Transcript Report from SERA WG

Societal and Economic Research and
Applications Working Group (SERA WG)
Brian Mills
Chair, WWRP-SERA WG
Meteorological Research Division
Environment Canada
c/o Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo
Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1
[email protected]
CTV
Toronto Star
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/weather_society.html
What is social science?
PHYS. & NAT. SCIENCES
SOCIAL SCIENCES
• Anthropology
• Communication Studies
• Economics
• Geography
• History
• Political Science
• Psychology
• Sociology
HUMANITIES
What is social science?
“…the goal of social science is to uncover
proximate causes of behaviour.” (Elster 2010)
• No universal social theory akin to those developed in the
physical sciences (myth of the rational actor)
• Theories of the “middle-range” and “contextualized
conceptualizations”
Objectives: Description, explanation, and prediction
Data and methods
Original data collection
Secondary data collection
• Surveys and questionnaires (various
sampling designs)
• National, regional or thematic
censuses/surveys (e.g., Canadian
Community Health Survey)
• Structured, semi-structured,
unstructured interviews
• Focus groups
• Direct observation (overt, covert; in situ,
remote)
• Experimentation and simulation
• Government, media, industry or nongovernmental records (e.g.,
newspaper reports, web site hits)
• Mining past research (for metaanalyses, benefit/impact transfer
functions)
Research design and analytical methods
• One-shot case studies are common, also quasi-experimental designs for field trials,
simulations, and secondary data analysis
• Various statistical methods (descriptive, correlational, inferential), content analysis,
and qualitative techniques used
Social Science and Risk
Example Definitions of Risk
Source
…the probability of some future event.
Short (1984:711)
…probability of an adverse event multiplied by the
consequences of that event.
Rosa (2003)
…the chance of injury or loss as defined as a measure of the
probability and severity of an adverse effect to health,
property, the environment, or other things of value.
Bruce et al. (2006:39)
Risks are measures of the likelihood of specific ‘hazardous
events' leading to certain adverse consequences.
Kates and Kasperson
(1983:7029)
…possibility that human actions or events lead to
consequences that affect aspects of what humans value.
(Renn 1998:51)
…a situation or event in which something of human value
(including humans themselves) has been put at stake and
where the outcome is uncertain.
(Rosa 1998:28)
Risk = probability of an event * consequences
Consequences
Löw and Wirtz 2012 (Munich Re Topics Geo 2011)
Consequences
Löw and Wirtz 2012 (Munich Re Topics Geo 2011)
Analysis of Consequences
Lazo, J.K., M. Lawson, P.H. Larsen, and D.M. Waldman, 2011. U.S.
economic sensitivity to weather variability, Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 92(6):709-720.
Interannual aggregate dollar variation in U.S. economic
activity that is attributable to weather variability could be
3.4% or $485 billion of the 2008 gross domestic product.
3% of gross world product* in 2011 = $2.3 trillion
*based on Earth Policy Institute and IMF GWP figures
Key question
• How much of the impact can be affected by improved weather and
related risk information and associated services (interventions)?
- basis for estimating social and economic value
- assumptions concerning information, behaviour, and outcomes, i.e., what
constitutes “success”
- attributes of forecast meet certain thresholds of acceptance (e.g., timing, spatial precision,
magnitude, duration)
- forecast was disseminated (timeliness)
- receipt of the forecast
- forecast was understood
- recipients were satisfied with the information
- behavioural intent (understanding consequences and actions)
- information was used in making decisions
- recipients adjusted their behaviour
- outcomes of decisions and behaviours were positive and “appropriate”
- other?
Attribution of benefits is difficult
Outdoor recreation?
30
5
Home construction
25
3.5
20
Fatalities
4
Urbanization & ag technology
ER & medicine
3
Wx forecasting?
