Transcript BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
A POLICY TOOL FOR
COMMUNITIES TO IMPROVE
EDUCATION SURGES,
PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION,
EM. RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY
FOR NATURAL DISASTERS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
POLICY TOOLS FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•EDUCATION
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EM RESPONSE
•RECOVERY
BUILDING A CULTURE FOR
NATURAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
RISK ASSESSMENT
• VULNERABILITY
• COST
• EXPOSURE
NATURAL
HAZARDS
• EVENT
EXPECTED
LOSS
• BENEFIT
•CONSEQUENCES
POLICY ASSESSMENT
POLICY FOR
DIS.
RESILIENCE
• CLIMATE CHANGE
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DROUGHTS
EARTHQUAKES
FLOODS
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
WILDFIRES
LANDSLIDES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
TSUNAMIS
• NORTH AMERICA
• SOUTH AMERICA
• EUROPE
• OCEANIA
• CARIBBEAN
• ASIA
 RUSSIA
 INDIA
 CHINA
 SOUTHEAST ASIA
•A report of the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program
•June 20, 2008
• A joint effort of more than a dozen
government agencies
• for the report, go online to
www.usgcrp.gov
•"Heat waves and
heavy downpours are
very likely to increase
in frequency and
intensity.”
"Substantial areas of
North America are
likely to have more
frequent droughts of
greater severity.”
•
“Hurricane wind
speeds, rainfall
intensity, and storm
surge levels are likely
to increase.”
•
• The
strongest winter storms
are likely to become more
frequent, with stronger winds
and more extreme wave
heights."
Soil amplification of
earthquake ground
shaking is likely to be
more pervasive.
Landslides triggered
in earthquakes are
likely to be more
extensive.
The impacts of
tsunami wave run up
will be more
extensive.
“By the end of this century
rainfall amounts expected to
occur every 20 years now
could be taking place every
five years.”
• “An increase in frequency
can lead to more frequent
occurrences of flooding
events such as those that
occurred worldwide during
2007.“
Drought is the result of the
interaction of rainfall, which
can be highly variable, and
human systems, which can be
very vulnerable to changes in
rainfall.
Drought is related to
climatic variability that
usually is occurring far from
the community or the area
being impacted by drought.
CAUSES
OF RISK
PROLONGED LACK OF
PRECIPITATION
LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE
LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
DROUGHTS
CASE HISTORIES
DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF
GROUND WATER
LOSS OF VEGETATION
INSECT INFESTATION
PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND
BY DESERTIFICATION
• CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY EL
NINO OR LA NINA
• LOCATIONS IN SHADOW OF MOUNTAIN
RANGE
Earthquakes occur as the result of
interactions between and within
tectonic plates in the lithosphere,
which are slowly converging,
diverging, or sliding past each other
as a result of stresses created by
ongoing heat flow within the Earth.
CAUSES
OF RISK
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
CASE HISTORIES
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO
NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
• ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING
CAUSED BY A SHALLOW FOCAL
DEPTH
• ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING
CAUSED BY BEING IN OR CLOSE TO
THE FAULT RUPTURE ZONE
• AMPLIFICATION OF GROUND
SHAKING CAUSED BY SOFT SOILS
• LONG DURATION ACCELERATION
CAUSED BY FLING OF FAULT
• BUILDINGS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND
LATERAL GROUND SHAKING
• LIFELINE SYSTEMS UNABLE TO
WITHSTAND PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH FAULT RUPTURE,
LANDSLIDES, AND LIQUEFACTION
CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
EFFECTS OF WATER ON
STRUCTURE & CONTENTS
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
HEALTH PROBLEMS, DEATH
AND INJURY
LOSS FUNCTION OF
INFRASTRUCTURE
VULNERABILITY OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
Flooding occurs when the
local river channels,
floodplains, wetlands, and
water tables are not able to
contain, store, or transmit local
precipitation and runoff.
FLOODS IN NORTH KOREA:
AUGUST 7-14, 2007
FLOODING IN CHINA: JULY 2007
FLOODING IN CHINA: JUNE –
JULY 2007
FLOODING IN CHINA: JULY 2007
(50,000 kg of dead fish)
FLOODING IN HENLEY ON THAMES,
ENGLAND: JULY 2007
FLOODING: TEWKESBURY,
ENGLAND: JULY 2007
FLOODING IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE,
ENGLAND: JULY 2007
FLOODING AND OIL SPILL IN
COFFEYVILLE, KANSAS: JULY 2007
FLOODING IN THE SUDAN: JULY
2007
FLOODING IN IRAN: JUNE 2007
FLOODING IN MARBLE FALLS,
TEXAS: JUNE 2007
FLOODING IN LAGOS, NIGERIA:
JUNE 2007
FLOODING IN PAKISTAN: JUNE
2007
FLOODING IN KANSAS, USA:
MAY 2007
FLOODING IN SALINAS,
KANSAS: MAY 2007
FLOODING IN BOLIVIA: FEBRUARY
2007
• COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE LOCATED IN THE
FLOODPLAIN
• PROLONGED RAINFALL
• A LARGE DRAINAGE BASIN
• HIGH VELOCITY FLOW
BOOK OF KNOWLEDE
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
CAUSES
OF RISK
WIND AND WATER INSIDE
BUILDING ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
CASE HISTORIES
UNDERESTIMATING WIND
SPEEDS AND STORM SURGE
FLOODING FROM STORM
SURGE AND RAIN
QUALITY OF WORKMANSHIP
IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
• AN EXTRAORDINARY STORM SURGE
• BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE
THAT ARE VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS AND FLOODING
• A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
• LARGE VOLUME MUDFLOWS
• INADEQUATE EVACUATION
CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING ON UNSTABLE
SLOPES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO FALLS
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO TOPPLES
LANDSLIDES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO SPREADS
CASE HISTORIES
SOIL AND ROCK
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
OR GROUND SHAKING
BARE, OVERSTEEPENED
SLOPES
LANDSLIDES ALTER LAND
SURFACES
Once tropical
forests (a carbon
sink) are cleared for
cattle ranching or
community
development, the
cleared land can
becomes a major
source of methane,
a greenhouse gas.
• SLOPES COVERED WITH LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOIL AND ROCK
• REDUCTION IN SLOPE STABILITY
CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
OR EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE
WILDFIRES
CAUSES
OF RISK
LIGHTNING
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBANWILDLANDS INTERFACE
WILDFIRES
CASE HISTORIES
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
CUTTING FORESTS
DENUDED SLOPES
HOT, DRY WEATHER
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
CAUSES
OF RISK
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
(TEPHRA)
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC PLUME
AND ASH (AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
INADEQUATE WARNING ANO
EVACUATION
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE
TSUNAMIS
CAUSES
OF RISK
HIGH VELOCITY OF
INCOMING WAVES
DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP
AND RUNOFF
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
CASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE WARNING
SYSTEMS
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
POLICIES FOR RISK
MANAGEMENT
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREVENTION & MITIGATION
•PREPAREDNESS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION