Transcript Strategic Plan for the US Climate Change Science Program

Making Climate Science Relevant
to Decisionmaking
Richard H. Moss, Ph.D.
Climate Change Science Program Office (Director)
and Joint Global Change Research Institute
Overview of This Presentation
• Definitions and motivation for CCSP “decision
support”
• Key science-related “policy” issues:
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What is the current state of the climate system?
How are human activities affecting climate?
How might climate evolve in the future?
What impacts might we expect from climate change?
• How are climate research and technology
development supported in the United States?
• CCSP decision support structure and challenges
Decision Support: Definition of
Key Terms
• Decision support resources
– Analyses, methods, models/data, operational services, and other
tools that provide useful information to address policy, resource
management, and other issues
• Policy decisions
– Decisions made in government settings that result in laws,
regulations, and other public actions
• Adaptive management decisions
– Operational decisions for infrastructure, resources, and response
mechanisms (e.g., health alerts)
• Scenario
– A coherent statement of a potential future situation that can serve
as an input to more detailed analysis or modeling
Motivation for Decision
Support
• The Global Change Research Act (1990) directs the USGCRP to
“produce information readily usable by policymakers attempting to
formulate effective strategies for preventing, mitigating, and adapting to
the effects of global change,” and to undertake periodic assessments
• President Bush, citing the NRC’s 2001 study (“An Analysis of Key
Questions”), called for development of decision support resources in
June 2001
– “…the National Academy of Sciences study also recommends, ‘research
that couples physical, chemical, biological and human systems; improved
capability of integrating scientific knowledge, including its uncertainty, into
effective decision support systems; and an ability to conduct research at
the regional or sectoral level that promotes analysis of the response of
human and natural systems to multiple stresses.’”
White House document accompanying the
President’s June 11, 2001 Statement on Climate Change
• CCRI, which is managed with USGCRP under CCSP, included
emphasis on decision support
What are some of the key
science-related “policy” issues
defined by the Administration?
1. What is the Current State of
the Climate System?
The climate system is complex and is regulated by interactions
and “feedbacks” across many different components.
Climate Change Has Been Observed
• Global mean
temperature increased
by 0.6 ± 0.2°C.
• 1990’s warmest decade,
1998 warmest year in
the instrumental record
(1861-2000)
• Degree of confidence
higher today but:
• Natural variability
• Model limitations
• Proxy record “errors”
• Inconsistent records
2. How Are Human Activities Affecting
the Climate System ?
Humans have changed
concentrations of GHGs
• Atmospheric CO2 has
increased by 30% since 1750
• Methane has increased by
150%
• Increase due to combustion
of fossil fuels, land-use
changes, and agriculture
• Humans also contribute to
aerosols concentrations
(sulfate and black carbon)
Can Climate Change Be
Attributed to Human Activities?
• Compare observed
changes to historicallyforce model simulations
• Models simulate past
changes most closely
when forcing includes
natural and human
factors (e.g., GHG and
aerosol emissions)
3. How Might Climate Evolve
in the Future?
Climate Change Projections
Depend on …
• Human driving forces—emissions
and land use/cover change
(population, economics, …)
• Emissions to concentrations—
role of carbon cycle uncertainties
• Concentrations to radiative
forcing—aerosol uncertainties
• Radiative forcing to climate
response—uncertainty in climate
sensitivity
Current Projections Show…
• Increase in global average
surface temperatures
(1.4-5.8º C by 2100)
• Rise of sea level (9-88 cm
higher in 2100)
• Projected changes for the
21st century are larger
than those that have
already occurred
• Further changes will take
place to reach equilibrium
• Figure depicts additional
changes and level of
certainty
Modeling Challenges
• Uncertainties in modeling key
feedback processes (clouds,
water vapor, ice, aerosols)
• Improve skill at regional
climate forecasting
• Improve modeling of extreme
events
• Assess potential for abrupt
changes, which are seen in
paleo records (i.e. ocean
thermohaline circulation)
4. What Impacts Might We
Expect from Climate Change?
• Impacts will depend on the magnitude, rate, and
regional distribution of change
• Assessing impacts of climate change is difficult:
– the lack of reliable local or regional detail in climate
projections, especially for extreme events;
– uncertain interactions of multiple stresses (e.g., landuse change and local pollution)
– uncertainty in how much ingenuity and commitment
societies show in responding to potential impacts
– balancing “positive” and “negative” effects
– choice of “numeraire” for counting impacts
Observed Changes in Regional Climates Have
Already Affected Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems
• Average growing season longer
• Ranges of some species of plants,
insects, birds, and fish shifted
poleward and upward in elevation
• Earlier flowering in some plants
• Increased frequency of coral
bleaching
Potential Impacts for North
America
• Ecosystems are especially
vulnerable
• Widespread water concerns
arise
• Food supply is secure
• Near-term forest growth
increases
• Increased damage occurs in
coastal and permafrost areas
• Adaptation determines health
outcomes
• Uncertainties remain and
surprises are expected
Source: US Climate Action Report**
How Are Climate Research and Technology
Development Supported in the U.S.?
• 13 Federal Agencies/
Departments coordinate
their activities through
the Climate Change
Science Program
(CCSP)
• Close coordination with
energy technology
programs
Strategic Plan for the
U.S. Climate Change Science Program
Strategic Plan based on:
• Comments during workshop
(1300 participants)
• 270 sets of comments during
an open comment period
• Review by the NRC
• Government review
Vision for the CCSP
A nation and the global
community empowered
with the science-based
knowledge to manage
the risks and
opportunities of change
in the climate and
related environmental
systems
CCSP Mission
Facilitate the creation and application of
knowledge of the Earth’s global
environment through research,
observations, decision support, and
communication
CCSP Strategy Includes:
• Five goals with long-term research foci and shortterm products
• Basic research in 7 core science elements, with
accelerated focus on key uncertainties (aerosols,
feedbacks, carbon)
• Observations (accelerate additional observations
and protect threatened series)
• Decision support (1. reports; 2. support for
adaptive management; and 3. national policy—
e.g., energy options)
• Communications (transparency, accountability,
and new products)
• Better understanding of long term natural cycles in climate
• Understand climate extremes
• Expand observations/data capabilities
• Improve capabilities to
forecast seasonal to
interannual cycles of
variability
• Increase confidence in
understanding how and why
climate has changed
• Reduce uncertainty in sources and sinks of GHG’s, aerosols
• Monitor ozone layer recovery and climate-ozone interactions
• Understand interactions
among pollutant emissions,
atmospheric transport, and
air quality
• Improve quantification of net
emissions of GHG’s
• Improve capabilities for
conducting “If…,then…”
analysis
• Characterization of circulation of oceans and atmosphere
• Improve understanding of key “feedbacks” (i.e. water vapor)
• Understand conditions that give
rise to abrupt or discontinuous
changes
• Incorporate best knowledge of
climate processes and feedbacks
into models
• Improve capacity to develop and
apply models
• Improve knowledge of sensitivity of ecosystems
• Provide scientific input for
evaluating adaptation options
• Improve understanding of
how changes in ecosystems
and human infrastructure
interact over long periods of
time
• Develop resources to support adaptive management and
planning, and transition these resources from research to
application
• Prepare scientific syntheses
and assessments
• Develop and evaluate methods
to support policymaking and
demonstrate these methods
with case studies
Guidelines for Preparation of
Synthesis and Assessment Products
• Government documents; mixture of external
and Federal actors involved in preparation
• Lead agencies take responsibility
• Transparency in all steps of production
– Framing: define product and customer; community
input; draft prospectus for comment
– Drafting: open to LA nominations and input of
materials
– Review: open, transparent, and traceable
– Production: consistent format
• Draft guidelines will be available for public
comment (Fed. Register and CCSP website)
Implementation Concerns
• CCSP is promising “final” answers to questions
that require long-term research
– NO. Long-term nature is acknowledged. Products
will provide updates on important and/or rapidly
evolving scientific issues
• CCSP is competing with IPCC or other
processes
– CCSP products will focus on key sub-issues in
phase 1 or follow-up with greater detail in phase 2
than is possible in the international assessments
• CCSP “approval” of science
– Transparency of process and use of structure that
includes technical documents and policy summaries
Framework for Supporting
“Adaptive Management”
Conclusions
• Research has progressed
• Important uncertainties remain and are being
addressed
• Applied research is already informing policy
makers and resource managers
• Deciding when we know “enough” is a value
judgment not a scientific issue
• CCSP is at the center of controversy; the
outcome of debate has meaning beyond the
immediate climate science and policy issues
For Further Information
• Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
– http://www.ipcc.ch
• US Global Change Research
Program
– Our Changing Planet annual
report
– http://www.usgcrp.gov
• Climate Change Science
Program
– http://www.climatescience.g
ov
• Global Change Research
Information Office
– http://www.gcrio.org