Transcript SEECOF - INFORMAL CONFERENCE OF SOUTH

World Meteorological Organization
WMO OMM
Working together in weather, climate and water
ICEED/10, 21-22 September 2010
TSMS, Istanbul, Turkey
South-eastern Europe Climate Outlook
Forum (SEECOF)
Background and Operational Strategy
Dimitar Ivanov, Chief WMO Regional Office for Europe
WMO ● DRA ● ROE (www.wmo.int/dra/eur)
www.wmo.int
Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOF)
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• A major component of WMO Climate Information and
Prediction Services (CLIPS) project activities
• First established in 1996 at a Meeting in Victoria Falls,
Zimbabwe
• Gained momentum as a regional response to the major
1997–1998 El Niño event
• RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread
worldwide
• WMO and a number of national, regional and international
organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank,
European Commission, etc.) have supported the growth and
expansion of the RCOFs
Existing RCOFs worldwide
WMO OMM
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/outlooks/climate_forecasts.html),
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RCOF Concept
• RCOFs have the task to produce and disseminate a regional
assessment (using a predominantly consensus-based
approach) of the state of the regional climate for the coming
season
• Built into the RCOF process is a regional networking of the
climate service providers and user-sector representatives
• National and Regional capacities are different but certainly
inadequate to face the task alone
• Ownership lies largely with national and regional players, but
there is a continuing need for support at all levels to ensure
that the momentum gained to date is maintained
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RCOF Concept
• RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on
an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on input
from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and
Global Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) and other climate
prediction centres
• Through interaction with sectoral users and policy makers, RCOFs assess the
likely implications of the outlooks on the most pertinent socio-economic
sectors in the given region and explore the ways in which these outlooks
could be used
• RCOFs also review obstacles in the use of climate information, experiences
and successful lessons regarding applications of the past RCOF products,
that help to enhance sector-specific applications
• The RCOFs are supplemented by national forums to develop detailed
national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for
communication to decision-makers and the public
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Climate Change and RCOFs
• RCOFs have been set up so far with the main focus on
seasonal prediction
• However, the same RCOF mechanism can be effectively
expanded to cater to the needs of developing and
disseminating regional climate change information products
• Such initiatives are already being taken up by some RCOFs
(e.g., Greater Horn of Africa)
• Regional assessments of observed and projected climate
change, including the development of downscaled climate
change scenario products for impact assessments, can be
included in the product portfolio of RCOFs
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Climate Change and RCOFs
• RCOFs have been recognized to have potential
contributions to the UNFCCC/SBSTA Nairobi Work
Programme (NWP) on Adaptation to Climate Change
• CLIPS/RCOFs have been included in the UNFCCC
Compendium of Methods and Tools in support of
climate adaptation
• RCOFs form a core component of WMO Action
Pledge to the NWP on climate information, products
and services for adaptation
WMO OMM
Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook
Forum (SEECOF)
• First RCOF in Europe
• The countries that participated
in SEECOF-1 were: Hungary,
Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia,
Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania,
FYR Macedonia, Greece,
Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania,
Moldova, Armenia, Georgia,
and Azerbaijan (total 16)
• Cyprus and Israel joined
SEECOF-2
WMO OMM
SEECOF-1
Zagreb, Croatia, 11-12 June 2008
Organized by World Meteorological Organization
Co-sponsored by:
The World Bank
DHMZ, Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
MeteoSwiss
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
ARSO, Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia
http://meteo.hr/SEECOF08/programme_presentations.html
www.meteoswiss.ch
SEECOF-1 Participants
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• Altogether 80 participants from 21 countries, including:
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Representatives of the Croatian Government and EU Presidency
International Organizations (WB, UNDP, WMO)
4 Permanent Representatives with WMO
9 International experts
Climate experts from SEECOF countries
20 representatives of user sectors of climate information from 5
SEECOF countries and various economic sectors (agriculture,
water management, energy, environment, civil protection,
transportation and media).
SEECOF-1 Consensus Seasonal Outlook
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• Since the 1980s, summers in the South-Eastern European (SEE)
region have frequently been hotter than in previous decades. The 2008
summer season is likely to be more similar to some of the hot
summers of recent decades than to those of the generally cooler
1960s and 1970s. A hot summer brings risk of heat waves and their
associated impacts, but given the information available it is not
possible at this stage to make any specific statement about the risk of
heat waves in 2008.
• Unlike temperatures, there have been no region-wide trends in
summer rainfall in SEE. There is currently little agreement among
available predictions of summer rainfall for 2008, but there is some
suggestion that the eastern part of the region will be drier than
average, while the western part will be wetter than average.
XV-RA VI decisions on RCOF
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Excerpt from XV RA VI Report:
“4.2.4.2 The Association noted with deep appreciation that the Regional Climate Outlook Forum
(RCOF) process has been initiated in the Region, with the organization of SEECOF-1 in Zagreb,
Croatia, from 11 to 12 June 2008. The Association thanked the World Bank for its sponsorship of the
event and the NMHSs of Croatia, Switzerland, Germany and Slovenia for their co-sponsorship and
technical/logistic support. The Association agreed that the RA VI RCOF efforts need to be sustained
in the longer term as required, and urged the Drought Management Centre for South-eastern
Europe (DMCSEE), South-east European Virtual Climate Change Centre (SEEVCCC) and Members
in the sub-region to continue further their support to the SEECOF process.
4.2.4.3 Noting with appreciation the WMO WCRP IPY Workshop on CLIPS in Polar Regions (St.
Petersburg, Russian Federation, 8-11 September 2008), and the agreement to work towards the
establishment of a Polar Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF), the Association urged all Members with
interests in the Polar Regions to actively contribute to the relevant efforts to identify the priority user
requirements for climate information in these regions.”
XV-RA VI decisions on RCOF
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XV-RA VI established the WG on Climate and Hydrology (WG-CH)
WG-CH will coordinate the RCOF developments in RA VI based on its ToRs:
To facilitate the implementation of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum mechanism in the
Region;
Task Team on RCOF:
Dmitry Kiktev
Mattew Collins
Roxana Bojariu
Ernesto Rodriguez
Branko Bijelic
Russian Federation
United Kingdom
Romania
Spain
Serbia
WMO OMM
SEECOF-2
Budapest, Hungary, 23-27 Nov 2009
Organized by World Meteorological Organization
Sponsored by
European Commission, DG Enlargement
(through the DRR/SEE Project)
Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ)
http://www.met.hu/pages/seminars/seecof2/
WMO OMM
SEECOF-2
• 29 participants from 15 countries
• Organized as two-stage event:
– Part A: Pre-COF Capacity Building and Consensus Outlook
Generation, 23-25/11/2009
– Part B: SEECOF-2 Session, Consensus Outlook Issue and User
Interaction 26-27/11/2009
• In the capacity building part the participating climate experts
were trained in using, interpreting and downscaling global
seasonal prediction products, and in developing a consensus
outlook
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SEECOF-2
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SEECOF-3
on-line forum, May 2010
The first on-line COF
Organized by World Meteorological Organization
RA VI WG-CH
Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMS)
SEE Virtual Climate Change Centre (SEEVCCC)
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dra/eur/SEECOF-3.php
http://www.seevccc.rs/forum/
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SEECOF-3
• SEECOF-3 was the first COF conducted through electronic
exchange between climate experts from South-East Europe
with the support of experts from leading climate centres
• SEECOF-3 focused on the Summer season (June, July,
August) of 2010
• The on-line collaboration involved three steps with target
date for preparing of the consensus statement is 28 May
2010
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SEECOF-3
• Step 1 - qualitative verification of the SEECOF-2 Winter
forecast (December 2009 – February 2010)
• Step 2 - assessment of the current state of the climate
including large-scale climate patterns worldwide and
assessments of its likely evolution in the course of the next
months.
• Step 3 - building the consensus outlook for the Summer
2010
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SEECOF-3
• Highly successful event conducted in the most efficient
manner
• Proved the viability of the on-line method for the COF
through exchange of e-mails, on-line forum, special website
• Large participation – 18 countries
• Excellent moderation by the Co-chair of WG-CH, SEEVCCC
experts, resource persons from Meteo-France and
Roshydromet
• On the down side – no training session; no interaction with
the users
WMO OMM
SEECOF-3
WMO OMM
SEECOF-4
• Tentatively scheduled for 23 – 30 November 2010
• Hosted in Belgrade by RHMS Serbia
• Strong capacity-building component – 5-days training for
climate experts
• Interaction with users and outreach
• Financing – through the DRR/SEE Project (adjustment to the
project budget submitted to EC for approval)
• Participation by all ICEED members strongly encouraged
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SEECOF and Climate Change
• Moving towards a future consensus on regional
climate change over SEE
• Individual results vary, but some common signals are
apparent:
– Warming
– Increase in the frequency of extreme climate events
– Drier climate in summer
WMO OMM
SEECOF and Climate Change
• SEECOF noted that several attempts have been made to
develop regional climate change scenarios for SEE, but that
there is considerable diversity in approaches.
• SEECOF processes can play a crucial role in promoting a
collaborative and complementary approach, thereby
facilitating consensus and consistency in generating climate
change information in support of climate adaptation.
• SEECOF promotes regional ownership of climate
knowledgebase, and supports region-driven climate change
actions.
WMO OMM
SEECOF Operational Strategy
• Regular holding of SEECOF sessions
• Local ownership and sustained networking
– A regional mechanism to coordinate SEECOF
• Links to GPCs and RCCs
• Consensus on the most effective timing of SEECOF and its operational
products (seasonal rainfall ?)
• More stakeholder involvement (users, policymakers, media)
• WMO/RA VI guidance and support
• Capacity building/Pre-COF sessions
• The key to progress is to keep doing it
• Optimize resource utilization : explore cost-effective ways
World Meteorological Organization
WMO OMM
Working together in weather, climate and water
Thank You
WMO ● DRA ● ROE (www.wmo.int/dra/eur)
www.wmo.int