15
2.5
2
10
1.5
1
5
0.5
0
0
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Fatalities
Canadian Rate
US Rate
Sources: Statistics Canada, vital statistics; Lopez & Holle, 1998
Fatality rate per million population
4.5
Social science contributions to/from the
“weather enterprise”
• Justification for past and planned investments
• Complementary role in the selection, design, testing, implementation
and evaluation of system changes/improvements (publication quantity and quality;
standard verification procedures; simple measures of public use, awareness, satisfaction)
• Advancement of broader social science theory, conceptualization, and
analytical methods
SERA WG
The primary purpose of the WG SERA is to advance the science of
the social and economic application of weather-related information
and services. This is accomplished in part through the development,
review and promotion of societal and economic-related
demonstration projects focused on high-impact weather (HIW) and
information. Activities address one or more of the following priority
knowledge and application areas:
• estimation of the economic (societal) value of weather information;
• understanding and improving the use of weather information in decision making;
• understanding and improving the communication of weather forecast uncertainty;
• development of user-relevant verification methods; and
• development of decision support systems and tools.
Membership
L-R: Joanne Robbins (UK), Jacqueline Frick (Switzerland), Linda Anderson-Berry (Australia), Haleh
Kootval (WMO-PWS), Brian Mills (chair, Canada), Angelika Wirtz (IRDR, Germany), Kwabena Anaman
(Ghana).
Not pictured: Paul Kovacs (Canada), Jeffrey Lazo (ex-officio, USA), Nanette Lomarda (WMO-WWRP),
Eugene Poolman (South Africa), Michael Staudinger (Austria), David Johnston (IRDR, New Zealand)
Meetings/expert contributions
• U.S. National Hurricane Conference, Atlanta, April 2011
• Grand Forks Integrated Warning Team Workshop, Fargo, U.S.A., June 2011
• 2011 AMS Summer Community Meeting, Boulder, CO. August 2011
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Thorpex
International Core Steering Committee meeting, Geneva, September 2011
• WMO RA VI Conference on Social and Economic Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services, Lucerne,
Switzerland, October 2011
• The Womens Insurance Network, London, UK, October 2011
• Stakeholders Workshop for JCOMM-CHy Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project in Bangladesh
(CIFDP-BSW), November-December 2011
• NWS Weather Ready Nation: A Vital Conversation - Norman, OK - December 2011
• PERILS, Zurich, Switzerland, December 2011
• American Meteorological Society annual meetings, New Orleans, January 2012
• Coastal Cities at Risk international (Manila, Bankok, Lagos, Vancouver) case study planning workshop,
Vancouver, March 2012
• Thorpex Africa RC meeting, May 2012
• Property Claims Service Annual Conference, Orlando, U.S.A., May 2012
• Global Platform on Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland, May 2012
Activities
Coordination and integration with IRDR
•
formal working arrangement between the WMO WWRP and the Integrated
Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme (ICSU, ISSC, UNISDR)
effective Jan 2012
•
permits access to a much deeper pool of social and interdisciplinary scientific
expertise that is engaged in similar research across the broad spectrum of
natural, social, and technological risks and hazards
•
Implementation to proceed through identifying opportunities for collaboration
(defining common case studies, mutual lines of inquiry, and training/knowledge
exchange sessions) with the IRDR Forensic Investigations of Disasters
(FORIN), Risk Interpretation and Action (RIA), and Disaster Loss Data (DATA)
working groups
•
potential involvement in joint young scientist capacity-building programme with
the recently designated IRDR Centre of Excellence based at The Academy of
Sciences in Taipei, China
Activities
SERA Guidance document
•
draft document guiding proponents in the design, costing and implementation
of SERA elements of atmospheric science project proposals seeking sanction
from the WWRP prepared
•
discussed at the July 2012 WG meeting and will be finalized for submission to
the WWRP-JSC (2013)
WWRP/Thorpex/WCRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project
•
draft publication Applications of seasonal to sub-seasonal weather and climate
predictions: An annotated bibliography prepared
•
