high risk
of exposure to at least one natural disaster.
By 2080, 39% of lizard populations and 20% of all lizard species will be extinct.
2016-03-27
MeteoFrance,
Paris.
Toxic Algae Bloom in Lake Erie
October 5-9, 2011, MODIS (Aqua)
The bloom is
primarily
microcystis
aeruginosa, an algae
that is toxic to
mammals. Several
days of calm winds
and warm
temperatures
allowed the algae to
gather on the
surface.
2016-03-27
MeteoFrance,
Paris.
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The 16th Session of the Commission for
Atmospheric Sciences
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Pre-CAS-16 TECO
18-19 November 2013
Antalya, Turkey
"Responding to the environmental stressors of the 21st
century“
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CAS-16
20-26 November 2013
Antalya, Turkey
TECO agenda
Urbanization,
High impact weather and its socio-economic impacts,
Water and its importance in the earth system,
Aerosols and their consequences to humans and the weather and
climate system,
Evolving technology in observations,
Computations and communications,
Finding the balance between climate change mitigation and adaptation
through improved information on GHG
Geoengineering will set the framework for strategic required for future
planning.
CAS-16 Programme
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Progress and future direction of:
The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)
THORPEX, recalling its conclusion at the end 2014
Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme
GURME
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Recommendations of joint activities
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Collaborative activities between WCRP, WWRP and GAW
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Cross-cutting initiatives within WMO and with Partners
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A Ten-Year Future View: Emerging challenges and opportunities
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The Structure of the Commission and Linkages with the WMO
Strategic Plan
Proposals on the Post-THORPEX legacy
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The success of THORPEX will form the basis of:
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Three high-profile projects
 Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction research (S2S), a
joint research initiative of WCRP and WWRP
 Polar Prediction Research Project, the Nowcasting to
seasonal research component of GIPPS
 High Impact Weather Research Project, focusing on
hours to weeks with special attention to applications
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The incorporation into WWRP structures of 2 new Working
Groups:
 Data Assimilation and Observation Systems
 Predictability and Ensemble systems
Strategic Discussion at CAS-16
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Strategic papers on Emerging issues of relevance to the
Commission and its work over the next ten years:
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Urbanization,
High impact weather and its socio-economic impacts, links
with commercial services, partnerships,
Water and its importance in the earth system,
Aerosols and their consequences to humans and the
weather and climate system,
Evolving technology in observations,
Computations and communications,
Finding the balance between climate change mitigation
and adaptation through improved information on GHG
Geoengineering will set the framework for strategic
required for future planning.
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Thank you for your attention
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contact information
www.wmo.int