Transcript WMO Strategic Planning

WMO/CCl perspectives for ETCCDI
Pierre Bessemoulin
President, WMO Commission for Climatology
Workshop “Extremes in a changing Climate”
De Bilt, The Netherlands, 13-16 May 2008
Monitoring climate extremes
The WMO authoritative statement on the state of the climate: An
insight into the global and regional Variability, Trends and Extreme climate
events around the world
ETCCDI TERMS OF REFERENCE
(Mandate given by WMO Members at CCl-14, Beijing, Nov. 2005)
1. To provide international coordination and help organize collaboration on
climate change detection and indices relevant to climate change
detection;
2. To further develop and publicize indices and indicators of climate
variability and change from the surface and sub-surface ocean to the
stratosphere;
3. To encourage the comparison of modelled data and observations perhaps
via the development of indices appropriate for both sources of
information;
4. To coordinate these and other relevant activities the ET chooses to
engage in (such as perhaps observing system experiments that help
determine where observations are needed for climate change detection)
with other appropriate agencies such as GCOS, CBS, CIMO, CAgM,
CHy, IPCC, START etc. as well with the joint WCRP JSC/CLIVAR
Working Group on Coupled Modelling, the WCRP Observations and
Assimilation Panel, and Regional Associations;
5. To explore, document and make recommendations for addressing the
needs for capacity building in each region, pertinent to this topic;
6. To submit reports in accordance with timetables established by the OPAG
chair and/or Management Group.
ETCCDI WORKPLAN:
ACTIONS TIMEFRAME TO
COMPLETE ACTIONS

The Work plan was discussed and developed during the
ETCCDI (CCl ET2.1) meeting; Niagara-on-the Lake,
Canada, 14-16 November 2006 (WCDMP No. 64) , and
considered the above-mentionned needs

List of actions and deadlines pp 1-2 in Meeting Report
available at
http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/48583/01/115_etccdi2.pdf

Contribution to IPCC ARs, especially using Regional
workshops outcomes
Indices development and analysis tools
• User friendly workshop software written by
Xuebin Zhang of Environment Canada
• Uses the free statistical package “R”
• Does QC, homogeneity testing, and creates
27 different indices
• Produces a variety of high quality graphs
• Available from:
http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/
• Software user guide available in English and
Spanish (translated by Jose Luis Santos of
Ecuador)
LONG TERM MEDARE’s GOAL IS:
TO DEVELOP A HIGH QUALITY INSTRUMENTAL CLIMATE
DATASET FOR THE GREATER MEDITERRANEAN REGION
(GMR)
HOW ?
SEEKING AND MOBILIZING RESOURCES AT NATIONAL,
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LEVELS
UNDERTAKING SPECIFIC DATA RESCUE (DARE) PROJECTS
IN A COLLABORATIVE FUNDING CONTEXT
DEVELOPING A WEB-BASED DATA AND METADATA
EXCHANGE INFRASTRUCTURE
TRAINING YOUNG SCIENTISTS IN DARE TECHNIQUES AND
PROCEDURES
RAISING AWARENESS AMONGST NMHS MANAGERS AND
STAFF, STAKEHOLDERS, POLICY-MAKERS, SOCIAL AGENTS
AND SOCIETY
CAPACITY BUILDING OVER MED LDCs AND DCs
WHO ?
NMHSS, UNIVERSITIES, CLIMATE INSTITUTIONS, INTERNATIONAL
DATA ARCHIVING CENTRES, INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE DATA
PROJECTS AND NETWORKS
THE KEY ELEMENTS IN THIS ENTERPRISE ARE
COLLABORATION, PARTNERSHIP, INFORMATION SHARING,
MULTILATERAL PROJECTS, NETWORKING
AND WE ARE ORGANISED THROUGH
WG1 ON OLD MATERIAL SOURCES AND
HOLDERS.
WG2 ON DARE TECHNIQUES AND
PROCEDURES (INCLUDING DIGITIZATION).
WG3 ON QUALITY CONTROLLING AND
HOMOGENIZING SPECIFIC CLIMATE
VARIABLES.
WG4 PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITIES
WHAT WE NEED?
