Transcript WMO Statement on the Status of Global Climate (WSSGC)

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WMO Statement on the Status
of Global Climate (WSSGC)
By
Omar Baddour
Observing and Information System Department
World Meteorological Organisation
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Topics addressed in the WSSGC
Example of 2010
Key Challenges
Improving WMO CSM
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WMO Statement on the Status
of Global Climate (WSSGC)
•Part of WCP activity (WCDMP) …Provision of an authoritative
annual assessment of the global climate
• CCl initiative since 1993
• Based on annual climate assessment at Global, Regional and
National levels, with increasing WMO Members contribution
• Scientific coordination by a seconded expert from WMO Members
(rotating from the 6 regions)
• Secretariat Coordination (OBS-WIS/ DMA)
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Topics addressed by the WSSGC
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1- Global Surface Temperature Monitoring
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• Annual Global Surface
Temperature Anomaly
w.r.t 1961-1990 global
average ( 14°C, 57.2 °F)
UK (HadCRUT3)
NOAA( NCDC)
NASA (GISS)
• Annual Global Temperature
Ranking
1850
1900
2000
1950
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2- Regional Temperatures
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3- Extreme events
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• Heat Waves
• Cold Waves
• Extreme precipitations
• Flooding and flash floods
• Drought
• Wind storms
• Tropical cyclones
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4- Other climate features
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• Global Precipitations
(GPCC, DWD)
• Sea Ice (NSIDC, USA)
• Ozone (GAW, WMO)
Sea Ice
September
2007
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2010
2010 warmest year on record
Mean of three data sets anomaly +0.53°C (2005 +0.52, 1998 +0.51)
Ranks 1 in GISS data, 1= in NCDC, 2 in HadCRU
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Regional temperature variations in 2010
Warmest year on record for Africa (+1.29°C,
previous record +0.94 in 2009)
Also warmest on record in south/southwest
Asia and Greenland/Arctic Canada region
Warmest year on record for Canada, India,
Turkey
Warmest summer on record for Europe and Asia
Coldest year since 1996 for northern Europe,
since mid-1980s for some countries (UK, Ireland,
Norway, Finland)
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2001-10 clearly warmest decade on record
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2.5
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1.5
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0
-0.5
-1.5
-1
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2010
2010
1980
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1910
2000
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2.5
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1.5
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-0.5
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Greenland/Arctic Canada region
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1980
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Central Asian region
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-0.5
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Saharan/Arabian region
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1910
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2010
Temperature anomaly (deg C)
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
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1940
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1900
Temperature anomaly (deg C)
2.5
2010
Temperature anomaly (deg C)
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
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1910
1900
Temperature anomaly (deg C)
Rapid recent warming in some regions
East African region
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1.5
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0.5
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-1
-1.5
2001-10 mean 0.7 to 0.9°C warmer than any previous decade in all four regions
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Rainfall patterns in 2010
Very wet in Indonesia, eastern Australia, central/eastern Europe, Pakistan/western India,
Colombia/Venezuela
Rather wet in Sahel, south China
Dry in Amazon region
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Transition from El Niño to La Niña
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Very hot summer in Russia, elsewhere
in eastern Europe
Russia temperature anomalies,
July 2010
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Extreme rainfall in Pakistan leads
to record flooding
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Winter 2009/10 – cold in northern Europe
and the U.S., warm in Canada and Arctic
Sources: DWD, Environment Canada, U.S. High
Plains Regional Climate Center
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December 2010 – very cold in northern Europe and
Asia, very warm in Canada/Greenland
Again exceptional negative phase of Arctic Oscillation
Monthly anomalies as high as +14°C in NE Canada, as low as
-10°C in Norway and Sweden
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Low July-September rainfall in the Amazon basin
Source: INMET (Brazil)
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Very wet year in eastern Australia
2nd wettest year on record for Australia, wettest for eastern states
Driest year on record for SW Australia
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Arctic sea ice
3rd lowest summer minimum,
slowest autumn freeze-up
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Key Challenges
• Ensure collaboration of all Members in providing
timely input
• Set standard template procedures and mechanism
for Members contribution
• Ensure precise, timely and regular input
• Establish RCCs in all regions (remaining RA-III,
IV and V)
• What Reference periods for which purpose
• Putting the context of climate change
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Improving WMO CSM
• Provision of guidelines on methodologies and standards for defining extreme
weather and climate events that are of major societal impacts and assessing
their attribution and return periods (CCl-XV)
• Work on improving WMO Climate System Monitoring including real-time
identification of extreme weather, methodologies and datasets for assessing
climate trends and variations; and dissemination mechanism for timely
informing on extreme weather and climate events (CCl XV)
• EC-LXII requested CCl to develop guidelines with appropriate formats and
suitable mechanisms for the Members to follow when submitting their national
contributions to the WMO annual statement on the Global Climate.
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CCl Task Teams for CSM
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CCl-Task Team
on extreme climate events
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Ren Fumen (China) (Lead)
Pattanaik Dushmenda (India) (Co-Lead)
Randall Cerveny (USA)
Blair Trewin (Asutralia)
Boris Sherstyukov (Russia)
Jurq Rapp (Germany)
Diallo Aissatou (Guinea)
CCl-Task Team
on National Climate Monitoring Products
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John Kennedy (UK) (Lead)
Ladislaus B. Chang'a (Tanzania) (Co-lead)
Andrew Watkins (Australia)
Xiaolan Wang (Canada)
Olga Bulygina (Russia)
Mesut Demircan (Turkey)
Raj Booneeday (Mauritius)
Mohamed Semawi (Jordan)
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Strengthening International collaboration
on Climate Monitoring
CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices
ET- CCDI
– Provide International Coordination for Climate change detection and climate indices
– Develop tools and material including software to calculate indices
– Organize regional Training Workshops
– Peer reviewed publications for contribution to the IPCC assessment reports
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Congo Workshop, Brazzaville, April 2007
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Training Workshop on Statistical Analysis of Climate
Extremes January 17th – 21th of 2010, Guayaquil Ecuador
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Climate Watch Systems
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- To monitor climate anomalies
and related extremes
- To produce and disseminate
climate advisories (climate alert
bulletins) on significant ongoing
or foreseen climate anomalies
- To heighten awareness among
relevant users to initiate
preparedness measures
- To interact with the users prior,
during and after the Alert episode
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3 Workshops: 2008-2010
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2010
2009
2008
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THANK YOU
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