Transcript 42191

GLOBAL VULNERABILITY
REDUCTION (Part 3)
A HIGH BENEFIT- TO- COST LEGACY
TO LEAVE THE NEXT GENERATION
ACCELERATING REDUCTION OF EVERY
COMMUNITY’S VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL
HAZARDS WILL BE THE KEY TO SURVIVAL FOR
MILLIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
MAY 27, 2011
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
FROM EXPERIENCE TO BOOKS
OF KNOWLEDGE TO…STOP.
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
POLICIES FOR REDUCING
VULNERABILITY & RISK
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•EDUCATION/TRAINING
•PREVENTION/MITIGATION
•MONITORING
•ADAPTATION
OUR LEGACY: A GLOBAL REDUCTION OF
COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES
RISK ASSESSMENT
• VULNERABILITY
• COST
• EXPOSURE
NATURAL
HAZARDS
• EVENT
EXPECTED
LOSS
• BENEFIT
•CONSEQUENCES
POLICY ASSESSMENT
POLICY
ADOPTION
AND
IMPLEMENTATION
•A report of the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program
•June 20, 2008
• A joint effort of more than a dozen
government agencies
• for the report, go online to
www.usgcrp.gov
•"Heat waves and
heavy downpours are
very likely to increase
in frequency and in
intensity.”
"Substantial areas of
North America are
likely to have more
frequent droughts of
greater severity.”
•
“Hurricane wind
speeds, rainfall
intensity, and storm
surge levels are likely
to increase.”
•
• The
strongest winter storms
are likely to become more
frequent, with stronger winds
and more extreme wave
heights."
Soil amplification of
earthquake ground
shaking is likely to be
more wide spread.
•
Landslides triggered
in earthquakes or by
flooding are likely to
be more extensive.
•
The impacts of
tsunami wave run up
is likely to be more
extensive.
•
“By the end of this century
rainfall amounts expected to
occur every 20 years now
could be taking place every
five years.”
• “An increase in frequency
can lead to more frequent
occurrences of flooding
events such as those that
occurred in the Midwest
during 2009 AND 2011.”
Drought is the result of the
interaction of rainfall, which
can be highly variable, and
human systems, which can be
very vulnerable to changes in
rainfall.
Drought is related to
climatic variability that
usually is occurring far from
the community or the area
being impacted by drought.
CAUSES
OF RISK
PROLONGED LACK OF
PRECIPITATION
LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE
LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
DROUGHTS
CASE HISTORIES
DEPLETION &POLLUTION OF
GROUND WATER
LOSS OF VEGETATION
INSECT INFESTATION
PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND
BY DESERTIFICATION
• CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY EL
NINO AND LA NINA CONDITIONS (i.e.,
WARMING AND COOLING OF THE
PACIFIC OCEAN)
• LOCATIONS IN SHADOW OF MOUNTAIN
RANGE
Earthquakes occur as the result of
interactions between and within
tectonic plates in the lithosphere
that are slowly converging,
diverging, or sliding past each other
as a result of stresses created by
ongoing heat flow within the Earth.
CAUSES
OF RISK
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
CASE HISTORIES
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO
NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE
ON TSUNAMIS
CAUSES
OF RISK
HIGH VELOCITY OF
INCOMING WAVES
DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP
AND RUNOFF
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
CASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE WARNING
SYSTEMS
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
TSUNAMI: CHILE, 2011
• ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING
CAUSED BY A SHALLOW FOCAL
DEPTH.
• ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING
CAUSED BY BEING IN OR CLOSE TO
THE FAULT RUPTURE ZONE WHERE
CONDITIONS FOR OCCURRENCE OF
THE “KILLER PULSE” ARE BEST.
• AMPLIFICATION OF GROUND
SHAKING CAUSED BY SOFT SOILS
• LONG--DURATION ACCELERATION
PULSE CAUSED BY FLING OF THE
FAULT
• BUILDINGS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND
LATERAL GROUND SHAKING
• LIFELINE SYSTEMS UNABLE TO
WITHSTAND PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH FAULT RUPTURE,
LANDSLIDES, AND LIQUEFACTION
CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
EFFECTS OF WATER ON
STRUCTURE & CONTENTS
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
HEALTH PROBLEMS, DEATH
AND INJURY
LOSS FUNCTION OF
INFRASTRUCTURE
VULNERABILITY OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
Flooding occurs when the local
river channels, floodplains,
wetlands, and water tables are
not able to contain, store, or
transmit local precipitation
and runoff.
• COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE LOCATED IN THE
FLOODPLAIN
• PROLONGED RAINFALL
• EXTENDED DRAINAGE IN A LARGE
BASIN
• HIGH VELOCITY FLOW
BOOK OF KNOWLEDE
ON SEVERE WINDSTORMS
CAUSES
OF RISK
WIND AND WATER INSIDE
BUILDING ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
CASE HISTORIES
UNDERESTIMATING WIND
SPEEDS AND STORM SURGE
FLOODING FROM STORM
SURGE AND RAIN
QUALITY OF WORKMANSHIP
IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010
•
•
•
•
Alex (H) June 21
Bonnie July 27
Colin Aug 3
Danielle (H)
Aug 21
• Earl (H) Aug.29
• Fiona Aug 30
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010
•
•
•
•
•
•
Gaston Sept 1
Hermine Sept 6
Igor H Sept 8
Julia H Sept 12
Karl Sept 14
Lisa Sept 21
CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING ON UNSTABLE
SLOPES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO FALLS
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO TOPPLES
LANDSLIDES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO SPREADS
CASE HISTORIES
SOIL AND ROCK
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
OR GROUND SHAKING
BARE, OVERSTEEPENED
SLOPES
LANDSLIDES: RIO DE JANEIRO
STATE, BRAZIL; 2011
Once tropical
forests (a carbon
sink) are cleared for
cattle ranching or
community
development, the
cleared land can
becomes a major
source of methane,
a greenhouse gas.
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE
ON WILDFIRES
CAUSES
OF RISK
LIGHTNING
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBANWILDLANDS INTERFACE
WILDFIRES
CASE HISTORIES
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
CUTTING FORESTS
DENUDED SLOPES
HOT, DRY WEATHER
t
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE
ON VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
CAUSES
OF RISK
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
(TEPHRA)
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC PLUME
AND ASH (AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
INADEQUATE WARNING ANO
EVACUATION
GRIMSVOTN’S ASH PLUME REACHED 20 KM (12 MI): MAY 21, 2011