RESOURCES, BOTH FINANCIAL AND HUMAN
MEDARE WEB PORTAL
Some Key issues for WMO and NMHSs
• Observed and Validated Global and Continental extremes
(http://wmo.asu.edu/), National climate extremes (NMHSs)
• Impact of climate change on climate variability and extremes; projected
future changes (long term trends) for adaptation purposes:
– ECVs; sea level,…
– Frequency and intensity of Events such as TCs, Extratropical cyclones,
Convective storms, Coastal waves, Floods, Heat Waves, Cold spells,
Drought, Growing season duration, …;
– Storm tracks; ENSO and other oscillations; Weather types (e.g.
blocking); Meridional overturning circulation; …
• Return periods of Extremes for design and safety purposes e.g. of long-live
infrastructure (NPPs, buildings, bridges, sewage systems, harbours,…)
• The use of return periods of extreme values of hydro-meteorological
parameters is very popular in a lot of countries (even written in law).
However, current extreme values theories such as e.g. Gumbel approach,
Generalized Extreme Values (GEV), Peaks Over Thresholds (POT), rely on
the assumption of stationarity of climate. This is no longer the case for a
number of meteorological or hydrological parameters.
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Several studies point out that the change of extremes cannot be explained by a simple
shift of the distribution but is also associated to an increase in its variability
Need for Climate Indices for characterizing extremes (including Ocean), which can be
derived from both observations and climate models
The extreme values theory has been extended to non stationnary processes by some
authors, e.g.:
- Zwiers, F.W. and V.V. Kharin, 1998: Changes in the Extremes of the Climate Simulated by
CCC GCM2 under CO2 Doubling, J. Climate, 2200-2222.
- Kharin, V.V. and F.W. Zwiers, 2005: Estimating Extremes in Transient Climate Change
Simulations. J. Climate, 18: 1156-1173.
- Parey, S. F. Malek, C. Laurent and D. Dacunha-Castelle, 2007: Trends and climate evolution:
statistical approach for very high temperatures in France. Climate Change, 81:331-352 ( making
use of the POT model).
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There is a clear need for a guidance document on the behaviour of extremes in a
changing climate (e.g. return periods); T probably easier than RR..
- Planton, S. et al., 2008: Expected Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Climate Events.
Geosciences, under press.
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Physical mechanisms of observed and predicted changes, and related uncertainties
Identify observations needs for climate change detection (e.g. quantifying distribution
and extremes of snowfall and hailfall still a challenge)
Incentives to historical Data Rescue operations
Extremes in relation to impacts, e.g. :
– Munich Ré: http://www.munichre.com/en/ts/geo_risks/default.aspx
– CRED/EMDAT: http://www.emdat.be/
Climate extremes
Risk management / Climate Watch
• Climate watch: A warning advisory for a climate-related hazard which
is likely to happen considering climate monitoring output and climate
anomalies forecast, and first of all on its possible negative impacts (see
WCDMP-No. 58, WMO-TD No. 1269)
• Climate Watch includes a set of functions and responsibilities (who is
doing what)
• Climate Watch advisories are to be issued by NMHSs to their users
(comparable to Weather Awareness Reports; see e.g.
http://www.meteoalarm.eu/?areaname=&area=&ShowDate=&Country=
&lang=EN ), together with indications about potential impacts and
advices on how to behave.
European 2003 summer heat wave
• Daily max > 40C Aug 5-13 in
central/eastern France
• Impacts include > 50,000 deaths all
over Western Europe
Estimation of Return Periods
Average of 4 Stations: Zürich, Basel, Berne, Geneva
10 y
100 y
1000 y
1864-2003
10 y
100 y
mean
1000 y
Example: Return period of Summer Tm (°C) in France:
- based on traditional approaches (Gumbel, GEV,…) : several
thousand years
- in late 21st century: several years
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1900
1920
1940
1960
White squares: observations
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
Orange triangles: climate model outputs
2100
WMO Restructuring: Historical Review
 2003: Cg-XIV approved the 6LTP and Budget on the basis
of strategies, objectives and programmes; but it decided
that WMO should start the transition to Result-based
Management (RBM);
 June 2005: EC-LVII approved the 2006-2007 budget in a
result-based form;
 June 2006: EC-LVIII decided on the results-based outline
of the WMO Strategic Plan (SP) and results-based budget
(RBB) and requested development of a WMO Operating
Plan (WMO-OP) as link between SP and RBB;
 The Secretariat developed the required documents during
the 2nd half of 2006;
 May 2007: Approval by Cg-XV of results-based SP and
Budget
Four strategic planning documents
1.
WMO Strategic Plan - High-level statement of strategic directions
and priorities through Top-level Objectives, Strategic Thrusts and
Expected Results and Key Performance Indicators; /1/
2.
WMO Operating Plan – Based on Programmes. Link between the SP
and the RBB; it converts the ERs into specific deliverables, timelines,
performance indicators and activities; /1/
3.
Results-Based Budget (RBB) - connects the deliverables and activities
to resources; /2/
4.
WMO Monitoring & Performance Evaluation Plan – Tracks
implementation and provides for control and corrective actions for
achieving the ERs./3/
/1/ http://www.wmo.int -> About us-> Strategic Planning
/2/ Cg-XV/Doc 8.2, Res 35 (Cg-XV) and Res 23 (EC-LIX)
/3/ Under development (see PTC-2008 agenda item 5.2)
11 Expected Results and > 200 deliverables
WMO Strategic Plan
3 Top-level
Objectives
To produce more accurate,
timely and reliable forecasts
and warnings of weather,
climate, water, and related
environmental elements
To improve the delivery of
weather, climate, water, and
related environmental
information and services to
the public, governments
and other users
To provide scientific and
technical expertise and
advice in support of policy
and decision-making and
implementation of the
agreed international
development goals and
multilateral agreements
5 Strategic
Thrusts
1. Enhanced capabilities of Members to produce better
weather forecasts and warnings
2. Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide better
climate predictions and assessments
3. Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide better
hydrological forecasts and assessments
4. Integration of WMO observing systems
Science and Technology
Development and
Implementation
5. Development and implementation of the new WMO
Information System
Service Delivery
6. Enhanced capabilities of Members in multi-hazard
early warning and disaster prevention and
preparedness
7. Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide and
use weather, climate, water and environmental
applications and services
Partnership
Capacity-building
Efficient Management and
good Governance
8. Broader use of weather, climate and water outputs
for decision-making and implementation by Members
and partner organizations
9. Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs in developing
countries, particularly least developed countries, to
fulfil their mandates
10. Effective and efficient functioning of constituent
bodies
11. Effective and efficient management performance
and oversight of the Organization
TCs contribution to WMO Operating Plans
•
ETCCDI contributing to ERs 2,7,8,9
•
Current shortfall: the Regulation to distribute the Result-based
Budget (RBB) to Members six months prior to the Congress
meeting (i.e., Nov 2006) forced the parallel development of the
Strategic Plan (SP), Operating Plan (OP)and RBB and did not
allow sufficient time to collect inputs from the TCs and RAs.
•
Therefore next steps will include to:
- Align by mid-2008 the existing (2008-2011) work plans (2012-2015)
of the TCs and RAs to the ERs based on the Secretariat OP
deliverables of the corresponding Programme(s);
- Publish the WMO-OP 2010-2011 by end-2009 once validated by EC
61;
- Consider the upcoming work plans (2012-2015) of the TCs and RAs
at the very beginning of the development of a new process for next
financial period 2012-2015;
- Publish Final draft WMO-OP 2012-2015 by end-2009, then submitted
to EC 62 for final approval.
Some vision elements
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6)
To agree on the importance of the CCl/Clivar/JCOMM ETCCDI work in
advancing the knowledge, reducing the uncertainties and providing useful
information on climate extremes;
To call on WMO and NMHSs to continue their support to ETCCDI work,
in particular providing at least daily climate data;
To agree that research in climate extremes should be further
mainstreamed into development issues such as Climate Risk Management
(CRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA);
To consider new ways in improving and /or establishing linkages between
research work on climate extremes and the operational work undertaken
under WMO programmes, in particular Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR),
WCDMP (Data & Monitoring), and WCASP (Applications and Services).
This task includes climate information provision to end users by the
NMHSs and the Regional Climate Centres, delivered at events and
workshops such as the Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and
the Regional Climate Watch Workshops;
Potential input of ET work to the UNFCCC « Nairobi work programme
on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change » set up by
COP12: Several WMO actions are identified as adaptation tools in
support of this programme, e.g. Climate Data and Observations, Climate
Watches, Climate Extremes, RCOFs, CLIPS, etc..
Relevance of climate extremes to upcoming WCC-3 (2009) focused on
seasonal to decadal timescales;
Thank you
Merci
Спасибо
Gracias
‫شكرا‬
谢谢