Transcript ppt - WMO

World Meteorological Organization
WMO OMM
Working together in weather, climate and water
Climate Applications & Services
World Climate Applications & Services Division
Climate Prediction & Adaptation Branch
Climate & Water Department
WMO ● Climate & Water Department
www.wmo.int
Towards Improved Societal Response and
Sustainable Development
WMO OMM
• Relevant climate information is expected to improve policy
and decision-making
–
–
–
–
Climate data
Climate analysis and monitoring capabilities
User-targeted climate prediction/information products
Climate risk modelling tools – Critical for decision making
• There is significant diversity in demand and supply of climate
information at national level
– Needs and requirements of the users related to policy and
decision-making
– Needs, requirements and capabilities of providers
2
WMO OMM
WCASP Objectives
• Development of user-targeted climate services
• Services for sustainable development at national, regional
and global levels
• Contribute to strategies for adapting to, and mitigating, the
adverse impacts of climate and its variations
• Increased user awareness and liaison
• Partnership with national/international agencies dealing with
application sectors
• Development of practical methods and techniques including
climate prediction products
• Implementation through CLIPS Project
3
WMO OMM
New developmental needs and associated
Climate service needs have emerged
• Climate can be viewed as a risk and also as a resource;
• Assessment of Climate Change and Variability with a regional focus;
• Identification of key vulnerabilities (impact databases, current and
future frequency of extremes, …);
• Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (SIP) and regional climate outlooks;
• Future climate scenarios;
• Downscaling of SIP and climate scenarios;
• Climate-related risk management:
– Applications of climate products in decision-making;
– Interpretation and use of probabilistic products;
– Climate derivative products.
• A high level of interdisciplinary knowledge is required for the
development of climate products including assessment of uncertainties
4
WMO OMM
Value of Climate Information and
Services to Society
• the nature of the dependence of socio-economic activities on
climatic factors
• reliability of climate products including awareness of the
associated uncertainties and their implications to decisionmaking
• accessibility of credible and useful climate information for
decision making
• liaison between users and climate information providers
• the ability of users to act on the basis of climate information
5
WMO OMM
Climate Services
• The term “climate services” refers to the delivery of climate information
and predictions from the scientific sources to end-users
• A service is a service only when it is used; our goal is to make people
use climate services in real-world context
• Climate information is just one of the elements in the decision making
matrix
• Databases of information gathered over many years; NMHSs have
great potential to exploit these resources to provide “effective” climate
services
• Predictions of climate variability over the next season or two (seasonal
to interannual forecasts) are of immediate relevance
6
WMO OMM
The Espoo Conference
• Reviewed opportunities and constraints in integrating climate risks and
uncertainties into the mainstreams of decision-making where sensitivity
to climate variability and change is but one among many factors to
consider.
• The focus was on risk assessment and decision-processes in real-world
contexts, including
–
–
–
–
–
agriculture and food security
water resource management
human health and disease control
energy and built environment
disaster preparedness and early warning systems
7
Climate-related Risk Management
WMO OMM
• Works best if it is:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
driven by the needs and requirements expressed by relevant decision sectors
developed within real-world decision contexts
enabled through facilitating institutions and policies
based on environmental, sectoral and socioeconomic data
based on tailored climate information
supported by local capacity
included in planning strategies that incorporate incentives
supported by sector-specific services from National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services and related institutions.
Extracted from Espoo Statement
8
WMO OMM
Heat Waves and Health Warning Systems
•
•
•
Reduce mortality and morbidity associated with lifethreatening heatwaves
Strengthen WMO/NMHS partnerships with health
and social services (global, regional, national) for
effective service delivery – Met forecasts alone are
insufficient
Develop Guidance on and tools for:
• early warning and detection of health effects of
extreme weather/ heat-waves;
• national/local preparedness planning for extreme
heat events;
• public/media outreach;
• interventions to save lives.
9
WMO OMM
Climate and Energy
• Promote use of climate data and services to support
design, construction, planning and operation of their
energy systems (renewable and traditional), with the
associated benefits in efficiency, cost reduction, and
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
• New Technical Note under development by CCl on
‘Weather and Climate Aspects of Renewable Energy:
Solar and Wind’.
10
WMO OMM
Climate Variability and Change:
Issues for Tourism
• Climate has a high priority in the choice of tourist destinations
• Climate hazards threaten the infrastructure, the people, the financial
networks and the ecosystems that underpin the success of the sector
• Possible increase in climate-related risks associated with climate
change is a matter of concern to the sector
• Identifying windows of opportunity can contribute to growth of the
sector and help optimize the use of climate as a resource
• Tourism has potential impacts on climate, biodiversity, pollution, water
resources which need to be understood to plan its sustainable growth
11
WMO OMM
Urban and Building Climatology
• New Technical Notes on Building Climatology and
Urban Climatology under development by CCl Expert
Team
• Approach to developing building climatology:
– Stage 1: Produce a basic regional climatology
– Stage 2: Produce a local urban climatology
– Stage 3: Provide micro climatic advice
• Urban climatology and its relevance to urban design
12
WMO OMM
CCl OPAG on CLIPS
• Research Needs
• Guides to Best Practices
– Operations
– Verification
– User Liaison
• ENSO Communication
13
WMO OMM
•
•
Global Producing Centres of LRF
In 2006, nine centres making global seasonal forecasts were designated as WMO
Global Producing Centres (GPCs)
GPCs adhere to defined standards – aiding consistency and usability of output:
– a fixed forecast production cycle
– a standard set of forecast products
– WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts)
•
•
•
GPCs designated: Beijing, ECMWF, Exeter, Melbourne, Montreal, Moscow (pending),
Seoul, Tokyo, Toulouse, Washington
Access to all GPCs can be found through WMO page:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html
A comprehensive set of standard verification measures, with which to communicate
the skill of forecasts, has been defined (the WMO Standard Verification System for
Long-Range Forecasts – SVSLRF)
14
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
WMO OMM
• RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by CBS and CCl, to
perform regional-scale climate functions, including:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring
Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the region
Data services
Climate Applications
Training and capacity building
Research and Development
• RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs, which will
deliver all Warnings and national-scale products
• Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by Regional Associations,
based on regional needs and priorities
• RAs will ensure guidance for and coordination between RCCs
15
WMO OMM
RCCs and climate prediction
• GPC global products essential input to RCCs
• RCCs will downscale and develop regional-scale prediction
products
• RCCs will serve NMHSs, all latitudes/regions
• End-users are sectoral experts, governments, the public
• Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) would provide
an outreach arm to the GPC/RCC operations, to engage
regional climate/user communities and building networks of
communities sharing common climate problems, particularly
among developing countries.
16
Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
WMO OMM
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
A component of CLIPS
First established in 1996: Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.
Regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of climate forecasts and
outlooks
Bring together providers of and users of SIPs.
RCOFs constitute an important vehicle in developing regions for providing advance
information on the likely climate features of the upcoming season, and for developing
a consensus product from amongst the multiple available individual predictions.
RCOFs stimulate the development of climate capacity in the NMHSs of the area, and
do much to generate decisions and activities that mitigate adverse impacts of climate
and help communities adapt to climate variability.
Global review of RCOFs: November 2008, Arusha, Tanzania.
17
WMO OMM
Existing RCOFs worldwide
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/outlooks/climate_forecasts.html)
18
WMO OMM
Global Climate Prediction Framework
Global Producing Centres
(GPCs) and
Lead Centres
Regional
Climate
Centres
(RCCs)
NMHSs
National
Users
Global and Regional
Users
19
WMO OMM
WMO Initiative to Support Climate Change
Adaptation
• Endorsed by WMO Executive
Council in June 2008.
• Mission: To facilitate provision of
user oriented climate
information, products,
advisories and services to
support national and regional
climate risk assessment, climate
adaptation planning and
implementation practices for
sustainable development
20
WMO OMM
•
•
•
•
•
Objectives
Facilitate use of climate information for
mainstreaming climate risks in
decision making
Make available data and information
for developing adaptation strategies
and integrating them in national
development agenda
Enhance the national capacities in
provision of user-oriented climate
information
Help develop regional capacities
Support the scientific foundation for
climate adaptation strategies
21
O
U
T
P
U
T
S
WMO OMM
Climate
Information
I
N
I
T
I
A
T
I
V
E
Climate
Outlooks
Climate
Risk Assessment
Climate Information
for Adaptation
Climate
Monitoring
Climate Scenarios
Early
Warnings
Capacity
Building
User Specific Sectoral
Advisory Services
Data bases
Climate Predictions
Feedback
Observations
Research
22
WMO OMM
A·P·P·L·I·C·A·T·I·O·N·S
Climate Information
and Products
Regional
Climate Centres
Climate
Outlooks
Regional Climate
Outlook Forums
Climate Risks
Assessment
National Hydro-met
Services
Early
Warnings
User
Forums
WMO Initiative to Support
Climate Change
Adaptation
23
WMO OMM
•
Concluding Remarks
In many regions, there is limited use of climate information for decision making within
climate-sensitive sectors. It is important to find ways for all countries to cope with
climate variability through improved access to climate information and prediction
products and the use of risk management techniques.
– Location-specific information crucial; downscaling
– Sector-specific climate indices (ETCCDI approach through partnerships with
stakeholders)
– Ownership
– Observations to support regional/national vulnerability assessments as well as
development and validation of modelling tools to support decision making
•
•
GPC-RCC-RCOF-NMHS climate prediction framework will need strong observational
support and user participation to be effective.
The WMO Initiative to Support Climate Change Adaptation aims to tap into
complementary efforts under different programmes, including GCOS, to meet the
user needs.
24