SERA member review over the next few months and completed (Dec 2012)
•
SERA WG chair has provided input to the project implementation plan and will
solicit additional feedback from WG members
Activities
WWRP Polar Prediction Project
•
input on introduction/context and SERA sections provided to draft project
implementation plan
•
representation on SC; participated in the 27-28 March 2012 SC meeting
•
feedback will be sought from the WG members and the Arctic social science
community as the plan moves to the next phase of completion
•
coordination with related activities (e.g., PCW satellite mission)
Benefit Areas
Activities
Communicating Risk and Uncertainty Workshop (BoM,
Melbourne, 25-30 July 2012)
•
extension of planned SERA WG meeting, combining SERA member expertise
with invited Australasian/international researchers and practitioners
•
update and report on current and cutting-edge research across two of the
SERA research priorities: understanding and improving the use of weather
information in decision making; and understanding and improving the
communication of weather forecast uncertainty
•
broader objective is to support the building of hazard-resilient communities
(geographic and social) (WMO and IRDR)
•
papers and discussion summary in preparation to be published as stand-alone
and/or incorporated into suitable WWRP documents
•
information and collaborations to inform, guide and implement the SERA
Research Demonstration Project (RDP)
Activities
Key areas of discussion
•
integration of knowledge across disciplines, players (including media, insurers),
perspectives and sources (indigenous, local, expert)
•
treatment of language and contributions from literature and other humanities
scholarship and practice
•
importance of processes of engagement, and relationship/trust-building relative
to the specific forecast, product, or recommendation
•
tailoring information and methods to audiences and their
contexts/situations/technical capacities/preferences
•
communities as a focus of investigation and target of communication
•
role of insurance and insurers
•
ethical aspects and issues
Activities
Understanding the societal and economic dimensions of weather-related
warning systems: A SERA Research Demonstration Project (RDP)
• draft research and application framework is in development and will be finalized
for presentation at the next WWRP JSC meeting (2013)
• draft will include an overview scan of current NMHS warning systems
(coordination with PWS, DRR)
• specific studies will be identified and developed within the framework taking
advantage of new and on-going WMO-sanctioned, IRDR, and NMHS projects (e.g.,
SWFDPs; JCOMM/CHy Coastal Inundation FDP; MeteoAlarm; South African Flood Forecast Guidance
(SAFFG) Project; impact forecasting projects; La Plata Basin proposed RDP; Integrated Nowcasting for
Central Europe Area (INCA-CE) project; IRDR forensic case studies) (2013-2015)
Design and
construction
Consequences and
evaluation
Communication and
use in decisionmaking
Activities
Projects/activities with THORPEX
• SERA efforts in the sub-seasonal and polar prediction activities will be a primary
means of contributing to the renewed Thorpex programme
• Summer School NSF proposal (Shapiro and Tribbia)
• Members involved in RC activities (e.g., K. Anaman, Africa; B. Mills, NARC)
• Analysis of TIGGE-based early warning system prototype developed by Matsueda
et al. [http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/index.html] with regional disaster loss data
is a potential candidate study that could also contribute to SERA RDP plans and a
joint project with JWGFVR (societal and traditional verification)
• Potential for a Thorpex Benefit Assessment as an objective complement to the
Progress and/or Review reporting exercise
Planned Meetings
•
IRDR Risk Interpretation and Action (RIA) meeting (China, November
2012)
•
Fourth WWRP-SERA WG meeting, Canada (tbd, October/November
2013)
•
Social Science for Weather Prediction training workshop (tbd, 2013-14)
•
WWRP Open Science Conference (August 2014)
Expected role for SERA in final
stages/renewal of Thorpex?
• Justification for past and planned investments
• Complementary role in the selection, design, testing, implementation
and evaluation of system changes/improvements (publication quantity and quality;
standard verification procedures; simple measures of public use, awareness, satisfaction)
• Advancement of broader social science theory, conceptualization, and
analytical methods
Across and between disciplines