Transcript BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE THAT WILL MAKE COMMUNITIES SAFER

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
THAT WILL MAKE
COMMUNITIES SAFER
TOOLS FOR IMPROVING EDUCATIONAL
SURGES AND MOVE COMMUNITIES
TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
POLICY TOOLS FOR RISK
REDUCTION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•EDUCATION
•MITIGATION
•MONITORING
•ADAPTATION
BUILDING A CULTURE FOR
NATURAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
RISK ASSESSMENT
• VULNERABILITY
• COST
• EXPOSURE
NATURAL
HAZARDS
• EVENT
EXPECTED
LOSS
• BENEFIT
•CONSEQUENCES
POLICY ASSESSMENT
POLICY
ADOPTION
GOAL: KNOWLEDGE THAT COMMUNITIES CAN
USE
FLOODS
IMPROVE COMMUNITY
POLICIES
INCREASED TECHNICAL
AND POLITICL CAPACITY
OF COMMUNITY TO COPE
INCREASED OWNERSHIP
AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE
AND EXPERIENCE
SEVERE WIND STORMS
EARTHQUAKES
DROUGHTS
LANDSLIDES
WILDFIRES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS
CLIMATE CHANGE
SPECIAL SITUATIONS
• AFRICA
• NORTH AMERICA
• SOUTH AMERICA
• EUROPE
• OCEANIA
• CARIBBEAN
• ASIA
 RUSSIA
 INDIA
 CHINA
 SOUTHEAST
ASIA
•A report of the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program
•June 20, 2008
• A joint effort of more than a dozen
government agencies
• for the report, go online to
www.usgcrp.gov
•"Heat waves and heavy
downpours are very
likely to increase in
frequency and
intensity.”
"Substantial areas of
North America are likely
to have more frequent
droughts of greater
severity.”
•
“Hurricane wind
speeds, rainfall
intensity, and storm
surge levels are likely to
increase.”
•
• The
strongest winter storms
are likely to become more
frequent, with stronger winds
and more extreme wave
heights."
Soil amplification of
earthquake ground
shaking is likely to be
more pervasive.
•
Landslides triggered in
earthquakes or by
flooding are likely to be
more extensive.
•
The impacts of tsunami
wave run up is likely to
be more extensive.
•
“By the end of this century
rainfall amounts expected to
occur every 20 years now
could be taking place every
five years.”
• “An increase in frequency
can lead to more frequent
occurrences of flooding
events such as those that
occurred in the Midwest
during 2009.“
Drought is the result of the
interaction of rainfall, which
can be highly variable, and
human systems, which can be
very vulnerable to changes in
rainfall.
Drought is related to
climatic variability that
usually is occurring far from
the community or the area
being impacted by drought.
CAUSES
OF RISK
PROLONGED LACK OF
PRECIPITATION
LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE
LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
DROUGHTS
CASE HISTORIES
DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF
GROUND WATER
LOSS OF VEGETATION
INSECT INFESTATION
PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND
BY DESERTIFICATION
• CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY EL
NINO AND LA NINA CONDITIONS
• LOCATIONS IN SHADOW OF MOUNTAIN
RANGE
Earthquakes occur as the result of
interactions between and within
tectonic plates in the lithosphere,
which are slowly converging,
diverging, or sliding past each other
as a result of stresses created by
ongoing heat flow within the Earth.
CAUSES
OF RISK
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
CASE HISTORIES
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO
NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
• ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING
CAUSED BY A SHALLOW FOCAL
DEPTH
• ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING
CAUSED BY BEING IN OR CLOSE TO
THE FAULT RUPTURE ZONE
• AMPLIFICATION OF GROUND
SHAKING CAUSED BY SOFT SOILS
• LONG DURATION ACCELERATION
CAUSED BY FLING OF FAULT
• BUILDINGS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND
LATERAL GROUND SHAKING
• LIFELINE SYSTEMS UNABLE TO
WITHSTAND PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH FAULT RUPTURE,
LANDSLIDES, AND LIQUEFACTION
CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
EFFECTS OF WATER ON
STRUCTURE & CONTENTS
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
HEALTH PROBLEMS, DEATH
AND INJURY
LOSS FUNCTION OF
INFRASTRUCTURE
VULNERABILITY OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
Flooding occurs when the
local river channels,
floodplains, wetlands, and
water tables are not able to
contain, store, or transmit local
precipitation and runoff.
• COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE LOCATED IN THE
FLOODPLAIN
• PROLONGED RAINFALL
• EXTENDED DRAINAGE IN A LARGE
BASIN
• HIGH VELOCITY FLOW
BOOK OF KNOWLEDE
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
CAUSES
OF RISK
WIND AND WATER INSIDE
BUILDING ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
CASE HISTORIES
UNDERESTIMATING WIND
SPEEDS AND STORM SURGE
FLOODING FROM STORM
SURGE AND RAIN
QUALITY OF WORKMANSHIP
IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010
•
•
•
•
Alex (H) June 21
Bonnie July 27
Colin Aug 3
Danielle (H)
Aug 21
• Earl (H) Aug.29
• Fiona Aug 30
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010
•
•
•
•
•
•
Gaston Sept 1
Hermine Sept 6
Igor H Sept 8
Julia H Sept 12
Karl Sept 14
Lisa (Pending)
CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING ON UNSTABLE
SLOPES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO FALLS
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO TOPPLES
LANDSLIDES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO SPREADS
CASE HISTORIES
SOIL AND ROCK
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
OR GROUND SHAKING
BARE, OVERSTEEPENED
SLOPES
LANDSLIDES ALTER LAND
SURFACES: 2005
Once tropical
forests (a carbon
sink) are cleared for
cattle ranching or
community
development, the
cleared land can
becomes a major
source of methane,
a greenhouse gas.
• SLOPES COVERED WITH LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOIL AND ROCK
• REDUCTION IN SLOPE STABILITY
CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
OR EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE
WILDFIRES
CAUSES
OF RISK
LIGHTNING
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBANWILDLANDS INTERFACE
WILDFIRES
CASE HISTORIES
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
CUTTING FORESTS
DENUDED SLOPES
HOT, DRY WEATHER
t
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
CAUSES
OF RISK
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
(TEPHRA)
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC PLUME
AND ASH (AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
INADEQUATE WARNING ANO
EVACUATION
AFTER 10,000 YEAR DORMANCY,
CHAITEN ERUPTS IN CHILE:
2008
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE
TSUNAMIS
CAUSES
OF RISK
HIGH VELOCITY OF
INCOMING WAVES
DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP
AND RUNOFF
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
CASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE WARNING
SYSTEMS
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
SOLOMON ISLANDS: 2007
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
POLICIES FOR RISK
MANAGEMENT
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREVENTION & MITIGATION
•PREPAREDNESS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION