Transcript Update on the US Climate Change Science Program

Update on the
U.S. Climate Change Science Program
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Subsidiary Body Meeting
June 21, 2004
Linda V. Moodie
Senior Advisor
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
BACKGROUND
U.S. Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP) – History

U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP):
1990

President Bush announced Climate Change
Research Initiative (CCRI) and Climate Change
Technology Initiative (CCTI) – June 11, 2001

President Bush announced new cabinet-level
management responsibilities for climate science and
technology programs – February 14, 2002

CCSP to integrate USGCRP and CCRI – June 2002
CCSP Management and Coordination

13 Federal Agencies and Departments
coordinate their activities through the Climate
Change Science Program (CCSP)

CCSP works with university-based and Federal
scientists

Close coordination with energy technology
programs
Management Mechanisms:
How CCSP Agencies Work Together

Executive direction by cabinet-based management,
including priority setting, review, and accountability

Implementation by CCSP agencies

Coordination through interagency working groups

External interactions for guidance, evaluation, and
feedback

Support from interagency CCSP Office

Ongoing activities: budget coordination update and use
of strategic plan in Agency planning
UPDATE
CCSP Milestones
NOV 2002 Discussion Draft of CCSP Strategic Plan
DEC 2002 CCSP Planning Workshop for Scientists and
Stakeholders
JAN 2003
Written comments received from scientific and user
communities
FEB 2003
NRC report, Planning Climate and Global Change
Research: A Review of the Draft U.S. Climate
Change Science Program Strategic Plan
JULY 2003 Publication of the (revised) Strategic Plan for the U.S.
Climate Change Science Program
FEB 2004
NRC report, Implementing Climate and Global Change
Research: A Review of the Final U.S. Climate
Change Science Program Strategic Plan
Strategic Plan for the
U.S. Climate Change Science Program
Based on:
 Previous planning efforts
(e.g., Pathways and other
NRC reports)
 Comments during workshop
(1300 participants)
 270 sets of comments during
an open comment period
 Reviews by the NAS-NRC
 Government review
National Research Council
Review on (final) CCSP Strategic Plan




“The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program articulates
a guiding vision, is appropriately ambitious, and is broad in scope.”
“In fact, the approaches taken by the CCSP to receive and respond to
comments from a large and broad group of scientists and stakeholders,
including a two-stage independent review of the plan, set a high standard for
government research programs.”
“As a result, the revised strategic plan is much improved over its November
2002 draft, and now includes the elements of a strategic management
framework that could permit it to effectively guide research on climate and
associated global changes over the next decades.”
“The plan addresses much of the critical science in a strategic framework that
places the research it proposes in the context of national needs.”
CCSP Strategy Includes:

Five overarching climate-focused goals
with related long-term research foci and
near-term deliverables (21 “Synthesis and
Assessment Products”)

Four key approaches




Research in 7 core science elements
Observations and Data Management
Decision support
Communications
CCSP Goals Will Integrate Information from
USGCRP and CCRI on Climate Change
CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present
climate and environment, including their natural variability, and
improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and
change
CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about
changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems
CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s
climate and related systems may change in the future
CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different
natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and
related global changes
CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving
knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate
variability and change
CCSP Will Continue Long-term DiscoveryDriven and “Applied” Research (USGCRP)

Atmospheric Composition

Climate Variability and Change

Global Water Cycle

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

Global Carbon Cycle

Ecosystems

Human Contributions and Responses to
Environmental Change
Current CCSP Activities

Overall emphasis moving from planning to implementation

The strategic plan has established priorities that are
influencing ongoing planning and budgeting decisions by all
thirteen collaborating agencies (e.g., aerosols, new
observation and data management plans)

CCSP identified agency leads and agency budget requests
for the 21 synthesis and assessment products to be delivered
within 2 to 4 years

Interagency Working Groups active or planned

Coordination, outreach, and other communications activities
underway
Purpose of CCSP Synthesis and
Assessment (S&A) Products

Convey the most up-to-date information
available, drawing on the evolving body of climate
and global change research

Address the full range of scientific issues, from
past/present conditions to evaluation of options
for response

Evaluate and report on levels of confidence
Update on S&A Products

Reviewing comments from public review of the
Guidelines for developing S&A products

9 of the 21 products are due within 2 years (end
of Fiscal Year 2005)

Product prospectus and reports will be posted for
public comment on the CCSP website prior to
release of final product
Product
Number
The Nine Near Term (within two years) Synthesis and Assessment
Products
1.1
Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—steps for understanding and reconciling
differences.
1.2
Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes.
2.1
Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with the
CCTP. Review of integrated scenario development and application.
2.2
North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle.
3.1
Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty
analysis.
4.1
Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise.
5.1
Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision-support
for selected sectors and regions.
5.2
Best-practice approaches to characterize, communicate, and incorporate scientific uncertainty
in decision making.
5.3
Decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to inter-annual forecasts and
observational data.
Next Steps in Program Development

Continue efforts to produce the near-term CCSP
deliverables

Synthesis and assessment reports are an important but
not exclusive focus

CCSP and CCTP have pledged to work in close
collaboration to develop and analyze emission scenarios
in terms of technologies, costs and climate/ecosystem
consequences

Annual implementation for research elements and other
cross-cutting areas
Challenges Ahead for CCSP

As always, the budget process

Scientific prioritization for the government and
each individual agency

Maintaining credibility

Maintaining interaction with the scientific and
international communities, as well as
stakeholders

Deliver the best possible science to inform
decision makers